电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的监测与预报是空间环境研究的重要内容,对卫星通讯和导航定位等有重要意义.TEC值影响因素较多,很难确定精确物理模型来对其进行预测.本文设计了基于注意力机制的LSTM模型(Att-LSTM),采用...电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的监测与预报是空间环境研究的重要内容,对卫星通讯和导航定位等有重要意义.TEC值影响因素较多,很难确定精确物理模型来对其进行预测.本文设计了基于注意力机制的LSTM模型(Att-LSTM),采用过去24小时TEC观测数据对未来TEC进行预测.选择北半球东经100°上,每2.5°纬度选择一个位置,共计36个位置来验证本文提出模型的性能,并与主流的深度学习模型如DNN、RNN、LSTM进行对比实验.取得了如下成果:(1)在选定的36个地区未来2小时单点预测上,基于本文的Att-LSTM模型的TEC预测性能明显优于其他对比模型;(2)讨论了纬度对Att-LSTM预测未来2小时TEC值时性能的影响,发现在北纬0°到60°之间,Att-LSTM预测性能随着纬度的升高而略有降低,在北纬62.5°~87.5°之间,模型预测性能出现扰动,预测效果略差;(3)讨论了磁暴期和磁静期模型的预测性能,发现无论是磁暴期还是磁静期,本文模型预测性能均较好;(4)还讨论了对未来多时点预测效果,实验结果表明,本文所提出的模型对未来2、4个小时的预测拟合度R-Square均超过0.95,预测结果比较可靠,对未来6、8、10个小时预测拟合度最高为0.7934,预测拟合度R-Square下降迅速,预测结果不可靠.展开更多
太阳辐射是火星电离层变化的重要控制因素.利用火星全球勘探者号(Mars Global Surveyor,MGS)电离层掩星探测数据,并结合一个火星电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)经验模型,研究了火星北半球高纬地区电离层电子密度对太阳...太阳辐射是火星电离层变化的重要控制因素.利用火星全球勘探者号(Mars Global Surveyor,MGS)电离层掩星探测数据,并结合一个火星电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)经验模型,研究了火星北半球高纬地区电离层电子密度对太阳辐射变化的响应特性.在考虑了火星掩星数据中电离层电子密度对太阳天顶角的依赖关系后,发现随着太阳辐射增强,火星电离层M_(2)层峰值密度增大,但增长偏离线性趋势,而M_(2)层峰值高度和大气标高没有很明显的变化趋势.从100~200 km高度区域掩星电子密度剖面积分得到的TEC及底部和顶部TEC也随太阳辐射增大而增大,但增长率有所减小,表明火星电离层可能存在类似地球电离层的饱和特征.MGS掩星TEC及其底部和顶部剖面的TEC与经验模型TEC的比值均与太阳辐射强度变化呈反相关特性,表明在强太阳辐射情形下200 km以上电子含量在TEC中占比增大.这一特性意味着太阳活动增强,在火星顶部电离层区域,动力学过程对电离层的控制逐渐超过光化学过程.展开更多
The ionosphere varies over multiple time scales,which are classified into two categories: the climatology and weather variations.In this national report,we give a brief summary of recent progresses in ionospheric clim...The ionosphere varies over multiple time scales,which are classified into two categories: the climatology and weather variations.In this national report,we give a brief summary of recent progresses in ionospheric climatology with focus on(1) the seasonal variations,(2) solar cycle effects, and(3) empirical modeling of the ionosphere.The seasonal variations of the ionosphere have been explored in many works to give a more detailed picture with regional and global features at various altitudes by analyzing the observation data from various sources and models.Moreover,a series of studies reported the response of the ionosphere to solar cycle variations,which revealed some novel and detailed features of solar activity dependence of ionospheric parameters at different altitudes. These investigations have improved our understanding on the states of the ionosphere and underlying fundamental processes,provided clues to future studies on ionospheric weather,and guided ionospheric modeling,forecasting and related applications.展开更多
In this national biannual report, we will outline some recent progresses in ionospheric studies conducted by Chinese scientists since 2012. The mentioned aspects include: the solar activity control of the ionosphere; ...In this national biannual report, we will outline some recent progresses in ionospheric studies conducted by Chinese scientists since 2012. The mentioned aspects include: the solar activity control of the ionosphere; couplings between the ionosphere, lower atmosphere and plasmasphere;ionospheric climatology and disturbances; ionospheric irregularities and scintillation; models, data assimilation and simulations; unusual phenomena of the ionosphere; possible seismic signatures presented in ionospheric observations, and some methodology progresses. These progresses will enhance our ability to observe the ionosphere, provide more reasonable understanding about the states of the ionosphere and underlying fundamental processes, and stimulate ionospheric modeling, forecasting and related applications.展开更多
