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验证一个预测肺栓塞患者不良预后的模型
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作者 Aujesky D. Roy p. - M. +2 位作者 le manach c. p. 田志(译) 杜媛(校) 《世界核心医学期刊文摘(心脏病学分册)》 2006年第6期55-55,共1页
Aims: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism(PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients. Methods and results: We validated the model in 367 patients pr... Aims: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism(PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients. Methods and results: We validated the model in 367 patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at 117 European emergency departments. We used baseline data for the model’ s 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes(I- V). We compared 90- day mortality within each risk class and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the validation and the original derivation samples. We also assessed the rate of recurrent venous thrombo- embolism and major bleeding within each risk class. Mortality was 0% in Risk Class I, 1.0% in Class II, 3.1% in Class III, 10.4% in Class IV, and 24.4% in Class V and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation samples. The area under the curve was larger in the validation sample(0.87 vs. 0.78, P=0.01). No patients in Classes I and II developed recurrent thrombo- embolism or major bleeding. Conclusion: The model accurately stratifies patients with PE into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other relevant complications. Patients in Risk Classes I and II are at low risk of adverse outcomes and are potential candidates for outpatient treatment. 展开更多
关键词 不良预后 肺栓塞 患者 模型 验证 ROC曲线下面积 静脉血栓栓塞 危险分层 预测 严重出血
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