A deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model for typhoon trajectory prediction to reduce flight scheduling cancellation

Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.

基于变分自编码器的飓风轨迹异常检测方法

飓风常会引起无法估计的人身和经济损失,飓风轨迹异常检测可以为灾情提供辅助信息或异常告警。从深度学习的角度出发,提出了基于变分自编码器的飓风轨迹异常检测方法(Variational Auto-Encoder Outlier Detection,VAEOD)。利用滑动窗口将长度不等的轨迹序列变成等长的子轨迹序列作为变分自编码器的输入,通过变分自编码器训练轨迹重构模型,将重构的轨迹与输入的轨迹通过平行、垂直和角度距离进行对比找出异常的轨迹段。通过真实的飓风数据进行仿真实验发现,VAEOD方法比经典的轨迹异常值检测算法(Trajectory Outlier Detection Algorithm,TRAOD)检测的结果更合理,实用性更强。

Firepower distribution method of anti-ship missile based on coupled path planning

Anti-ship missile coordinated attack mission planning is a complex multi-objective optimization problem with multiple combinations of platforms, strong decision-making constraints,and tightly coupled links. To avoid the coupling disorder between path planning and firepower distribution and improve the efficiency of coordinated attack mission planning, a firepower distribution model under the conditions of path planning is established from the perspective of decoupling optimization and the algorithm is implemented. First, we establish reference coordinate system of firepower distribution to clarify the reference direction of firepower distribution and divide the area of firepower distribution;then, we construct an index table of membership of firepower distribution to obtain alternative firepower distribution plans;finally, the fitness function of firepower distribution is established based on damage income, missile loss,ratio of efficiency and cost of firepower distribution, and the mean square deviation of the number of missiles used, and the alternatives are sorted to obtain the optimal firepower distribution plan. According to two simulation experiments, the method in this paper can effectively solve the many-to-many firepower distribution problem of coupled path planning. Under the premise of ensuring that no path crossing occurs, the optimal global solution can be obtained, and the operability and timeliness are good.