Background:The novel coronavirus,severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2,also called 2019-nCoV)causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups.This study attempts to quantify...Background:The novel coronavirus,severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2,also called 2019-nCoV)causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups.This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model.Methods:An epidemiological model with five compartments(susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed[SEIAR])was developed based on observed transmission features.Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases were divided into four age groups:group 1,those≤14years old;group 2,those 15 to 44years old;group 3,those 45 to 64years old;and group 4,those≥65 years old.The model was initially based on cases(including imported cases and secondary cases)collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19,2020.Another dataset,from Jilin Province,was used to test the model.Results:The age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group(P<0.001).In Hunan Province,the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3(median:β43=7.71×10-9;SAR43=3.86×10-8),followed by group 3 to 4(median:β34=3.07×10-9;SAR34=1.53×10-8),group 2 to 2(median:β22=1.24×10-9;SAR22=6.21×10-9),and group 3 to 1(median:β31=4.10×10-10;SAR31=2.08×10-9).The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3(median:β33=1.64×10-19;SAR33=8.19×10-19),followed by group 4 to 4(median:β44=3.66×10-17;SAR44=1.83×10-16),group 3 to 2(median:β32=1.21×10-16;SAR32=6.06×10-16),and group 1 to 4(median:β14=7.20×10-14;SAR14=3.60×10-13).In Jilin Province,the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4(median:β43=4.27×10-8;SAR43=2.13×10-7),followed by group 3 to 4(median:β34=1.81×10-8;SAR34=9.03×10-8).Conclusions:SARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged(45 to 64 years old)and elderly(≥65 years old)people.Children(≤14 years old)have very low susceptibility to COVID-19.This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people.展开更多
基金This work was partly supported by the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics(SKLVD2019KF005)the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(INV-005834)+3 种基金the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province(No:2020Y0002)the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program(No:3502Z2020YJ03)the Hunan Provincial Construction of Innovative Provinces Special Social Development Areas Key Research and Development Project(2020SK3012)the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Coronavirus Disease 2019 Science and Technology Research Project in 2020(2020HY320003).
文摘Background:The novel coronavirus,severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2,also called 2019-nCoV)causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups.This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model.Methods:An epidemiological model with five compartments(susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed[SEIAR])was developed based on observed transmission features.Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases were divided into four age groups:group 1,those≤14years old;group 2,those 15 to 44years old;group 3,those 45 to 64years old;and group 4,those≥65 years old.The model was initially based on cases(including imported cases and secondary cases)collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19,2020.Another dataset,from Jilin Province,was used to test the model.Results:The age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group(P<0.001).In Hunan Province,the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3(median:β43=7.71×10-9;SAR43=3.86×10-8),followed by group 3 to 4(median:β34=3.07×10-9;SAR34=1.53×10-8),group 2 to 2(median:β22=1.24×10-9;SAR22=6.21×10-9),and group 3 to 1(median:β31=4.10×10-10;SAR31=2.08×10-9).The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3(median:β33=1.64×10-19;SAR33=8.19×10-19),followed by group 4 to 4(median:β44=3.66×10-17;SAR44=1.83×10-16),group 3 to 2(median:β32=1.21×10-16;SAR32=6.06×10-16),and group 1 to 4(median:β14=7.20×10-14;SAR14=3.60×10-13).In Jilin Province,the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4(median:β43=4.27×10-8;SAR43=2.13×10-7),followed by group 3 to 4(median:β34=1.81×10-8;SAR34=9.03×10-8).Conclusions:SARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged(45 to 64 years old)and elderly(≥65 years old)people.Children(≤14 years old)have very low susceptibility to COVID-19.This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people.