On the basis of previous work, we develop a middle and low latitude theoretical ionospheric model in this paper, named Theoretical Ionospheric Model of the Earth in the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Aca...On the basis of previous work, we develop a middle and low latitude theoretical ionospheric model in this paper, named Theoretical Ionospheric Model of the Earth in the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (TIME-IGGCAS). TIME-IGGCAS solves the equations of mass continuity, motion and energy of electron and ions self-consistently and uses an eccentric dipole field approxima-tion to the Earth’s magnetic field. We combine the Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches in the model and take account of the plasma E×B drift velocity. Calculation results reveal that the model is steady and credible and can reproduce most large-scale features of ionosphere. By using TIME-IGGCAS, we carried out an observation system data assimilation experiment. Assimilation results show that the E×B drift velocity can be accurately estimated by ingesting the observed foF2 and hmF2 into the model ap-plying nonlinear least-square fit method. We suggest that this work is of great significance in the de-velopment of ionospheric data assimilation model to give better nowcast and forecast of ionosphere.展开更多
Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics,...Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics, providing information essential to understanding the variations in the ionosphere and its processes. Selected recent studies on solar activity effects of the ionosphere are briefly reviewed in this report. This report focuses on (1) observations of solar irradiance at X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths and the outstanding problems of solar proxies, in the view of ionospheric studies, (2) new findings and improved representations of the features of the solar activity dependence of ionospheric key parameters and the corresponding physical processes, (3) possible phenomena in the ionosphere under extremely high and low solar activity conditions that are unique, as indicated by historical solar datasets and the deep solar minimum of solar cycle 23/24, and (4) statistical studies and model simulations of the ionosphere response to solar flares. The above-mentioned studies provide new clues for comprehensively explaining basic processes in the ionosphere and improving the prediction capability of ionospheric models and related applications.展开更多
文摘电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的监测与预报是空间环境研究的重要内容,对卫星通讯和导航定位等有重要意义.TEC值影响因素较多,很难确定精确物理模型来对其进行预测.本文设计了基于注意力机制的LSTM模型(Att-LSTM),采用过去24小时TEC观测数据对未来TEC进行预测.选择北半球东经100°上,每2.5°纬度选择一个位置,共计36个位置来验证本文提出模型的性能,并与主流的深度学习模型如DNN、RNN、LSTM进行对比实验.取得了如下成果:(1)在选定的36个地区未来2小时单点预测上,基于本文的Att-LSTM模型的TEC预测性能明显优于其他对比模型;(2)讨论了纬度对Att-LSTM预测未来2小时TEC值时性能的影响,发现在北纬0°到60°之间,Att-LSTM预测性能随着纬度的升高而略有降低,在北纬62.5°~87.5°之间,模型预测性能出现扰动,预测效果略差;(3)讨论了磁暴期和磁静期模型的预测性能,发现无论是磁暴期还是磁静期,本文模型预测性能均较好;(4)还讨论了对未来多时点预测效果,实验结果表明,本文所提出的模型对未来2、4个小时的预测拟合度R-Square均超过0.95,预测结果比较可靠,对未来6、8、10个小时预测拟合度最高为0.7934,预测拟合度R-Square下降迅速,预测结果不可靠.
