The interannual variability in typhoon landfalls over China is investigated using historical and modern records. For the purpose of substantiating and elaborating upon the claim of north to south variation in tropical...The interannual variability in typhoon landfalls over China is investigated using historical and modern records. For the purpose of substantiating and elaborating upon the claim of north to south variation in tropical cyclone activity over China, a north-to-south anti-correlation in yearly activity is confirmed in the historical cyclone records. When cyclone activity over the province of Guangdong is high （low）, it tends to be low （high） over the province of Fujian. A similar spatial variation is identified in the modern records using a factor analysis model, which delineates typhoon activity over the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan from the activity over the northern provinces of Fujian, Taiwan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong. A landfall index of typhoon activity representing the degree to which each year follows this pattern of activity is used to identify correlated climate variables. A useful statistical regression model that includes sea-level pressure differences between Mongolia and western China and sea-surface temperature （SST） over the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the summer explains 26% of the interannual variability of the landfall index. It is suggested that a stronger than normal north-south pressure gradient increases the surface easterly wind flow over northern China： this, coupled with lower SST over the Pacific, favors typhoons taking a more westerly track toward southern China.展开更多
Even though the degree of damage inflicted by North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is highly dependent upon track location and proximity to land, the spatial characteristics of TCs are generally understudied. We inv...Even though the degree of damage inflicted by North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is highly dependent upon track location and proximity to land, the spatial characteristics of TCs are generally understudied. We investigated the spatial relationships between landfall locations and track patterns of all Cape Verde-type landfalling and coastal TCs that have affected the continental coastline of the western Atlantic Basin by region for the period 1851-2008. The degree of recurvature for these TCs increases progressively from the Central America/Caribbean coast (CA) through the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Florida peninsula (FLOR), and Atlantic (ATL) coasts. The date (month) of occurrence shows similar increases from the GOM through ATL. These patterns for landfall location, track pattern, and occurrence date generally follow the intra-seasonal movement and intensity variations of the Bermuda High (BH), as represented by increasing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values from CA through FLOR. Analysis suggests that the region of landfall is primarily controlled by two factors: the amplitude of track recurvature and the longitude at which recurvature begins to dominate track shape. Both of these important steering controls are predominantly influenced by the strength and position of the BH, with increasing strength and/or more northeasterly position of the BH progressively driving landfall from Central America through the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic seaboard out to the open sea. The paleorecord suggests that the latitudinal position of the BH exerts an important control over the location of hurricane landfall along the western North Atlantic on millennial time scales. This suggests that global warming may result in a northern shift in TC tracks and increased frequency of landfalls in northern locations.展开更多
青藏高原中部的草甸/草原混合生态群落,对气候变化非常敏感.孢粉记录显示草原发育时期,莎草减少,区域气候是相对干旱的,在时间上对应季风相对弱的时期.依据唐古拉山垭口湖、阿洪错和错那3个淡水湖泊钻孔孢粉分析,定量重建的温度和降水指...青藏高原中部的草甸/草原混合生态群落,对气候变化非常敏感.孢粉记录显示草原发育时期,莎草减少,区域气候是相对干旱的,在时间上对应季风相对弱的时期.依据唐古拉山垭口湖、阿洪错和错那3个淡水湖泊钻孔孢粉分析,定量重建的温度和降水指标,探讨该地区8200 cal a BP以来的植被与气候变化.8200～6500 cal a BP,尤其是8200～7200 cal a BP,植被以草甸/草原混合生态群落为主,显示强季风控制着青藏高原中部;6000～4900,4400～3900以及2800～2400 cal a BP时期区域植被以草原植被为主,应是3次百年尺度的干旱事件;4900～4400 cal a BP期间植被类型由草原向草甸转变;6500～5400和3000～1600 cal a BP出现两次大的变干事件;数值摸拟估计,高原中部接近于现今的环境,最早可能出现在6500cal a BP,自3000cal a BP以后高原中部季风性降水和湿度逐渐减少至现今水平,可能在700～300cal a BP出现一次小冰期变冷事件.展开更多
发生在大约4200年前的一场持续干旱可能是当时史前文明快速衰落的重要推手,这在全球许多区域均有记录,但在中国西北干旱区是否存在该事件依然缺乏有力证据。本文通过分析托勒库勒湖沉积地层的孢粉,发现新疆地区也存在类似4.2 ka BP气候...发生在大约4200年前的一场持续干旱可能是当时史前文明快速衰落的重要推手,这在全球许多区域均有记录,但在中国西北干旱区是否存在该事件依然缺乏有力证据。本文通过分析托勒库勒湖沉积地层的孢粉,发现新疆地区也存在类似4.2 ka BP气候事件的记录。4.5—3.8 cal ka BP期间的孢粉谱与前后时段相比有显著差异,禾本科和蒿属花粉含量快速降低、藜科急剧增加、A/C值降低;区域环境短期内变得极为寒冷-干旱,先前的草原/荒漠草原演化为荒漠。对比也发现,尽管这一事件在不同研究点的开始和结束时间略有差异,但变化特征具有较好的一致性。目前,关于这次事件的驱动机制仍不清楚,还需在新疆及其他敏感区域开展更多古气候研究。展开更多
基金provided by the U.S.National Science Foundation(BCS-0213980).
