Ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) and least squares linear fitting(LSLF) are applied to estimate the historical trends of surface air temperature(SAT) from observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Proj...Ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) and least squares linear fitting(LSLF) are applied to estimate the historical trends of surface air temperature(SAT) from observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) simulations during the period 1901–2005. The magnitudes of trends estimated by the two approaches are comparable. The trend calculated by the EEMD approach is larger than that by the LSLF approach in most(23/27) of the models during 1901–2005. During the slow warming period, the EEMD trend is smaller than the LSLF trend. The rootmean-square errors(RMSEs) between the raw and reconstructed times series by the LSLF approach are larger than those by the EEMD trend component and multi-decadal variability components during 1901–2005 in most of the models and observations. During 1901–70(or 1971–2005), the RMSEs between the raw and reconstructed times series by LSLF are larger than those by the EEMD trend component. In this sense, the EEMD trend is a better choice to obtain the climate trends in observations and CMIP5 models, especially for short time periods. This is because the trend estimated by LSLF cannot capture the internal variability and the cooling in some years. The estimated global warming rates(trend) are consistently larger(smaller) than those from observations in 11 of 27 CMIP5 models during 1901–2005 in the slow and rapid warming periods. This implies these 11 models have consistent responses to greenhouse gases for any period.展开更多
Close-to-nature forest management has been proposed as an effective method for improving the quality of plantation forests. Knowledge of spatial distribution patterns, structure, and succession trajectories in natural...Close-to-nature forest management has been proposed as an effective method for improving the quality of plantation forests. Knowledge of spatial distribution patterns, structure, and succession trajectories in natural forests can provide guidelines for the establishment of close-to-nature forest plantations. Such knowledge is lacking in natural spruce(Picea crassifolia) forests in the Qilian Mountains of China, impeding the establishment of production forests. We conducted a case study in the Qilian Mountains to analyze the relationships between the naturally-formed forest patches and terrain factors, spatial heterogeneity of stand characteristics, and stand structure following harvesting disturbance. Our results suggested that spruce plantations will be effective on the N, NE, and NW slopes, at elevations between 2700 and 3300 m, and on slopes ranging from 15° to 45°. Further, planted forest patches should occupy 64% of the slope area on semi-shady slopes(NE, NW). Spatial patterns in the studied forest exhibited a strong scale-effect, and an area of 0.25 ha could be used as the most efficient plot scale for the management of spruce plantations. Partial logging is an effective method for the conversion of spruce planted forests into nearnatural forests, and the intensity of partial logging can be determined from the negative exponential function relationship between stand density and DBH. Our results provided critical information for the development of spruce plantations and conversion of existing plantations.展开更多
基金the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences (Grant No. 2010CB950502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41376019 and 41023002)the"Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA11010304)
文摘Ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) and least squares linear fitting(LSLF) are applied to estimate the historical trends of surface air temperature(SAT) from observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) simulations during the period 1901–2005. The magnitudes of trends estimated by the two approaches are comparable. The trend calculated by the EEMD approach is larger than that by the LSLF approach in most(23/27) of the models during 1901–2005. During the slow warming period, the EEMD trend is smaller than the LSLF trend. The rootmean-square errors(RMSEs) between the raw and reconstructed times series by the LSLF approach are larger than those by the EEMD trend component and multi-decadal variability components during 1901–2005 in most of the models and observations. During 1901–70(or 1971–2005), the RMSEs between the raw and reconstructed times series by LSLF are larger than those by the EEMD trend component. In this sense, the EEMD trend is a better choice to obtain the climate trends in observations and CMIP5 models, especially for short time periods. This is because the trend estimated by LSLF cannot capture the internal variability and the cooling in some years. The estimated global warming rates(trend) are consistently larger(smaller) than those from observations in 11 of 27 CMIP5 models during 1901–2005 in the slow and rapid warming periods. This implies these 11 models have consistent responses to greenhouse gases for any period.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41522102,41701296,and 41601051)the CAS“Light of West China”Program
文摘Close-to-nature forest management has been proposed as an effective method for improving the quality of plantation forests. Knowledge of spatial distribution patterns, structure, and succession trajectories in natural forests can provide guidelines for the establishment of close-to-nature forest plantations. Such knowledge is lacking in natural spruce(Picea crassifolia) forests in the Qilian Mountains of China, impeding the establishment of production forests. We conducted a case study in the Qilian Mountains to analyze the relationships between the naturally-formed forest patches and terrain factors, spatial heterogeneity of stand characteristics, and stand structure following harvesting disturbance. Our results suggested that spruce plantations will be effective on the N, NE, and NW slopes, at elevations between 2700 and 3300 m, and on slopes ranging from 15° to 45°. Further, planted forest patches should occupy 64% of the slope area on semi-shady slopes(NE, NW). Spatial patterns in the studied forest exhibited a strong scale-effect, and an area of 0.25 ha could be used as the most efficient plot scale for the management of spruce plantations. Partial logging is an effective method for the conversion of spruce planted forests into nearnatural forests, and the intensity of partial logging can be determined from the negative exponential function relationship between stand density and DBH. Our results provided critical information for the development of spruce plantations and conversion of existing plantations.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China[grant numbers 2010CB950502 and 2013CB956204]the‘Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issues’of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA05110302]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41376019 and 41376039]
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China[grant number 2013CB956204]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41576025],[grant number 41275084],[grant number 41075059]the Strategic Priority Research Program entitled‘Western Pacific Ocean System:Structure,Dynamics and Consequences’of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010304]