文摘太阳辐射是火星电离层变化的重要控制因素.利用火星全球勘探者号(Mars Global Surveyor,MGS)电离层掩星探测数据,并结合一个火星电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)经验模型,研究了火星北半球高纬地区电离层电子密度对太阳辐射变化的响应特性.在考虑了火星掩星数据中电离层电子密度对太阳天顶角的依赖关系后,发现随着太阳辐射增强,火星电离层M_(2)层峰值密度增大,但增长偏离线性趋势,而M_(2)层峰值高度和大气标高没有很明显的变化趋势.从100~200 km高度区域掩星电子密度剖面积分得到的TEC及底部和顶部TEC也随太阳辐射增大而增大,但增长率有所减小,表明火星电离层可能存在类似地球电离层的饱和特征.MGS掩星TEC及其底部和顶部剖面的TEC与经验模型TEC的比值均与太阳辐射强度变化呈反相关特性,表明在强太阳辐射情形下200 km以上电子含量在TEC中占比增大.这一特性意味着太阳活动增强,在火星顶部电离层区域,动力学过程对电离层的控制逐渐超过光化学过程.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZZD-EW-01-3)National Key Basic Research Program of China(2012- CB825604)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41074112,41174137)
文摘The ionosphere varies over multiple time scales,which are classified into two categories: the climatology and weather variations.In this national report,we give a brief summary of recent progresses in ionospheric climatology with focus on(1) the seasonal variations,(2) solar cycle effects, and(3) empirical modeling of the ionosphere.The seasonal variations of the ionosphere have been explored in many works to give a more detailed picture with regional and global features at various altitudes by analyzing the observation data from various sources and models.Moreover,a series of studies reported the response of the ionosphere to solar cycle variations,which revealed some novel and detailed features of solar activity dependence of ionospheric parameters at different altitudes. These investigations have improved our understanding on the states of the ionosphere and underlying fundamental processes,provided clues to future studies on ionospheric weather,and guided ionospheric modeling,forecasting and related applications.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41231065)the Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZZD-EW-01-3)National Key Basic Research Program of China(2012CB825604)
文摘In this national biannual report, we will outline some recent progresses in ionospheric studies conducted by Chinese scientists since 2012. The mentioned aspects include: the solar activity control of the ionosphere; couplings between the ionosphere, lower atmosphere and plasmasphere;ionospheric climatology and disturbances; ionospheric irregularities and scintillation; models, data assimilation and simulations; unusual phenomena of the ionosphere; possible seismic signatures presented in ionospheric observations, and some methodology progresses. These progresses will enhance our ability to observe the ionosphere, provide more reasonable understanding about the states of the ionosphere and underlying fundamental processes, and stimulate ionospheric modeling, forecasting and related applications.
基金the Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-144)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40636032, 40574071 and 40504023)National Important Basic Research Project (Grant No. 2006CB806306)
文摘On the basis of previous work, we develop a middle and low latitude theoretical ionospheric model in this paper, named Theoretical Ionospheric Model of the Earth in the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (TIME-IGGCAS). TIME-IGGCAS solves the equations of mass continuity, motion and energy of electron and ions self-consistently and uses an eccentric dipole field approxima-tion to the Earth’s magnetic field. We combine the Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches in the model and take account of the plasma E×B drift velocity. Calculation results reveal that the model is steady and credible and can reproduce most large-scale features of ionosphere. By using TIME-IGGCAS, we carried out an observation system data assimilation experiment. Assimilation results show that the E×B drift velocity can be accurately estimated by ingesting the observed foF2 and hmF2 into the model ap-plying nonlinear least-square fit method. We suggest that this work is of great significance in the de-velopment of ionospheric data assimilation model to give better nowcast and forecast of ionosphere.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40725014)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories
文摘Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics, providing information essential to understanding the variations in the ionosphere and its processes. Selected recent studies on solar activity effects of the ionosphere are briefly reviewed in this report. This report focuses on (1) observations of solar irradiance at X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths and the outstanding problems of solar proxies, in the view of ionospheric studies, (2) new findings and improved representations of the features of the solar activity dependence of ionospheric key parameters and the corresponding physical processes, (3) possible phenomena in the ionosphere under extremely high and low solar activity conditions that are unique, as indicated by historical solar datasets and the deep solar minimum of solar cycle 23/24, and (4) statistical studies and model simulations of the ionosphere response to solar flares. The above-mentioned studies provide new clues for comprehensively explaining basic processes in the ionosphere and improving the prediction capability of ionospheric models and related applications.
