Based on the survey of international emissions trading system(ETS) and quantitative analysis,policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study.Sectors sensitive to carbon prices,e.g....Based on the survey of international emissions trading system(ETS) and quantitative analysis,policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study.Sectors sensitive to carbon prices,e.g.,the power generation sector and the iron and steel industry,are given priority to be covered by the ETS.Interregional carbon trading should be carried out as early as possible.The cap of the ETS should be based on China's carbon intensity reduction target with the floor carbon price for the market being set in the beginning.Suggestions on the infrastructure of ETS are also proposed,including the national wide carbon account registration system and the legislation to national measuring,reporting,verification system building.展开更多
This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon...This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.展开更多
在梳理新常态以来各省经济布局发展以及能源需求特征的基础上,重点剖析了国家区域协调发展战略,并利用中国多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型(China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium,CMRCGE),对“十四五”时期各省经济社会...在梳理新常态以来各省经济布局发展以及能源需求特征的基础上,重点剖析了国家区域协调发展战略,并利用中国多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型(China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium,CMRCGE),对“十四五”时期各省经济社会发展、能源需求及碳排放进行了模拟分析。主要结论包括:(1)在区域协调发展战略指引下,预计到“十四五”末,中国将有13个省市人均GDP超过1.5万美元,16个省市人均GDP在1.0万~1.5万美元之间,各省经济有望实现平稳较快发展。(2)预计2025年各省能源需求总量可达54.5亿tce(由于数据原因,未测算西藏),“十四五”年均增长约为1.5%,能源需求仍保持低速增长。同时能源需求的重心逐步从东部向中部转移,而西部地区能源大省的用能比重基本保持稳定,这与各地所处的经济发展阶段、区域协调发展战略导向基本一致。(3)“十四五”时期各省的碳排放(主要考虑能源利用碳排放)强度年均降幅约为5.4%,绝大部分省份降幅超过4.0%。近年来碳强度显著下降的趋势有望继续保持。展开更多
A quantitative model was applied to analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy(2016e2030)and long-term economic and social development targ...A quantitative model was applied to analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy(2016e2030)and long-term economic and social development target China Dream.Results showed that 1)toward the 2050 China Dream target,total final energy consumption is expected to peak at 3.9 Gtce in 2030 and remain stable until 2050,whereas total primary energy consumption is expected to reach an upper platform by 2040 and around 5.8 Gtce by 2050;2)the proportion of non-fossil fuels is expected to reach approximately 50%and that of natural gas to reach more than 16%by 2050;3)CO2 emissions from energy use are expected to peak at 9.6 Gt by no later than 2030 and then gradually decline to 6.7 Gt by 2050.展开更多
The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and indust...The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB955700 and 2010CB955501)
文摘Based on the survey of international emissions trading system(ETS) and quantitative analysis,policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study.Sectors sensitive to carbon prices,e.g.,the power generation sector and the iron and steel industry,are given priority to be covered by the ETS.Interregional carbon trading should be carried out as early as possible.The cap of the ETS should be based on China's carbon intensity reduction target with the floor carbon price for the market being set in the beginning.Suggestions on the infrastructure of ETS are also proposed,including the national wide carbon account registration system and the legislation to national measuring,reporting,verification system building.
基金s This work was supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology (2016YFA0602601), Science and Technology Project of the State Grid Corporation of China Headquarters ''Research and Development of China Multi-regional Compre hensive Analysis and Forecast Mcxlel System for Energy Sup ply and Demand Fourth National Climate Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Change’’, and National Natural Science Foundation of China Program (71573145, 71573062).
文摘This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.
文摘在梳理新常态以来各省经济布局发展以及能源需求特征的基础上,重点剖析了国家区域协调发展战略,并利用中国多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型(China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium,CMRCGE),对“十四五”时期各省经济社会发展、能源需求及碳排放进行了模拟分析。主要结论包括:(1)在区域协调发展战略指引下,预计到“十四五”末,中国将有13个省市人均GDP超过1.5万美元,16个省市人均GDP在1.0万~1.5万美元之间,各省经济有望实现平稳较快发展。(2)预计2025年各省能源需求总量可达54.5亿tce(由于数据原因,未测算西藏),“十四五”年均增长约为1.5%,能源需求仍保持低速增长。同时能源需求的重心逐步从东部向中部转移,而西部地区能源大省的用能比重基本保持稳定,这与各地所处的经济发展阶段、区域协调发展战略导向基本一致。(3)“十四五”时期各省的碳排放(主要考虑能源利用碳排放)强度年均降幅约为5.4%,绝大部分省份降幅超过4.0%。近年来碳强度显著下降的趋势有望继续保持。
基金We thank National Key R&D Program of China(2016YFA0602601),National Natural Science Foundation of China(71573062),China Energy Modeling Forum(CEMF),for support of the study.
文摘A quantitative model was applied to analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy(2016e2030)and long-term economic and social development target China Dream.Results showed that 1)toward the 2050 China Dream target,total final energy consumption is expected to peak at 3.9 Gtce in 2030 and remain stable until 2050,whereas total primary energy consumption is expected to reach an upper platform by 2040 and around 5.8 Gtce by 2050;2)the proportion of non-fossil fuels is expected to reach approximately 50%and that of natural gas to reach more than 16%by 2050;3)CO2 emissions from energy use are expected to peak at 9.6 Gt by no later than 2030 and then gradually decline to 6.7 Gt by 2050.
文摘The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.
