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基于多变量概率模型的钻井周期预测方法 被引量:2
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作者 luu quang hung LAU Man Fai +3 位作者 NG Sebastian P.H. TING Clement P.W. WEE Reuben THEN Patrick H.H. 《石油勘探与开发》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第4期851-860,共10页
鉴于现有的预测钻井周期的方法忽视了影响钻井周期的关键因素因而精确度有限,提出采用多变量概率法预测钻井周期,并采用实测数据进行了算例分析和验证。利用自适应核密度估计法建立了各主要钻井阶段与深度相关的钻井周期概率模型,结合... 鉴于现有的预测钻井周期的方法忽视了影响钻井周期的关键因素因而精确度有限,提出采用多变量概率法预测钻井周期,并采用实测数据进行了算例分析和验证。利用自适应核密度估计法建立了各主要钻井阶段与深度相关的钻井周期概率模型,结合蒙特卡洛模拟得出了一次完整钻井施工作业的总周期的概率分布。采用该方法对澳大利亚及亚洲地区192口井的钻井周期进行了预测。尽管现有数据记录不全,但经过统计分析发现,模型模拟结果与实测数据的匹配度很高。研究表明,在10%~90%的置信区间内,总钻井周期比无事故钻井周期延长至少4 d,至多12 d。采用该方法可以得到钻至一定深度的可能的施工周期,有利于评价整个钻井施工过程的风险,模拟数据还可以用于机器学习模型的训练。图10表2参34。 展开更多
关键词 钻井周期 多变量概率模型 概率法 马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法
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Numerical Investigation on Dynamics of the Tendon System of A TLP by Applying Absolute Nodal Coordinate Formulation 被引量:2
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作者 luu quang hung KANG Zhuang +1 位作者 ZHANG Cheng JIE Li-shao 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第3期384-397,共14页
In the present study,the dynamics of the tendon system of a tension-leg platform(TLP)is investigated through the absolute nodal coordinate formulation(ANCF).Based on the energy conversion principle,the stiffness,gener... In the present study,the dynamics of the tendon system of a tension-leg platform(TLP)is investigated through the absolute nodal coordinate formulation(ANCF).Based on the energy conversion principle,the stiffness,generalized elastic force,external load and mass matrices of the element are deduced to perform the element assembling by using the finite element method.Then the motion equation of the tendon/riser is established.In this study,the TLP in the International Ship Structures Committee(ISSC)model under the first and second wave forces is considered as the case study.The simulation is performed in the MATLAB environment.Moreover,the accuracy and reliability of the programs are verified for cases of beam model with theoretical solutions.It is found that the motion response of tendons is affected by the TLP movement and environmental load,simultaneously.Then,the motion response is calculated using the SESAM software and exported as the boundary of ANCF tendons.Finally,the static and dynamic characteristics of the four tendons of ISSC TLP are analyzed systematically by the ANCF method.Performed analysis proves the effectiveness and feasibility of the ANCF method.It is concluded that the proposed method is a powerful scheme for calculating the dynamics of tendon/riser in the field of ocean engineering. 展开更多
关键词 Absolute nodal coordinate formulation(ANCF) tendon/riser TLP platform large deformation top and middle nodes wave direction
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