Joint Probability Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Conditions in Liaodong Bay

Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM-FIE).The joint probability distribution of AM-SIT and AM-FIE was established on the basis of their data pairs from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020 in Liaodong Bay.The joint intensity index of the sea ice condition in the current year is calculated,and the joint classification criteria of the sea ice grades in past years are established on the basis of the joint intensity index series.A comparison of the joint criteria with the 1973 and 2022 criteria revealed that the joint criteria of the sea ice grade match well,and the joint intensity index can be used to quantify the sea ice condition over the years.A time series analysis of the sea ice grades and the joint intensity index sequences based on the joint criteria are then performed.Results show a decreasing trend of the sea ice condition from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020,a mutation in 1990/1991,and a period of approximately 91 years of the sea ice condition.In addition,the Gray-Markov model(GMM)is applied to predict the joint sea ice grade and the joint intensity index of the sea ice condition series in future years,and the error between the results and the actual sea ice condition in 2020/2021 is small.

海洋科考装备技术发展战略研究

海洋科考装备是发展海洋科学的重要基础。近年来我国自主研发的海洋科考装备接连取得突破,部分装备已达到国际先进水平,但依然存在诸多技术问题。本文以海洋科考装备发展战略需求为导向,围绕科考船、潜水器、浮标潜标、海洋传感器和海洋观测系统等调研国内外海洋科考装备发展现状;分析我国海洋科考装备技术发展在关键组件、技术发展、数据管理、基础保障、需求匹配等方面遇到的问题;总结面向深远海和极地的绿色化、无人化、智能化、协同化的未来发展趋势;梳理总体和各分类装备发展中需要注重的关键核心技术。在此基础上,从梳理短板技术重点突破、加强统筹协同提高保障能力、完善创新机制促进多学科交叉融合、强化市场思维推动产业化进程、依托先进科考平台拓展国际合作等方面提出发展建议,以期为进一步推动海洋科考装备快速发展提供参考。

巴伦支海近岸海流统计分析

收集巴伦支海海域近岸1996-2015年海流数据,提取各年流速最大值得到不分方向的年极值流速序列,绘制16个方向的海流流速玫瑰图,选取N至S向9个流向的各年流速最大值得到9个分向的年极值流速序列。采用4种概率模型,即GEV分布,Gumbel分布,Weibull分布和P-III型分布,对抽取的年极值流速序列进行拟合,采用K-S检验和均方根误差法(RMSE)对分布进行拟合优度检验。选取一工程点并计算得到该点处的分方向和不分方向的年极值流速多年一遇重现值。