Fatal traffic accidents in urban areas can adversely affect the urban road traffic system and pose many challenges for urban traffic management.Therefore,it is necessary to first classify emergency responses to such a...Fatal traffic accidents in urban areas can adversely affect the urban road traffic system and pose many challenges for urban traffic management.Therefore,it is necessary to first classify emergency responses to such accidents and then handle them quickly and correctly.The aim of this paper is to develop an evaluation index system and to use appropriate methods to investigate emergency-response classifications to fatal traffic accidents in Chinese urban areas.This study used a multilevel hierarchical structural model to determine emergency-response classification.In the model,accident attributes,urban road network vulnerability,and institutional resilience were used as classification criteria.Each evaluation indicator was selected according to importance ranking and independence screening and was given an interpretation and a quantitative criterion.The Fuzzy Delphi Method was used to rank the importance of the evaluation indices and the combined weight of each index was calculated using the G1 method.Finally,the case of a fatal traffic accident was used to validate the model.The results showed that the multilevel hierarchical structural model,Fuzzy Delphi Method,and G1 method can effectively address the problem of emergency-response classification.Because of its simplicity and adaptability,the approach presented here could be useful for decisionmakers and practitioners for determining emergency-response classifications.展开更多
The hydrological uncertainty about NASH model parameters is investigated and addressed in the paper through “ideal data” concept by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in an ap...The hydrological uncertainty about NASH model parameters is investigated and addressed in the paper through “ideal data” concept by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in an application to the small Yanduhe research catchment in Yangtze River, China. And a suitable likelihood measure is assured here to reduce the uncertainty coming from the parameters relationship. “Ideal data” is assumed to be no error for the input-output data and model structure. The relationship between parameters k and n of NASH model is clearly quantitatively demonstrated based on the real data and it shows the existence of uncertainty factors different from the parameter one. Ideal data research results show that the accuracy of data and model structure are the two important preconditions for parameter estimation. And with suitable likelihood measure, the parameter uncertainty could be decreased or even disappeared. Moreover it is shown how distributions of predicted discharge errors are non-Gaussian and vary in shape with time and discharge under the single existence of parameter uncertainty or under the existence of all uncertainties.展开更多
基金supported by the Fifth 333 High-Level Talents Project of Jiangsu Province under Grant BRA2017443the Key Research Base of Jiangsu University Philosophy and Social Science under Grant 2018ZDJD-B007.
文摘Fatal traffic accidents in urban areas can adversely affect the urban road traffic system and pose many challenges for urban traffic management.Therefore,it is necessary to first classify emergency responses to such accidents and then handle them quickly and correctly.The aim of this paper is to develop an evaluation index system and to use appropriate methods to investigate emergency-response classifications to fatal traffic accidents in Chinese urban areas.This study used a multilevel hierarchical structural model to determine emergency-response classification.In the model,accident attributes,urban road network vulnerability,and institutional resilience were used as classification criteria.Each evaluation indicator was selected according to importance ranking and independence screening and was given an interpretation and a quantitative criterion.The Fuzzy Delphi Method was used to rank the importance of the evaluation indices and the combined weight of each index was calculated using the G1 method.Finally,the case of a fatal traffic accident was used to validate the model.The results showed that the multilevel hierarchical structural model,Fuzzy Delphi Method,and G1 method can effectively address the problem of emergency-response classification.Because of its simplicity and adaptability,the approach presented here could be useful for decisionmakers and practitioners for determining emergency-response classifications.
文摘The hydrological uncertainty about NASH model parameters is investigated and addressed in the paper through “ideal data” concept by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in an application to the small Yanduhe research catchment in Yangtze River, China. And a suitable likelihood measure is assured here to reduce the uncertainty coming from the parameters relationship. “Ideal data” is assumed to be no error for the input-output data and model structure. The relationship between parameters k and n of NASH model is clearly quantitatively demonstrated based on the real data and it shows the existence of uncertainty factors different from the parameter one. Ideal data research results show that the accuracy of data and model structure are the two important preconditions for parameter estimation. And with suitable likelihood measure, the parameter uncertainty could be decreased or even disappeared. Moreover it is shown how distributions of predicted discharge errors are non-Gaussian and vary in shape with time and discharge under the single existence of parameter uncertainty or under the existence of all uncertainties.
