Despite the availability of successful vaccines,measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years,presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation.Moreover,measles cases in adult groups,albeit ...Despite the availability of successful vaccines,measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years,presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation.Moreover,measles cases in adult groups,albeit small in number,indicate that the previously neglected adult group may need to be brought into vaccine coverage to achieve WHO's goal of measles eradication from the globe.In this study,we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to describe measles cases in adults and children to evaluate the role of adult infection in persistent measles cases and vaccination programs for eradication.Analysis of our model,validated by measles cases from outbreaks in Nepal,provides the vaccination reproduction number(conditions for measles eradication or persistence)and the role of contact network size.Our results highlight that while children are primary targets for measles outbreaks,a small number of infections in adults may act as a reservoir for measles,causing obstacles to eradication.Furthermore,our model analysis shows that while impactful controls can be achieved by children-focused vaccines,a combined adult-child vaccination program may help assert eradication of the disease.展开更多
基金supported by the GRAID(Graduate Research Assistantships in Developing Countries)awards from the International Mathematical Union(IMU)the University Grants Commission(UGC),Sanothimi Bhaktapur,Nepal,for the Small Research and Development and Innovation Grants-077/078(SRDIG)award+3 种基金the Nepal Academy of Science and Technology(NAST)for Ph.D.Fellowshipthe University Grants Commission(UGC)Nepal for Ph.D.Fellowship 2021supported by NSF grants DMS-1951793 and DEB-2030479 from the National Science Foundation of USAUGP award from San Diego State University.
文摘Despite the availability of successful vaccines,measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years,presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation.Moreover,measles cases in adult groups,albeit small in number,indicate that the previously neglected adult group may need to be brought into vaccine coverage to achieve WHO's goal of measles eradication from the globe.In this study,we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to describe measles cases in adults and children to evaluate the role of adult infection in persistent measles cases and vaccination programs for eradication.Analysis of our model,validated by measles cases from outbreaks in Nepal,provides the vaccination reproduction number(conditions for measles eradication or persistence)and the role of contact network size.Our results highlight that while children are primary targets for measles outbreaks,a small number of infections in adults may act as a reservoir for measles,causing obstacles to eradication.Furthermore,our model analysis shows that while impactful controls can be achieved by children-focused vaccines,a combined adult-child vaccination program may help assert eradication of the disease.
