Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP...Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP） in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than （lower than） normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold （warm） phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.展开更多
The World Expo 2010 was successfully held in Shanghai from May to October 2010. Activities related to the Expo were spread out in the Eastern China. To provide a better typhoon landfall forecast service for the Expo a...The World Expo 2010 was successfully held in Shanghai from May to October 2010. Activities related to the Expo were spread out in the Eastern China. To provide a better typhoon landfall forecast service for the Expo and to demonstrate the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques in the world, the “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(WMO-TLFDP)” began in May 2010 and will end in December 2012. It is a component of the Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Project. Significant progresses have been made. First, the WMO-TLFDP Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was held successfully in Shanghai, China during 24-28 May, 2010. Second. a total of 13 typhoon forecast product providers have participated in the project by providing real-time forecast products. Third, typhoon track, intensity and rainfall forecasts are verified in both real time and post season manners. Fourth, products of the project are disseminated through the project’s website(http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn) and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, all the data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by the Regional Meteorological Center of Eastern China, which are available to research, training and capacity-building activities. It is demonstrated that current operational models are valuable in providing guidance to the forecast of not only track, but also intensity and heavy rainfall of tropical cyclones. Consensus techniques and ensemble prediction systems are promising in assisting the forecasters and decision makers to provide better tropical cyclone forecast and warning service. The WMO-TLFDP has supported effectively the forecasters and typhoon-related weather services during the World EXPO 2010, and it will continue to promote the implementation of the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques among the members of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, which ultimately will be of benefit to other WMO Members as well.展开更多
Names have been given to tropical cyclones which raging through the western North Pacific Ocean since 1947.However,considering the disastrous impact or some extreme uniqueness quite a few typhoons have their names ret...Names have been given to tropical cyclones which raging through the western North Pacific Ocean since 1947.However,considering the disastrous impact or some extreme uniqueness quite a few typhoons have their names retired from the list.This study conducts preliminary analysis and summarizes the frequency,impact and also explains why they were retired.It shows that a total of 31 typhoons(in the western North Pacific Ocean)have been removed from the list from 1947 on,most of which retired after 2000 amounting to 20 as against 11 before 2000.Collectively,these retired typhoons have made 16843 people killed or missing and caused a heavy property loss of$45.7 billion,averaging 543 fatalities and property loss of$1.69 billion each(capping at 8000 and$10 billion respectively).Most typhoons were retired due to huge personnel and property loss.However,some others were removed for their unique feature such as developed near equator,extremely long typhoon tracks,etc.Moreover,there were some retired due to neither of the above reasons.In this connection,the study also discusses the standard of retiring typhoons.展开更多
To promote and coordinate the planning and implementation of measures required for minimizing the loss of life and material damage caused by typhoons in the Asia and pacific Region,the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee(TC)w...To promote and coordinate the planning and implementation of measures required for minimizing the loss of life and material damage caused by typhoons in the Asia and pacific Region,the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee(TC)was established in 1968 under the auspices of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO).展开更多
基金supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(Grant No.GYHY201406001)National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB956003)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375093)supported in part by the Youth Elite Project of the CMA
文摘Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP） in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than （lower than） normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold （warm） phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.
文摘The World Expo 2010 was successfully held in Shanghai from May to October 2010. Activities related to the Expo were spread out in the Eastern China. To provide a better typhoon landfall forecast service for the Expo and to demonstrate the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques in the world, the “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project(WMO-TLFDP)” began in May 2010 and will end in December 2012. It is a component of the Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Project. Significant progresses have been made. First, the WMO-TLFDP Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was held successfully in Shanghai, China during 24-28 May, 2010. Second. a total of 13 typhoon forecast product providers have participated in the project by providing real-time forecast products. Third, typhoon track, intensity and rainfall forecasts are verified in both real time and post season manners. Fourth, products of the project are disseminated through the project’s website(http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn) and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, all the data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by the Regional Meteorological Center of Eastern China, which are available to research, training and capacity-building activities. It is demonstrated that current operational models are valuable in providing guidance to the forecast of not only track, but also intensity and heavy rainfall of tropical cyclones. Consensus techniques and ensemble prediction systems are promising in assisting the forecasters and decision makers to provide better tropical cyclone forecast and warning service. The WMO-TLFDP has supported effectively the forecasters and typhoon-related weather services during the World EXPO 2010, and it will continue to promote the implementation of the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques among the members of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, which ultimately will be of benefit to other WMO Members as well.
文摘Names have been given to tropical cyclones which raging through the western North Pacific Ocean since 1947.However,considering the disastrous impact or some extreme uniqueness quite a few typhoons have their names retired from the list.This study conducts preliminary analysis and summarizes the frequency,impact and also explains why they were retired.It shows that a total of 31 typhoons(in the western North Pacific Ocean)have been removed from the list from 1947 on,most of which retired after 2000 amounting to 20 as against 11 before 2000.Collectively,these retired typhoons have made 16843 people killed or missing and caused a heavy property loss of$45.7 billion,averaging 543 fatalities and property loss of$1.69 billion each(capping at 8000 and$10 billion respectively).Most typhoons were retired due to huge personnel and property loss.However,some others were removed for their unique feature such as developed near equator,extremely long typhoon tracks,etc.Moreover,there were some retired due to neither of the above reasons.In this connection,the study also discusses the standard of retiring typhoons.
文摘To promote and coordinate the planning and implementation of measures required for minimizing the loss of life and material damage caused by typhoons in the Asia and pacific Region,the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee(TC)was established in 1968 under the auspices of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO).
