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Evaluation of a Regional Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Typhoon Prediction 被引量:2
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作者 Lili LEI Yangjinxi GE +4 位作者 Zhe-Min TAN Yi ZHANG kekuan chu Xin QIU Qifeng QIAN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第11期1816-1832,共17页
An ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) combined with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF) is cycled and evaluated for western North Pacific(WNP) typhoons of year 2016. Conventional in situ data, ... An ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) combined with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF) is cycled and evaluated for western North Pacific(WNP) typhoons of year 2016. Conventional in situ data, radiance observations, and tropical cyclone(TC) minimum sea level pressure(SLP) are assimilated every 6 h using an 80-member ensemble. For all TC categories, the 6-h ensemble priors from the WRF/EnKF system have an appropriate amount of variance for TC tracks but have insufficient variance for TC intensity. The 6-h ensemble priors from the WRF/EnKF system tend to overestimate the intensity for weak storms but underestimate the intensity for strong storms. The 5-d deterministic forecasts launched from the ensemble mean analyses of WRF/EnKF are compared to the NCEP and ECMWF operational control forecasts. Results show that the WRF/EnKF forecasts generally have larger track errors than the NCEP and ECMWF forecasts for all TC categories because the regional simulation cannot represent the large-scale environment better than the global simulation. The WRF/EnKF forecasts produce smaller intensity errors and biases than the NCEP and ECMWF forecasts for typhoons, but the opposite is true for tropical storms and severe tropical storms. The 5-d ensemble forecasts from the WRF/EnKF system for seven typhoon cases show appropriate variance for TC track and intensity with short forecast lead times but have insufficient spread with long forecast lead times. The WRF/EnKF system provides better ensemble forecasts and higher predictability for TC intensity than the NCEP and ECMWF ensemble forecasts. 展开更多
关键词 ensemble Kalman filter typhoon prediction ensemble forecast
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On the relationship between tropical cyclone size and environmental helicity in the South China Sea 被引量:1
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作者 Min Li kekuan chu +1 位作者 Jian-Feng Gu Zhe-Min Tan 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2022年第4期32-37,共6页
In this study,the impact of environmental factors on tropical cyclone(TC)outer-core size was investigated for both migrating and local TCs in the South China Sea during the period 2001–2019.Among all the thermodynami... In this study,the impact of environmental factors on tropical cyclone(TC)outer-core size was investigated for both migrating and local TCs in the South China Sea during the period 2001–2019.Among all the thermodynamic and dynamic factors,the low-level environmental helicity showed the strongest positive correlation with TC outer-core size.Large helicity favors the development and organization of convection in TCs,and the corresponding strong inflow and large angular momentum fluxes into the system is beneficial for the maintenance and enlargement of TC outer-core size.Besides,the asymmetric distribution of helicity may account for the asymmetry of TC outer-core size.Therefore,the environmental helicity,as an integrated dynamic factor,can provide an alternative view on TC outer-core size. 展开更多
关键词 Tropical cyclone Outer-core size HELICITY Angular momentum
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