The Tibetan Plateau （TP） holds ten thousands of alpine glaciers in mid-latitude. They have shrunk with an accelerating retreat rate recently. We applied a distributed temperature-index massbalance model developed by...The Tibetan Plateau （TP） holds ten thousands of alpine glaciers in mid-latitude. They have shrunk with an accelerating retreat rate recently. We applied a distributed temperature-index massbalance model developed by Regine Hock, and coupled with a volume-area scaling method to Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier （XDG） in the central TP, to assess its response to climate change. The result shows the simulated mass balance is in a good agreement with observations （R2=0.75, p〈0.001） during the period of 1989-2012. The simulated mean annual mass balance （-213 mm w.e.） is close to the observation （-233 mm w.e.）, indicating the model can be used to estimate the glacier variation in the future. Then the model was forced under the climate scenarios by the output of RegCM4 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2013 to 2050. The simulated terminus elevation of the glacier will rise from 5454 m a.s.1, in 2o13 to 5533 m a.s.1. （RCP4.5） and 5543 m a.s.1. （RCP8.5） in 2050. XDG will lose its volume with an increasing rate of 600-700 m3 a-1 during the period of 1989-2o5o, indicating the melting water will enhance the river runoff. But for the long term, the contribution to the river runoff will decrease for the shrinkage of glacier scale.展开更多
The Qinling Mountains are the main source of water supply to the Weihe River and Hanjiang River,but systematic studies on runoff changes in this region are lacking.This study simulated the annual runoff in the Qinling...The Qinling Mountains are the main source of water supply to the Weihe River and Hanjiang River,but systematic studies on runoff changes in this region are lacking.This study simulated the annual runoff in the Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)hydrological model and projected runoff changes from 2015 to 2100 under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs).Moreover,the water demand in the north and south of the Qinling Mountains from 2019 to 2100 was analyzed by constructing a system dynamic method.The results show that the mean annual runoff in the southern and northern slopes of the Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015 were 21.5×10^(9) and 3.52×10^(9) m^(3),respectively.Under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2015 to 2100,the mean annual runoff in the southern(northern)slope will increase by 2.9(1.5),2.0(1.4),2.7(1.6),and-2.1(0.4)×10^(9) m^(3),respectively.The mean annual water consumption in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains for Baoji,Xi’an,and Weinan cities is projected to increase from 4.1×10^(9) m^(3) in 2015 to 7.6×10^(9) m^(3) in 2100,while that in the southern foothills for Hanzhong,Ankang,and Shangluo cites is projected to increase from 2.7×10^(9) m^(3) in 2015 to 4.8×10^(9) m^(3) in 2100.Thus,runoff in the southern slope is much larger than the water demand in the southern foothill.The increase of runoff in the northern slope cannot satisfy the water demand in the northern foothill.Therefore,the South-to-North Water Transfer project is proposed for meeting the water demand in the northern foothill.Under the premise of ensuring downstream water demand,approximately 10.5×10^(9) m^(3) of water resources can be transferred from the southern slope to the Weihe River and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan regions under SSP1-2.6,but only 3.9×10^(9) m^(3) can be transferred under SSP5-8.5.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41401226,41190080 and 41571062)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No.2015M570865)
文摘The Tibetan Plateau （TP） holds ten thousands of alpine glaciers in mid-latitude. They have shrunk with an accelerating retreat rate recently. We applied a distributed temperature-index massbalance model developed by Regine Hock, and coupled with a volume-area scaling method to Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier （XDG） in the central TP, to assess its response to climate change. The result shows the simulated mass balance is in a good agreement with observations （R2=0.75, p〈0.001） during the period of 1989-2012. The simulated mean annual mass balance （-213 mm w.e.） is close to the observation （-233 mm w.e.）, indicating the model can be used to estimate the glacier variation in the future. Then the model was forced under the climate scenarios by the output of RegCM4 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2013 to 2050. The simulated terminus elevation of the glacier will rise from 5454 m a.s.1, in 2o13 to 5533 m a.s.1. （RCP4.5） and 5543 m a.s.1. （RCP8.5） in 2050. XDG will lose its volume with an increasing rate of 600-700 m3 a-1 during the period of 1989-2o5o, indicating the melting water will enhance the river runoff. But for the long term, the contribution to the river runoff will decrease for the shrinkage of glacier scale.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41771030,41901071)。
文摘The Qinling Mountains are the main source of water supply to the Weihe River and Hanjiang River,but systematic studies on runoff changes in this region are lacking.This study simulated the annual runoff in the Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)hydrological model and projected runoff changes from 2015 to 2100 under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs).Moreover,the water demand in the north and south of the Qinling Mountains from 2019 to 2100 was analyzed by constructing a system dynamic method.The results show that the mean annual runoff in the southern and northern slopes of the Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015 were 21.5×10^(9) and 3.52×10^(9) m^(3),respectively.Under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2015 to 2100,the mean annual runoff in the southern(northern)slope will increase by 2.9(1.5),2.0(1.4),2.7(1.6),and-2.1(0.4)×10^(9) m^(3),respectively.The mean annual water consumption in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains for Baoji,Xi’an,and Weinan cities is projected to increase from 4.1×10^(9) m^(3) in 2015 to 7.6×10^(9) m^(3) in 2100,while that in the southern foothills for Hanzhong,Ankang,and Shangluo cites is projected to increase from 2.7×10^(9) m^(3) in 2015 to 4.8×10^(9) m^(3) in 2100.Thus,runoff in the southern slope is much larger than the water demand in the southern foothill.The increase of runoff in the northern slope cannot satisfy the water demand in the northern foothill.Therefore,the South-to-North Water Transfer project is proposed for meeting the water demand in the northern foothill.Under the premise of ensuring downstream water demand,approximately 10.5×10^(9) m^(3) of water resources can be transferred from the southern slope to the Weihe River and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan regions under SSP1-2.6,but only 3.9×10^(9) m^(3) can be transferred under SSP5-8.5.
