An informal review is presented of recent developments in numerical simulation of the global atmospheric circulation with very fine numerical resolution models, The focus is on results obtained recently with versions ...An informal review is presented of recent developments in numerical simulation of the global atmospheric circulation with very fine numerical resolution models, The focus is on results obtained recently with versions of the GFDL SKYHI model and the Atmospheric Model for the Earth Simulator （AFES） global atmospheric models. These models have been run with effective horizontal grid resolution of -10-40 km and fine vertical resolution. The results presented demonstrate the utility of such models for the study of a diverse range of phenomena, Specifically the models are shown to simulate the development of tropical cyclones with peak winds and minimum central pressures comparable to those of the most intense hurricanes actually observed, More fundamentally, the spectrum of energy content in the mesoscale in the flow can be reproduced by these models down to near the smallest explicitly-resolved horizontal scales, in the middle atmosphere it is shown that increasing horizontal resolution can lead to significantly improved overall simulation of the global-scale circulation, The application of the models to two specific problems requiring very fine resolution global will be discussed, The spatial and temporal variability of the vertical eddy flux of zonal momentum associated with gravity waves near the tropopause is evaluated in the very fine resolution AFES model, This is a subject of great importance for understanding and modelling the flow in the middle atmosphere, Then the simulation of the small scale variations of the semidiurnal surface pressure oscillation is analyzed, and the signature of significant topographic modulation of the semidiurnal atmospheric tide is identified.展开更多
A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how w...A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how well the actual realized global warming could be predicted just by analysis of the control results. This is a test, within a model context, of proposals that have been advanced to use knowledge of the present day climate to make ＂empirical＂ estimates of global climate sensitivity. The scaling of the top-of-the-atmosphere infrared flux and the planetary albedo as functions of surface temperature was inferred by examining four different temporal and geographical variations of the control simulations. Each of these inferences greatly overestimates the climate sensitivity of the model, largely because of the behavior of the cloud albedo. In each inference the control results suggest that cloudiness and albedo decrease with increasing surface temperature. However, the experiment with the increased solar constant actually has higher albedo and more cloudiness at most latitudes. The increased albedo is a strong negative feedback, and this helps account for the rather weak sensitivity of the climate in the NCAR model. To the extent that these model results apply to the real world, they suggest empirical evaluation of the scaling of global-mean radiative properties with surface temperature in the present day climate provides little useful guidance for estimates of the actual climate sensitivity to global changes.展开更多
基金National Science Foundation Grant ATM- 02-19120the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth ScienceTechnology （JAMSTEC） through its sponsorship of the International Pacific Research Center.
文摘An informal review is presented of recent developments in numerical simulation of the global atmospheric circulation with very fine numerical resolution models, The focus is on results obtained recently with versions of the GFDL SKYHI model and the Atmospheric Model for the Earth Simulator （AFES） global atmospheric models. These models have been run with effective horizontal grid resolution of -10-40 km and fine vertical resolution. The results presented demonstrate the utility of such models for the study of a diverse range of phenomena, Specifically the models are shown to simulate the development of tropical cyclones with peak winds and minimum central pressures comparable to those of the most intense hurricanes actually observed, More fundamentally, the spectrum of energy content in the mesoscale in the flow can be reproduced by these models down to near the smallest explicitly-resolved horizontal scales, in the middle atmosphere it is shown that increasing horizontal resolution can lead to significantly improved overall simulation of the global-scale circulation, The application of the models to two specific problems requiring very fine resolution global will be discussed, The spatial and temporal variability of the vertical eddy flux of zonal momentum associated with gravity waves near the tropopause is evaluated in the very fine resolution AFES model, This is a subject of great importance for understanding and modelling the flow in the middle atmosphere, Then the simulation of the small scale variations of the semidiurnal surface pressure oscillation is analyzed, and the signature of significant topographic modulation of the semidiurnal atmospheric tide is identified.
文摘A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how well the actual realized global warming could be predicted just by analysis of the control results. This is a test, within a model context, of proposals that have been advanced to use knowledge of the present day climate to make ＂empirical＂ estimates of global climate sensitivity. The scaling of the top-of-the-atmosphere infrared flux and the planetary albedo as functions of surface temperature was inferred by examining four different temporal and geographical variations of the control simulations. Each of these inferences greatly overestimates the climate sensitivity of the model, largely because of the behavior of the cloud albedo. In each inference the control results suggest that cloudiness and albedo decrease with increasing surface temperature. However, the experiment with the increased solar constant actually has higher albedo and more cloudiness at most latitudes. The increased albedo is a strong negative feedback, and this helps account for the rather weak sensitivity of the climate in the NCAR model. To the extent that these model results apply to the real world, they suggest empirical evaluation of the scaling of global-mean radiative properties with surface temperature in the present day climate provides little useful guidance for estimates of the actual climate sensitivity to global changes.
