Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies have shown that the rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake ...Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies have shown that the rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms. In this paper, we simulate the evolutionary process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change （ CCFSC ） in North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Fault rupture parameters of historical earthquakes are estimated as follows： the earthquake rupture length and the amount of slip are derived based on their statistical relationships with the earthquake intensity distribution and magnitude, calibrated using parameters of instrumentally measured contemporary earthquakes. The earthquake rake angle is derived based on geologically determined fault orientational parameters and seismically estimated orientation of regional tectonic stresses. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulting from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. On the eve of each large earthquake, the accumulated stress field is projected to the fault surface of that earthquake and the CCFSC is evaluated to assess the triggering effect of CCFSC. Forty-nine earthquakes with M≥6.5 have occurred in North China since 1303. Statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive CCFSC, yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. If we use the accumulative stress field to evaluate the CCFSC for the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes that occurred in North China since 1303, we find that 75.5% of those events were triggered. The triggering rate for the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes after the 1976 Ninghe earthquake is up to 82.1%. The triggering rates can be higher if corrections are made for some aftershocks which were wrongly identified as occurring in stress shadow zones because of errors in parameter estimates of historical earthquakes. Our study shows a very high correlation between positive CCFSC and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high CCFSC in North China at present is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, the western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic zone, and the shiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas.展开更多
A linked-fault-element model is employed to invert for contemporary slip rates along major active faults in the Sichuan-Yunnan region (96°-108°E, 21°-35°N) using the least squares method. The model...A linked-fault-element model is employed to invert for contemporary slip rates along major active faults in the Sichuan-Yunnan region (96°-108°E, 21°-35°N) using the least squares method. The model is based on known fault geometry, and constrained by a GPS-derived horizontal velocity field. Our results support a model attributing the eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau driven mainly by the north-northeastward indentation of the Indian plate into Tibet and the gravitational collapse of the plateau. Resisted by a relatively stable south China block, materials of the Sichuan-Yunnan region rotate clockwise around the eastern Himalayan tectonic syntaxis. During the process the Garzê-Yushu, Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe, Daliangshan, and Xiaojiang faults, the southwest extension of the Xiaojiang fault, and the Daluo-Jinghong and Mae Chan faults constitute the northeast and east boundaries of the eastward extrusion, with their left slip rates being 0.3-14.7, 8.9-17.1, 5.1 ± 2.5, 2.8 ± 2.3, 7.1 ± 2.1, 9.4 ± 1.2, 10.1 ± 2.0, 7.3 ± 2.6, and 4.9 ± 3.0 mm/a respectively. The southwestern boundary consists of a widely distributed dextral transpressional zone other than a single fault. Right slip rates of 4.2 ± 1.3, 4.3 ± 1.1, and 8.5 ± 1.7 mm/a are detected across the Nanhua-Chuxiong-Jianshui, Wuliangshan, and Longling-Lancang faults. Crustal deformation across the Longmenshan fault is weak, with short-ening rates of 1.4 ± 1.0 and 1.6 ± 1.3 mm/a across the Baoxing-Beichuan and Beichuan-Qingchuan segments. Northwest of the Longmenshan fault lies an active deformation zone (the Longriba fault) with 5.1±1.2 mm/a right slip across. Relatively large slip rates are detected across a few faults within the Sichuan-Yunnan block: 4.4±1.3 mm/a left slip and 2.7±1.1 mm/a shortening across the Litang fault, and 2.7±2.3 mm/a right-lateral shearing and 6.7±2.3 mm/a shortening across the Yunongxi fault and its surrounding regions. In conclusion, we find that the Sichuan-Yunnan region is divided into more than a dozen active micro-blocks by a large number of faults with relatively slow slip rates. The eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau is absorbed and adjusted in the region mainly by these faults, other than a small number of large strike-slip faults with fast slip rates.展开更多
基金This project was sponsored by the National ScienceFoundation (40374012) .
文摘Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies have shown that the rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms. In this paper, we simulate the evolutionary process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change （ CCFSC ） in North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Fault rupture parameters of historical earthquakes are estimated as follows： the earthquake rupture length and the amount of slip are derived based on their statistical relationships with the earthquake intensity distribution and magnitude, calibrated using parameters of instrumentally measured contemporary earthquakes. The earthquake rake angle is derived based on geologically determined fault orientational parameters and seismically estimated orientation of regional tectonic stresses. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulting from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. On the eve of each large earthquake, the accumulated stress field is projected to the fault surface of that earthquake and the CCFSC is evaluated to assess the triggering effect of CCFSC. Forty-nine earthquakes with M≥6.5 have occurred in North China since 1303. Statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive CCFSC, yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. If we use the accumulative stress field to evaluate the CCFSC for the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes that occurred in North China since 1303, we find that 75.5% of those events were triggered. The triggering rate for the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes after the 1976 Ninghe earthquake is up to 82.1%. The triggering rates can be higher if corrections are made for some aftershocks which were wrongly identified as occurring in stress shadow zones because of errors in parameter estimates of historical earthquakes. Our study shows a very high correlation between positive CCFSC and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high CCFSC in North China at present is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, the western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic zone, and the shiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418403)the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40334042)the China Earthquake Administration Research Fund (Grant No. 200708002)
文摘A linked-fault-element model is employed to invert for contemporary slip rates along major active faults in the Sichuan-Yunnan region (96°-108°E, 21°-35°N) using the least squares method. The model is based on known fault geometry, and constrained by a GPS-derived horizontal velocity field. Our results support a model attributing the eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau driven mainly by the north-northeastward indentation of the Indian plate into Tibet and the gravitational collapse of the plateau. Resisted by a relatively stable south China block, materials of the Sichuan-Yunnan region rotate clockwise around the eastern Himalayan tectonic syntaxis. During the process the Garzê-Yushu, Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe, Daliangshan, and Xiaojiang faults, the southwest extension of the Xiaojiang fault, and the Daluo-Jinghong and Mae Chan faults constitute the northeast and east boundaries of the eastward extrusion, with their left slip rates being 0.3-14.7, 8.9-17.1, 5.1 ± 2.5, 2.8 ± 2.3, 7.1 ± 2.1, 9.4 ± 1.2, 10.1 ± 2.0, 7.3 ± 2.6, and 4.9 ± 3.0 mm/a respectively. The southwestern boundary consists of a widely distributed dextral transpressional zone other than a single fault. Right slip rates of 4.2 ± 1.3, 4.3 ± 1.1, and 8.5 ± 1.7 mm/a are detected across the Nanhua-Chuxiong-Jianshui, Wuliangshan, and Longling-Lancang faults. Crustal deformation across the Longmenshan fault is weak, with short-ening rates of 1.4 ± 1.0 and 1.6 ± 1.3 mm/a across the Baoxing-Beichuan and Beichuan-Qingchuan segments. Northwest of the Longmenshan fault lies an active deformation zone (the Longriba fault) with 5.1±1.2 mm/a right slip across. Relatively large slip rates are detected across a few faults within the Sichuan-Yunnan block: 4.4±1.3 mm/a left slip and 2.7±1.1 mm/a shortening across the Litang fault, and 2.7±2.3 mm/a right-lateral shearing and 6.7±2.3 mm/a shortening across the Yunongxi fault and its surrounding regions. In conclusion, we find that the Sichuan-Yunnan region is divided into more than a dozen active micro-blocks by a large number of faults with relatively slow slip rates. The eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau is absorbed and adjusted in the region mainly by these faults, other than a small number of large strike-slip faults with fast slip rates.
