青藏高原耕地的空间分异及其影响因素

基于0.51~1.02 m的Google Earth高分影像,目视解译获取2018年青藏高原耕地数据;运用GIS和地理探测器,识别耕地空间分异及影响因素。结果表明:①2018年青藏高原有耕地133.73万hm^(2),呈东多西少,南多北少的分异特征,其中33.27%聚集在一江两河地区和湟水河流域,76.02%和75.41%分布在距道路1600 m和距河流5 000 m范围内;②受地形、气候影响,耕地以海拔3 500~4 000 m、坡度6°~15°、年均降水量400~600 mm和年均温度0~5℃分布最集中,其它区域面积较少,呈点状分布;③耕地空间格局受地形、气候等自然因子和经济、人口等人文因子共同影响,以生长季日照时数、生长季降水和坡度影响最大,基本决定了青藏高原耕地的空间格局。

气候变化背景下未来西藏粮食供需平衡状况预测

基于组合预测法、生产函数和笔者前期关于气候变化对西藏粮食产量定量影响的工作,对考虑气候变化影响的未来西藏县(区)级尺度粮食供需平衡状况进行预测。结果表明:①西藏粮食产量较高的区域集中在一江两河等河谷地带,西藏粮食需求量较大的地区主要在人口较多的县市,未来肉类消费增加将会消耗更多的饲料用粮。②西藏粮食供需平衡状况南北分异明显,南部河谷地区相对较好,北部羌塘高原较差。③当前西藏不能实现考虑口粮、饲料粮、工业用粮、种子用粮和损耗5种需求总和的粮食供需平衡,全区自给率为70.58%,2030年和2050年分别下降至62.59%和53.55%。虽然西藏总需求不能完全自给,但仍能保障口粮自给。④气候变化整体上对自给率为正面影响。到2030年和2050年,气候变化将使自治区粮食自给状况提升2.45%和2.09%。研究有助于掌握未来西藏粮食安全状况,规划农业布局,以期保障边疆粮食安全、促进高原农业可持续发展。

Crop production changes and the impact of Grain for Green program in the Loess Plateau of China

Since the Grain for Green(GFG)program was implemented in 1999,most steeply sloping farmlands in the Loess Plateau of China have been returned to forestland and grassland.To understand its impact on the food production,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of food crop production(FCP)in the plateau and quantified the contribution of sown area and yield changes to the total FCP during 1998–2014 using factor decomposition models,and then discussed the impact of GFG program on the FCP based on literature data.With the implementation of GFG program,total sown area in the Loess Plateau quickly deceased by 17.3%from 1998 to 2003,and then gradually restored to 1.03×107 hm2 in 2010.Thereafter,it slightly decreased to 1.02×107 hm2(94.6%of the area in 1998)in 2014.By contrast,total FCP generally showed an apparent growth trend,averagely increased by 1.71%per year in the whole plateau during 1998–2014.This increase was jointly contributed by the improved yield of individual crops,and the adjustment of cropping structure,i.e.,the expansion of high yield maize crop.The factor decomposition analysis results indicate that the sown area shrinkage only reduced the growth rate of total FCP by 0.29%per year during 1998–2014,although a significant impact was found for the early stage of 1999–2003.The results suggest that the implementation of GFG program would not induce an obvious risk of the food security.Therefore,it is suggested that the GFG program should be set as a long-term strategic policy,by not only supporting the conversion of slope farmlands,but also helping local farmers to seek sustainable ways of land use to improve the income and livelihood.It can be combined with the poverty eradication program,to simultaneously achieve the national goals of ecological civilization building and the livelihood improvement of rural people in the Loess Plateau.Considering rainfall limitation,the conversion of slope farmlands should be prioritized to grasslands.

沙钢2号高炉折返式布料操作实践

对沙钢2号高炉采取折返式布料的操作实践进行了总结。为了减少中心气流发生明显的周期性波动,在布矿过程中,当溜槽倾动至33°以后停止下倾,保持旋转状态,不再往中心洒落。通过三个阶段的调整,折返式布料操作取得了成功,高炉中心气流逐步趋于稳定。实施折返式布料后,高炉风量、产能得到提升,燃料消耗得到降低,铁水质量也随之提升,高炉抵抗外界波动能力得到加强。