This study used the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)three-source fusion gridded precipitation analysis data as a reference to evaluate the precipitation forecast performance of the European Centre for Medium-R...This study used the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)three-source fusion gridded precipitation analysis data as a reference to evaluate the precipitation forecast performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model for China from 2017 to 2022.The main conclusions are as follows.The precipitation forecast capability of the ECMWF model for China has gradually improved from 2017 to 2022.Various scores such as bias,equitable threat score(ETS),and Fractions Skill Score(FSS)showed improvements for different categories of precipitation.The bias of light rain forecasts overall adjusted towards smaller values,and the increase in forecast scores was greater in the warm season than in the cold season.The ETS for torrential rain more intense categories significantly increased,although there were large fluctuations in bias across different months.The model exhibited higher precipitation bias in most areas of North China,indicating overprediction,while it showed lower bias in South China,indicating underprediction.The ETSs indicate that the model performed better in forecasting precipitation in the northeastern part of China without the influence of climatic background conditions.Comparison of the differences between the first period and the second period of the forecast shows that the precipitation amplitude in the ECMWF forecast shifted from slight underestimation to overestimation compared to that of CMPAS05,reducing the likelihood of missing extreme precipitation events.The improvement in ETS is mainly due to the reduction in bias and false alarm rates and,more importantly,an increase in the hit rate.From 2017 to 2022,the area coverage error of model precipitation forecast relative to observations showed a decreasing trend at different scales,while the FSS showed an increasing trend,with the highest FSS observed in 2021.The ETS followed a parabolic trend with increasing neighborhood radius,with the better ETS neighborhood radius generally being larger for moderate rain and heavy rain compared with light rain and torrential rain events.展开更多
气象要素特征的定点精细化分析和预报评估对重大体育赛事气象保障有重要意义。利用国家气象信息中心三源融合降水分析产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料,分析第十...气象要素特征的定点精细化分析和预报评估对重大体育赛事气象保障有重要意义。利用国家气象信息中心三源融合降水分析产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料,分析第十四届全国运动会(简称“十四运”)西安、延安、安康关键场馆的气象要素特征,并检验ECMWF、中国气象局中尺度数值预报系统(China Meteorologi⁃cal Administration Mesoscale Model,CMA-MESO)预报产品和国家气象中心网格指导预报产品(SCMOC)对3个关键场馆降水、气温和风的预报表现。主要结论如下:(1)十四运历史同期3个关键场馆发生降水的概率较高,开、闭幕日举行地西安场馆历史上出现降水的概率分别为46%和44%,平均降水量分别为24.6、9.8 mm,且降水量和降水概率峰值多出现在午后至傍晚。(2)十四运历史同期3个场馆夜间气温相对较低,白天快速升温,日平均气温大多为12~18℃,适宜赛事活动;3个场馆盛行偏东风或偏南风,西安、安康场馆风速小,适宜赛事活动,而延安场馆出现4级以上风的频次较高,对赛事有不利影响。(3)整体而言,十四运历史同期SCMOC在3个场馆的晴雨预报准确率最高,但降水频次预报较实况明显偏低,有漏报的风险;SCMOC对阻塞型和两槽一脊型降水过程的晴雨预报有明显优势,而ECMWF对低涡底部型降水过程预报表现较好,且TS值最稳定。ECMWF的气温预报准确率优于SCMOC和CMA-MESO,而SCMOC的风速预报具有绝对优势。(4)十四运期间3种产品的预报性能差异与历史同期基本一致,但整体预报评分高于历史同期。展开更多
目的:探讨失效模式与效应分析(failure mode and effect analysis,FMEA)在预防老年住院患者噎食发生中的应用效果。方法:选择2018年3月-2020年3月就诊于本院的老年患者86例。按随机数字表法分为对照组和观察组,各43例。对照组采用常规护...目的:探讨失效模式与效应分析(failure mode and effect analysis,FMEA)在预防老年住院患者噎食发生中的应用效果。方法:选择2018年3月-2020年3月就诊于本院的老年患者86例。按随机数字表法分为对照组和观察组,各43例。对照组采用常规护理,观察组在此基础上实施FMEA干预。比较两组两组噎食发生率、噎食致气道梗阻率和护理满意度。结果:观察组噎食发生率为2.33%、噎食致气道梗阻发生率为0,均低于对照组的18.60%、13.95%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。观察组护理满意度中饮食监管(22.54±2.16)分、操作技术(21.49±2.19)分、沟通态度(22.26±2.01)分、健康指导(22.41±2.33)分、总分(88.94±5.29)分,均高于对照组的(20.52±2.21)、(18.64±2.18)、(20.25±3.02)、(20.33±2.30)、(80.07±5.11)分,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:FMEA能够降低老年住院患者噎食发生风险,有助于保障患者生命安全,促进护理满意度提升。展开更多
