The Jamaican primary dry season extends from November-April with the driest period being January-March each year. Examination of the rainfall records over several decades reveal months that experienced a sharp increas...The Jamaican primary dry season extends from November-April with the driest period being January-March each year. Examination of the rainfall records over several decades reveal months that experienced a sharp increase in rainfall while sometimes they are drier than normal. During this dry season, some of the weather systems that impact the island significantly are cold fronts, highs pressure systems and troughs that migrate from the mainland USA. Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) occur routinely north of 60°N and severely impact weather over the North American continent. The islands of the Greater Antilles also experience inclement weather during this period as weather systems migrate southwards and impact the Caribbean. Severe winter weather due to the increase frequency and intensity of storms related to SSW events over North America is important to the Jamaican economy as tourists escape harsh winters by travelling to the island. Predicting the variability of rainfall during the primary dry season is therefore important as it has significant implications for event planning, tourism and agriculture. Cosmic-ray Muon flux has been found to be positively correlated with the atmospheric effective temperature used to indicate the occurrence of SSW events. Current research investigates the relationship between cosmic-ray Muon flux, SSW events and primary dry season rainfall. Our findings suggest that a significant change in rainfall occur over Jamaica during the primary dry season on average 29 days after the central date or on average 15 days after the SSW events end. Our study also suggests apparent similarities in the behaviour of cosmic-ray Muon flux over Jamaica to those when major SSW occurs at high latitudes. We therefore argue that the Muon detectors at low latitudes have practical use with respect to identifying SSWs and merits further study.展开更多
The apparent teleconnection between cosmic-ray muon flux over a base point in the Caribbean is discussed against the background of an extensive record of indices representing large-scale climatic phenomena, but limite...The apparent teleconnection between cosmic-ray muon flux over a base point in the Caribbean is discussed against the background of an extensive record of indices representing large-scale climatic phenomena, but limited cosmic-ray muon flux data. Many investigators have shown that large-scale climate phenomena influence sub-seasonal and seasonal climate variability, especially in the northern hemisphere and their impacts on the Caribbean are well documented. These climatic phenomena that impact the Caribbean include, but are not limited to, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation which is now being investigated. Although strong statistical correlation between variables over non-contiguous regions are not absolute as proof of teleconnections, the correlation strength can be used as an indication of its existence. The data gathered at the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies, in Jamaica, using a simple QuarkNet 6000 muon detector over the period September 2011 to September 2013, showed an apparent significant relationship with these climatic indices. This suggests that cosmic-ray muon flux might be linked to the behavior of the climate phenomena and therefore can be used as a climate or meteorological index over the Caribbean.展开更多
文摘The Jamaican primary dry season extends from November-April with the driest period being January-March each year. Examination of the rainfall records over several decades reveal months that experienced a sharp increase in rainfall while sometimes they are drier than normal. During this dry season, some of the weather systems that impact the island significantly are cold fronts, highs pressure systems and troughs that migrate from the mainland USA. Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) occur routinely north of 60°N and severely impact weather over the North American continent. The islands of the Greater Antilles also experience inclement weather during this period as weather systems migrate southwards and impact the Caribbean. Severe winter weather due to the increase frequency and intensity of storms related to SSW events over North America is important to the Jamaican economy as tourists escape harsh winters by travelling to the island. Predicting the variability of rainfall during the primary dry season is therefore important as it has significant implications for event planning, tourism and agriculture. Cosmic-ray Muon flux has been found to be positively correlated with the atmospheric effective temperature used to indicate the occurrence of SSW events. Current research investigates the relationship between cosmic-ray Muon flux, SSW events and primary dry season rainfall. Our findings suggest that a significant change in rainfall occur over Jamaica during the primary dry season on average 29 days after the central date or on average 15 days after the SSW events end. Our study also suggests apparent similarities in the behaviour of cosmic-ray Muon flux over Jamaica to those when major SSW occurs at high latitudes. We therefore argue that the Muon detectors at low latitudes have practical use with respect to identifying SSWs and merits further study.
文摘The apparent teleconnection between cosmic-ray muon flux over a base point in the Caribbean is discussed against the background of an extensive record of indices representing large-scale climatic phenomena, but limited cosmic-ray muon flux data. Many investigators have shown that large-scale climate phenomena influence sub-seasonal and seasonal climate variability, especially in the northern hemisphere and their impacts on the Caribbean are well documented. These climatic phenomena that impact the Caribbean include, but are not limited to, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation which is now being investigated. Although strong statistical correlation between variables over non-contiguous regions are not absolute as proof of teleconnections, the correlation strength can be used as an indication of its existence. The data gathered at the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies, in Jamaica, using a simple QuarkNet 6000 muon detector over the period September 2011 to September 2013, showed an apparent significant relationship with these climatic indices. This suggests that cosmic-ray muon flux might be linked to the behavior of the climate phenomena and therefore can be used as a climate or meteorological index over the Caribbean.
