利用1961—2015年宁夏逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA海温资料,分析了宁夏夏季极端降水的变化规律及其成因。结果表明:1)55年来宁夏夏季极端降水日数呈微弱减少趋势,但变率在1994年发生了由大到小的气候突变。各月极端降水的...利用1961—2015年宁夏逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA海温资料,分析了宁夏夏季极端降水的变化规律及其成因。结果表明:1)55年来宁夏夏季极端降水日数呈微弱减少趋势,但变率在1994年发生了由大到小的气候突变。各月极端降水的变化存在差异:6月极端降水日数在1982年发生突变,突变后日数显著增多;7月极端降水日数呈微弱减少趋势;8月极端降水日数在1995年发生突变,突变后日数显著减少。2)500 h Pa高度场上6月中国华北—东北与西太平洋上的偶极型异常分布、8月西西伯利亚—蒙古—副热带地区的遥相关波列和EAP异常分布型以及700h Pa上宁夏6月偏东风增强和8月偏北风增强,是导致极端降水事件变化的直接原因。3)6月菲律宾附近海温偏高,有利于500 h Pa高度距平场形成华北—东北与西太平洋的"+-"偶极型异常分布;8月拉尼娜事件的发生,有利于我国呈现西低东高分布型,激发EAP遥相关波列,冷空气与水汽条件相配合,从而导致宁夏极端降水事件频发。展开更多
Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of M...Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accuracy rate of short-term climate prediction and practicality. The MO is most likely to be late (early) with the warm (cold) phase of CP-ENSO in previous boreal February and spring. CP-ENSO affects MO mainly by means of EAP (East Asian-Pacific) or JP (Japanese-Pacific) teleconnection, in which the tropical western North Pacific anticyclone plays an important role. In the years of CP-ENSO warm phase, the tropical warm wet water vapor transportation to YHRV is late. The anomalous positive sea surface temperature near the equatorial central Pacific results in late northward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high and late establishment of Indian southwest monsoon via air-sea interaction, which leads to late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations over East Asia from boreal spring to summer. Late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations and late tropical warm wet water vapor transport to YHRV are the primary reasons that cause the late MO. The situations are directly opposite in the years of CP-ENSO cold phase.展开更多
文摘利用1961—2015年宁夏逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA海温资料,分析了宁夏夏季极端降水的变化规律及其成因。结果表明:1)55年来宁夏夏季极端降水日数呈微弱减少趋势,但变率在1994年发生了由大到小的气候突变。各月极端降水的变化存在差异:6月极端降水日数在1982年发生突变,突变后日数显著增多;7月极端降水日数呈微弱减少趋势;8月极端降水日数在1995年发生突变,突变后日数显著减少。2)500 h Pa高度场上6月中国华北—东北与西太平洋上的偶极型异常分布、8月西西伯利亚—蒙古—副热带地区的遥相关波列和EAP异常分布型以及700h Pa上宁夏6月偏东风增强和8月偏北风增强,是导致极端降水事件变化的直接原因。3)6月菲律宾附近海温偏高,有利于500 h Pa高度距平场形成华北—东北与西太平洋的"+-"偶极型异常分布;8月拉尼娜事件的发生,有利于我国呈现西低东高分布型,激发EAP遥相关波列,冷空气与水汽条件相配合,从而导致宁夏极端降水事件频发。
基金Supported jointly by the China Meteorological Administration Project (Grant No. GYHY200706005)the Applied Basic and Front Technology Research Project for Tianjin (Grant No. 08JCYBJC10300)the Technological Innovation Foundation Program of Beijing Regional Meteorological Center (Grant No. BRMCCJ200705)
文摘Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accuracy rate of short-term climate prediction and practicality. The MO is most likely to be late (early) with the warm (cold) phase of CP-ENSO in previous boreal February and spring. CP-ENSO affects MO mainly by means of EAP (East Asian-Pacific) or JP (Japanese-Pacific) teleconnection, in which the tropical western North Pacific anticyclone plays an important role. In the years of CP-ENSO warm phase, the tropical warm wet water vapor transportation to YHRV is late. The anomalous positive sea surface temperature near the equatorial central Pacific results in late northward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high and late establishment of Indian southwest monsoon via air-sea interaction, which leads to late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations over East Asia from boreal spring to summer. Late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations and late tropical warm wet water vapor transport to YHRV are the primary reasons that cause the late MO. The situations are directly opposite in the years of CP-ENSO cold phase.