结合高中英语学科核心素养的内容和要求,根据目前高中英语阅读、写作教学存在的问题,提出高中英语“三步骤六途径”读写结合教学模式。以人教版高中《英语》Book 6 Unit 3 Advice from Grand为例,探讨“三步骤六途径”读写结合教学模式...结合高中英语学科核心素养的内容和要求,根据目前高中英语阅读、写作教学存在的问题,提出高中英语“三步骤六途径”读写结合教学模式。以人教版高中《英语》Book 6 Unit 3 Advice from Grand为例,探讨“三步骤六途径”读写结合教学模式在高中英语课堂教学中的应用。展开更多
基金Special Innovation and Development Program of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J023)Projects in Key Areas of Social Development in Shaanxi Province(2024SF-YBXM-556)Shaanxi Province Basic Research Pro-gram of Natural Science(2023-JC-QN-0285)。
文摘This study used the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)three-source fusion gridded precipitation analysis data as a reference to evaluate the precipitation forecast performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model for China from 2017 to 2022.The main conclusions are as follows.The precipitation forecast capability of the ECMWF model for China has gradually improved from 2017 to 2022.Various scores such as bias,equitable threat score(ETS),and Fractions Skill Score(FSS)showed improvements for different categories of precipitation.The bias of light rain forecasts overall adjusted towards smaller values,and the increase in forecast scores was greater in the warm season than in the cold season.The ETS for torrential rain more intense categories significantly increased,although there were large fluctuations in bias across different months.The model exhibited higher precipitation bias in most areas of North China,indicating overprediction,while it showed lower bias in South China,indicating underprediction.The ETSs indicate that the model performed better in forecasting precipitation in the northeastern part of China without the influence of climatic background conditions.Comparison of the differences between the first period and the second period of the forecast shows that the precipitation amplitude in the ECMWF forecast shifted from slight underestimation to overestimation compared to that of CMPAS05,reducing the likelihood of missing extreme precipitation events.The improvement in ETS is mainly due to the reduction in bias and false alarm rates and,more importantly,an increase in the hit rate.From 2017 to 2022,the area coverage error of model precipitation forecast relative to observations showed a decreasing trend at different scales,while the FSS showed an increasing trend,with the highest FSS observed in 2021.The ETS followed a parabolic trend with increasing neighborhood radius,with the better ETS neighborhood radius generally being larger for moderate rain and heavy rain compared with light rain and torrential rain events.
文摘目的:探讨失效模式与效应分析(failure mode and effect analysis,FMEA)在预防老年住院患者噎食发生中的应用效果。方法:选择2018年3月-2020年3月就诊于本院的老年患者86例。按随机数字表法分为对照组和观察组,各43例。对照组采用常规护理,观察组在此基础上实施FMEA干预。比较两组两组噎食发生率、噎食致气道梗阻率和护理满意度。结果:观察组噎食发生率为2.33%、噎食致气道梗阻发生率为0,均低于对照组的18.60%、13.95%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。观察组护理满意度中饮食监管(22.54±2.16)分、操作技术(21.49±2.19)分、沟通态度(22.26±2.01)分、健康指导(22.41±2.33)分、总分(88.94±5.29)分,均高于对照组的(20.52±2.21)、(18.64±2.18)、(20.25±3.02)、(20.33±2.30)、(80.07±5.11)分,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:FMEA能够降低老年住院患者噎食发生风险,有助于保障患者生命安全,促进护理满意度提升。
