BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB)is a common medical emergency and early assessment of its outcomes is vital for treatment decisions.AIM To develop a new scoring system to predict its prognosis.METHODS ...BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB)is a common medical emergency and early assessment of its outcomes is vital for treatment decisions.AIM To develop a new scoring system to predict its prognosis.METHODS In this retrospective study,692 patients with UGIB were enrolled from two cen-ters and divided into a training(n=591)and a validation cohort(n=101).The clinical data were collected to develop new prognostic prediction models.The en-dpoint was compound outcome defined as(1)demand for emergency surgery or vascular intervention,(2)being transferred to the intensive care unit,or(3)death during hos-pitalization.The models’predictive ability was compared with previously esta-blished scores by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.RESULTS Totally 22.2%(131/591)patients in the training cohort and 22.8%(23/101)in the validation cohort presented poor outcomes.Based on the stepwise-forward Lo-gistic regression analysis,eight predictors were integrated to determine a new post-endoscopic prognostic scoring system(MH-STRALP);a nomogram was de-termined to present the model.Compared with the previous scores(GBS,Rock-all,ABC,AIMS65,and PNED score),MH-STRALP showed the best prognostic prediction ability with area under the ROC curves(AUROCs)of 0.899 and 0.826 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively.According to the calibration cur-ve,decision curve analysis,and internal cross-validation,the nomogram showed good calibration ability and net clinical benefit in both cohorts.After removing the endoscopic indicators,the pre-endoscopic model(pre-MH-STRALP score)was conducted.Similarly,the pre-MHSTRALP score showed better predictive value(AUROCs of 0.868 and 0.767 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively)than the other pre-endoscopic scores.CONCLUSION The MH-STRALP score and pre-MH-STRALP score are simple,convenient,and accurate tools for prognosis prediction of UGIB,and may be applied for early decision on its management strategies.展开更多
基金Supported by Key Disciplines Group Construction Project of Shanghai Pudong New Area Health Commission,No.PWZxq2022-06Medical discipline Construction Project of Pudong Health Committee of Shanghai,No.PWYgf2021-02+1 种基金Joint Tackling Project of Pudong Health Committee of Shanghai,No.PW2022D08the Medical Innovation Research Project of the Shanghai Science and Technology Commission,No.22Y11908400.
文摘BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB)is a common medical emergency and early assessment of its outcomes is vital for treatment decisions.AIM To develop a new scoring system to predict its prognosis.METHODS In this retrospective study,692 patients with UGIB were enrolled from two cen-ters and divided into a training(n=591)and a validation cohort(n=101).The clinical data were collected to develop new prognostic prediction models.The en-dpoint was compound outcome defined as(1)demand for emergency surgery or vascular intervention,(2)being transferred to the intensive care unit,or(3)death during hos-pitalization.The models’predictive ability was compared with previously esta-blished scores by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.RESULTS Totally 22.2%(131/591)patients in the training cohort and 22.8%(23/101)in the validation cohort presented poor outcomes.Based on the stepwise-forward Lo-gistic regression analysis,eight predictors were integrated to determine a new post-endoscopic prognostic scoring system(MH-STRALP);a nomogram was de-termined to present the model.Compared with the previous scores(GBS,Rock-all,ABC,AIMS65,and PNED score),MH-STRALP showed the best prognostic prediction ability with area under the ROC curves(AUROCs)of 0.899 and 0.826 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively.According to the calibration cur-ve,decision curve analysis,and internal cross-validation,the nomogram showed good calibration ability and net clinical benefit in both cohorts.After removing the endoscopic indicators,the pre-endoscopic model(pre-MH-STRALP score)was conducted.Similarly,the pre-MHSTRALP score showed better predictive value(AUROCs of 0.868 and 0.767 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively)than the other pre-endoscopic scores.CONCLUSION The MH-STRALP score and pre-MH-STRALP score are simple,convenient,and accurate tools for prognosis prediction of UGIB,and may be applied for early decision on its management strategies.
