Although the "predictability barrier" is a scientific problem brought forward during the middle 1990’s,it has yet to be clearly understood.In this paper,the authors used model results to study the "pre...Although the "predictability barrier" is a scientific problem brought forward during the middle 1990’s,it has yet to be clearly understood.In this paper,the authors used model results to study the "predictability barrier" of some atmospheric (climatic) systems,including the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST),East Asia trough (EAT),and South Asia wind field (monsoon).It is shown that the "predictability barrier" appeared not only in predicting the SST in the equatorial Pacific,but also in predicting the atmospheric circulation systems,such as the EAT and the monsoon.The "predictability barrier" for predicting the different climate systems appeared not only in spring,but also in different seasons.It appeared in spring for the equatorial Pacific SST,in summer for the EAT,and in fall and winter for the monsoon.Further analyses showed that the fundamental physical essence of the "predictability barrier" is the seasonal variability characteristics of the atmospheric (climate) system.The "predictability barrier" would occur when the system was at its weakest or worst continuous phase.Furthermore,the models and error patterns also had an important impact on the "predictability barrier";good models and special error patterns can minimize the "predictability barrier".展开更多
In this paper,the relationship between a pair of low-frequency vortexes over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon onset is studied based on a multi-year(1980-2003) analysis.A pair of...In this paper,the relationship between a pair of low-frequency vortexes over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon onset is studied based on a multi-year(1980-2003) analysis.A pair of vortexes symmetric about the equator is an important feature prior to the SCS summer monsoon onset.A composite analysis shows that the life cycle of the pair of vortexes is closely associated with the SCS summer monsoon onset.The westerly between the twin cyclones is an important factor to the SCS summer monsoon onset process.展开更多
The association of typhoon tracks over the western Pacific with the low-frequency wind-field pattern of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation at 850 hPa is further studied by using observational data anal...The association of typhoon tracks over the western Pacific with the low-frequency wind-field pattern of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation at 850 hPa is further studied by using observational data analyses. Comparative analyses of the composite wind fields at 850 hPa, contrasting the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) with the original circulation, show that the typhoon tracks are closely related to the wind pattern of the ISO but are not obviously related to the original wind fields. Case studies of two typhoons in 2006 also show that the low-frequency wind-field pattern, particularly the maximum-value line (belt) of low-frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850 hPa, is closely related to the typhoon track. Therefore, the lowfrequency circulation pattern and the maximum-value line (belt) of low- frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850hPa can be used to predict typhoon tracks over the northwestern Pacific.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Nos.2007CB411805 and 2006CB403603)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.U0833602)
文摘Although the "predictability barrier" is a scientific problem brought forward during the middle 1990’s,it has yet to be clearly understood.In this paper,the authors used model results to study the "predictability barrier" of some atmospheric (climatic) systems,including the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST),East Asia trough (EAT),and South Asia wind field (monsoon).It is shown that the "predictability barrier" appeared not only in predicting the SST in the equatorial Pacific,but also in predicting the atmospheric circulation systems,such as the EAT and the monsoon.The "predictability barrier" for predicting the different climate systems appeared not only in spring,but also in different seasons.It appeared in spring for the equatorial Pacific SST,in summer for the EAT,and in fall and winter for the monsoon.Further analyses showed that the fundamental physical essence of the "predictability barrier" is the seasonal variability characteristics of the atmospheric (climate) system.The "predictability barrier" would occur when the system was at its weakest or worst continuous phase.Furthermore,the models and error patterns also had an important impact on the "predictability barrier";good models and special error patterns can minimize the "predictability barrier".
基金financed by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2010CB950401)
文摘In this paper,the relationship between a pair of low-frequency vortexes over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon onset is studied based on a multi-year(1980-2003) analysis.A pair of vortexes symmetric about the equator is an important feature prior to the SCS summer monsoon onset.A composite analysis shows that the life cycle of the pair of vortexes is closely associated with the SCS summer monsoon onset.The westerly between the twin cyclones is an important factor to the SCS summer monsoon onset process.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U0833602)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2007CB411805)
文摘The association of typhoon tracks over the western Pacific with the low-frequency wind-field pattern of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation at 850 hPa is further studied by using observational data analyses. Comparative analyses of the composite wind fields at 850 hPa, contrasting the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) with the original circulation, show that the typhoon tracks are closely related to the wind pattern of the ISO but are not obviously related to the original wind fields. Case studies of two typhoons in 2006 also show that the low-frequency wind-field pattern, particularly the maximum-value line (belt) of low-frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850 hPa, is closely related to the typhoon track. Therefore, the lowfrequency circulation pattern and the maximum-value line (belt) of low- frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850hPa can be used to predict typhoon tracks over the northwestern Pacific.