文摘The interannual variability in typhoon landfalls over China is investigated using historical and modern records. For the purpose of substantiating and elaborating upon the claim of north to south variation in tropical cyclone activity over China, a north-to-south anti-correlation in yearly activity is confirmed in the historical cyclone records. When cyclone activity over the province of Guangdong is high （low）, it tends to be low （high） over the province of Fujian. A similar spatial variation is identified in the modern records using a factor analysis model, which delineates typhoon activity over the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan from the activity over the northern provinces of Fujian, Taiwan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong. A landfall index of typhoon activity representing the degree to which each year follows this pattern of activity is used to identify correlated climate variables. A useful statistical regression model that includes sea-level pressure differences between Mongolia and western China and sea-surface temperature （SST） over the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the summer explains 26% of the interannual variability of the landfall index. It is suggested that a stronger than normal north-south pressure gradient increases the surface easterly wind flow over northern China： this, coupled with lower SST over the Pacific, favors typhoons taking a more westerly track toward southern China.
文摘Even though the degree of damage inflicted by North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is highly dependent upon track location and proximity to land, the spatial characteristics of TCs are generally understudied. We investigated the spatial relationships between landfall locations and track patterns of all Cape Verde-type landfalling and coastal TCs that have affected the continental coastline of the western Atlantic Basin by region for the period 1851-2008. The degree of recurvature for these TCs increases progressively from the Central America/Caribbean coast (CA) through the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Florida peninsula (FLOR), and Atlantic (ATL) coasts. The date (month) of occurrence shows similar increases from the GOM through ATL. These patterns for landfall location, track pattern, and occurrence date generally follow the intra-seasonal movement and intensity variations of the Bermuda High (BH), as represented by increasing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values from CA through FLOR. Analysis suggests that the region of landfall is primarily controlled by two factors: the amplitude of track recurvature and the longitude at which recurvature begins to dominate track shape. Both of these important steering controls are predominantly influenced by the strength and position of the BH, with increasing strength and/or more northeasterly position of the BH progressively driving landfall from Central America through the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic seaboard out to the open sea. The paleorecord suggests that the latitudinal position of the BH exerts an important control over the location of hurricane landfall along the western North Atlantic on millennial time scales. This suggests that global warming may result in a northern shift in TC tracks and increased frequency of landfalls in northern locations.
文摘青藏高原中部的草甸/草原混合生态群落,对气候变化非常敏感.孢粉记录显示草原发育时期,莎草减少,区域气候是相对干旱的,在时间上对应季风相对弱的时期.依据唐古拉山垭口湖、阿洪错和错那3个淡水湖泊钻孔孢粉分析,定量重建的温度和降水指标,探讨该地区8200 cal a BP以来的植被与气候变化.8200～6500 cal a BP,尤其是8200～7200 cal a BP,植被以草甸/草原混合生态群落为主,显示强季风控制着青藏高原中部;6000～4900,4400～3900以及2800～2400 cal a BP时期区域植被以草原植被为主,应是3次百年尺度的干旱事件;4900～4400 cal a BP期间植被类型由草原向草甸转变;6500～5400和3000～1600 cal a BP出现两次大的变干事件;数值摸拟估计,高原中部接近于现今的环境,最早可能出现在6500cal a BP,自3000cal a BP以后高原中部季风性降水和湿度逐渐减少至现今水平,可能在700～300cal a BP出现一次小冰期变冷事件.
文摘发生在大约4200年前的一场持续干旱可能是当时史前文明快速衰落的重要推手,这在全球许多区域均有记录,但在中国西北干旱区是否存在该事件依然缺乏有力证据。本文通过分析托勒库勒湖沉积地层的孢粉,发现新疆地区也存在类似4.2 ka BP气候事件的记录。4.5—3.8 cal ka BP期间的孢粉谱与前后时段相比有显著差异,禾本科和蒿属花粉含量快速降低、藜科急剧增加、A/C值降低;区域环境短期内变得极为寒冷-干旱,先前的草原/荒漠草原演化为荒漠。对比也发现,尽管这一事件在不同研究点的开始和结束时间略有差异,但变化特征具有较好的一致性。目前,关于这次事件的驱动机制仍不清楚,还需在新疆及其他敏感区域开展更多古气候研究。
