China has promulgated a series of policies including the Western Development Program, the Grain for Green Project, agricultural support policies and building a new countryside strategy to eliminate east-west differenc...China has promulgated a series of policies including the Western Development Program, the Grain for Green Project, agricultural support policies and building a new countryside strategy to eliminate east-west differences and urban-rural disparities since the late 1990s. This paper gives a holistic examination on local responses to the four typical macro socio-economic development policies and their effects on rural system based on a case study of a mountainous village in southern Sichuan Province. The results showed that the policies have not moved the case study village from its historically marginal status. To some extent, its socio-economic situation might have been worsened by accelerated out- migration of the youth, loss of agricultural land due to afforestation and industrial plants, increased fire hazard due to afforestation and reforestation, increased environmental pollution due to industrial enterprises attracted to the village and a steep decline in agricultural production due to loss of and inefficient use of cultivated land. Factors causing local villages' dilemmas include the nonuniformity of actors' objectives, finiteness of villagers' abilities, and the imperfect incentive and restraint mechanism for local government's activities under existing policy framework composed of uncoordinated one-size-fits- all policies. We suggest that China's rural policy in the new period should gradually shift from a sectoral to a place-based one, from top-down incentives to the development of bottom-up projects, and fully recognize the diversity of rural space, so as to lift localcapacities and make good use of the knowledge shared by different actors. Moreover, it is also necessary to integrate the various sectoral policies, and improve the interministerial and interdepartmental coordination of rural policies at regional and local levels.展开更多
A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., eco...A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance). In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model (IPAPSOM) is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41201176,41130748and41171149)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant Nos.2011M500029 and 2012T50126)
文摘China has promulgated a series of policies including the Western Development Program, the Grain for Green Project, agricultural support policies and building a new countryside strategy to eliminate east-west differences and urban-rural disparities since the late 1990s. This paper gives a holistic examination on local responses to the four typical macro socio-economic development policies and their effects on rural system based on a case study of a mountainous village in southern Sichuan Province. The results showed that the policies have not moved the case study village from its historically marginal status. To some extent, its socio-economic situation might have been worsened by accelerated out- migration of the youth, loss of agricultural land due to afforestation and industrial plants, increased fire hazard due to afforestation and reforestation, increased environmental pollution due to industrial enterprises attracted to the village and a steep decline in agricultural production due to loss of and inefficient use of cultivated land. Factors causing local villages' dilemmas include the nonuniformity of actors' objectives, finiteness of villagers' abilities, and the imperfect incentive and restraint mechanism for local government's activities under existing policy framework composed of uncoordinated one-size-fits- all policies. We suggest that China's rural policy in the new period should gradually shift from a sectoral to a place-based one, from top-down incentives to the development of bottom-up projects, and fully recognize the diversity of rural space, so as to lift localcapacities and make good use of the knowledge shared by different actors. Moreover, it is also necessary to integrate the various sectoral policies, and improve the interministerial and interdepartmental coordination of rural policies at regional and local levels.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130748, 41101162)the Key Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-304)
文摘A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance). In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model (IPAPSOM) is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.