A typhoon leading is an important natural disaster to many disasters to China. A giant wave caused by it has brought large threat for an offshore project. Based on the maximum entropy principle,one new model which has...A typhoon leading is an important natural disaster to many disasters to China. A giant wave caused by it has brought large threat for an offshore project. Based on the maximum entropy principle,one new model which has 4 undetermined parameters is constructed,which is called the discrete maximum entropy probabilistic model. In practical applications,the design wave height is considered as soon as possible in a typhoon affected sea areas,the result fits the observed data well. Further more this model does not have the priority compared with other distributions as Poisson distribution. The model provides a theoretical basis for the engineering design more reasonable when considering typhoon factors comprehensively.展开更多
Modeling experiences of traditional grey-Markov show that the prediction results are not accurate when analyzed data are rare and fluctuated.So it is necessary to revise or improve the original modeling procedure of t...Modeling experiences of traditional grey-Markov show that the prediction results are not accurate when analyzed data are rare and fluctuated.So it is necessary to revise or improve the original modeling procedure of the grey-Markov(GM)model.Therefore,a new idea is brought forward that the Markov theory is used twice,where the first time is to extend the original data and the second to calculate and estimate the residual errors.Then by comparing the original data sequence from a fault prediction case with the simulation sequence produced by the use of GM(1,1) and the new GM method,results are conforming to the original data.Finally,an assumption of GM model is put forward as the future work.展开更多
基金Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting under contract No. LOMF1101the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 40776006Shanghai Typhoon Research Fund under contract No. 2009ST05
文摘A typhoon leading is an important natural disaster to many disasters to China. A giant wave caused by it has brought large threat for an offshore project. Based on the maximum entropy principle,one new model which has 4 undetermined parameters is constructed,which is called the discrete maximum entropy probabilistic model. In practical applications,the design wave height is considered as soon as possible in a typhoon affected sea areas,the result fits the observed data well. Further more this model does not have the priority compared with other distributions as Poisson distribution. The model provides a theoretical basis for the engineering design more reasonable when considering typhoon factors comprehensively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61303098)
文摘Modeling experiences of traditional grey-Markov show that the prediction results are not accurate when analyzed data are rare and fluctuated.So it is necessary to revise or improve the original modeling procedure of the grey-Markov(GM)model.Therefore,a new idea is brought forward that the Markov theory is used twice,where the first time is to extend the original data and the second to calculate and estimate the residual errors.Then by comparing the original data sequence from a fault prediction case with the simulation sequence produced by the use of GM(1,1) and the new GM method,results are conforming to the original data.Finally,an assumption of GM model is put forward as the future work.
