Background:We explored the risk factors that affect the prognosis of patients with Paget disease of the breast(PD)and constructed a survival prediction model.Methods:The data of PD patients from 2004 to 2014 were coll...Background:We explored the risk factors that affect the prognosis of patients with Paget disease of the breast(PD)and constructed a survival prediction model.Methods:The data of PD patients from 2004 to 2014 were collected through the SEER database.The factors affecting the prognosis of PD patients were analysed by a single factor,and the prediction model of the independent risk factor transformation model diagram that affected their 1-,3-,and 5-year survival rates was screened by multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis coefficients.The consistency index was used to evaluate its predictive value,and its predictive performance was tested by the 1000 bootstrap method.Then,the calibration curve was used to verify the predictive performance of the model,and the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis were used to assess the sensitivity and practicability of the model compared to the American Cancer Commission staging(AJCC)staging system.Results:The consistency index of the model was 0.795(95%confidence interval 0.773–0.818).The calibration curve shows good consistency,while the receiver operating characteristic curve shows the sensitivity of the model to predict the survival rate of PD at 1,3,and 5 years.Decision curve analysis confirmed that the nomogram can predict the survival rate of PD patients at 1,3,and 5 years instead of the traditional AJCC system.Conclusion:Regarding the independent prognostic factors of age,marital status,AJCC classification,surgery,radiotherapy,chemotherapy and marital status conversion in PD patients,the nomogram established in sequence has higher accuracy and clinical value than the traditional AJCC system.展开更多
基金This work was supported by The Guiding Project of Clinical Medical Technology Innovation in Hunan Province(2020SK51706)Clinical Research Center for Breast&Thyroid Disease Prevention in Hunan Province(2018SK4001)General guidance project of Hunan Provincial Health Commission(202204013843).
文摘Background:We explored the risk factors that affect the prognosis of patients with Paget disease of the breast(PD)and constructed a survival prediction model.Methods:The data of PD patients from 2004 to 2014 were collected through the SEER database.The factors affecting the prognosis of PD patients were analysed by a single factor,and the prediction model of the independent risk factor transformation model diagram that affected their 1-,3-,and 5-year survival rates was screened by multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis coefficients.The consistency index was used to evaluate its predictive value,and its predictive performance was tested by the 1000 bootstrap method.Then,the calibration curve was used to verify the predictive performance of the model,and the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis were used to assess the sensitivity and practicability of the model compared to the American Cancer Commission staging(AJCC)staging system.Results:The consistency index of the model was 0.795(95%confidence interval 0.773–0.818).The calibration curve shows good consistency,while the receiver operating characteristic curve shows the sensitivity of the model to predict the survival rate of PD at 1,3,and 5 years.Decision curve analysis confirmed that the nomogram can predict the survival rate of PD patients at 1,3,and 5 years instead of the traditional AJCC system.Conclusion:Regarding the independent prognostic factors of age,marital status,AJCC classification,surgery,radiotherapy,chemotherapy and marital status conversion in PD patients,the nomogram established in sequence has higher accuracy and clinical value than the traditional AJCC system.
