Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport in the Haihe River Basin

The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin (HRB) inNorth China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of the interannual andinterdecadal variability of the water cycle over the HRB to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) phenomena were investigated using the observational and National Centers for Environmental Pre-diction (NCEP) reanalysis data. There was a strong interdecadal variability for the water cycle (such as precipitationand water vapor transport) over the region, with an abrupt change occurring mostly in the mid 1970s. The intensity ofthe East Asian summer monsoon largely affected the atmospheric water vapor transport. Generally, the net meridionalconvergence of the water vapor flux over the region was relatively large before 1965, and it declined gradually from thenon with a further notable decrease since mid 1970s. Zonal water vapor transport was similar to meridional, but with amuch smaller magnitude and no noteworthy turning in the mid 1970s. Results also suggested that the wind field playedan important role in the water vapor transport over the HRB before the mid 1960s, and the interdecadal variability ofthe water cycle (precipitation, water vapor transport, etc.) in the summer was related to the PDO; however, interannualvariation of the water vapor transport could also be related to the ENSO phenomena.

The Relationship between the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Summer Precipitation over East Asia as Simulated by the IAP AGCM4.0

Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV), and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes.

Interdecadal Variability of Spring Precipitation over South China and Its Associated Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport

The characteristics of spring precipitation and water vapor transport in South China were analyzed by using observational data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. The results show that, during the spring, each component of the water cycle (precipitation, wind field, specific humidity, water vapor transport, etc.) in South China exhibits a notable interdecadal variability. An abrupt increase in spring precipitation occurred in the early 1970s. During the dry period from 1958 to 1971, a water vapor flux divergence (positive divQ) existed in South China, which may have led to the deficiency in rainfall. However, during the wet period from 1973 to 1989, there was a remarkable water vapor flux convergence (negative divQ) in South China, which may have resulted in the higher rainfall. The interdecadal variability of water vapor transport is closely related to the interdecadal variability of wind fields, although the interdecadal variability of specific humidity also plays a role to some extent, and the interdecadal variability of the zonal water vapor transport contributes much more to the interdecadal variability of spring precipitation than the meridional water vapor transport.

The Leading Mode of Wintertime Cold Wave Frequency in Northern China during the Last 42 Years and Its Association with Arctic Oscillation

This study examined wintertime (November-April) cold wave frequency (CWF) in northern China during the last 42 years and its association with Arctic Oscillation (AO) through analysis of daily mean surface temperature from 280 stations across northern China and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-Year Re-analysis ERA-40 data. The leading empirical orthogonal function EOF mode of wintertime CWF (CWF-EOF1) indicates an identical signal over most northern China, with the characteristic trend of linear decline for the leading principal component (CWF-PC1). After the linear trend is removed, remarkable inter-annual variability is found to be the dominant feature of the CWF-PC1. The regression map for sea level pressure based on CWF-PC1 corresponds to the negative phase of AO. Correlation analysis further proves that CWF-PC1 has a significant negative correlation with AO at the inter-annual time scale. The relationship between AO and global surface air temperature is also investigated in order to understand its association with cold air activity over East Asia, and it is suggested that the anomalies of atmospheric circulation in Siberia may serve as a bridge for interaction between AO and CWF in northern China during wintertime.

A Solution on Pork Quality Traceability from Farm to Dinner Table in Tianjin City,China

In order to meet government supervision of pork production safety as well as consumer＇s right to know what they buy and protect the public safety of pork food, this study adopts animal identification, intelligent personal digital assistant （PDA） reading and writing, general packet radio service （GPRS）, and other information technologies, proposes a pork tracking and traceability inferstructure based on pork production substrace flow and data flow, designs the metadata structure and related datatbases for farming, slaughtering, and retailing sector based on intensive pig farming and smallhold pig farming, develops three different data-recording systems, and finally establishes a public network platform for the information inquiry in light of ＂the administrative rules on identification and rearing files for animal and poultry＂ in China. The farming process information system supplies early warning for the usage of drugs and feed additives based on data of every individual pig and timely uploading all events data to remote traceability database when pigs are sold; the PDA data collecting system can collect farming events data for pigs fed by farmers and submit to the center database by GPRS; the web-based Tianjin＇s pork traceability platform can integrate all identifications and related pork quality data from farming, slaughtering to marketing by online, and achieve pork tracking from product origin to consumption and tracing in the turnover direction. It is feasible to realize pork quality traceability by identification technologies developed and/or integrated, metadata specifications designed, three data-recording systems deyeloped, and web-inquiring platform established. Some individual technical bottlenecks will be resolved with the development of communication technologies. The full implementation in Tianjin, China, will supply technical support for guaranteeing the quality and safety of pork production and meeting consumer＇s demands.

Quantifying the attribution of model bias in simulating summer hot days in China with IAP AGCM 4.1

本文利用IAP大气环流模式1961–2005年的模拟结果,分析发现模式虽然可较好模拟出中国大陆夏季高温日数的空间分布特征,但对高温日数的模拟则普遍高估。通过分析观测和模式模拟的日最高温度的概率分布特征,定量评估了日最高温的均值和方差的模拟偏差对模式高估极端高温日数的相对贡献,指出日最高温度均值的模拟偏高是模式高估高温日数的主要原因,但日最高温方差的模拟偏差对高温日数的高估也有重要影响,以江淮地区8月份为例,其贡献可达22%。进一步分析表明,IAP模式未能模拟出江淮流域1980s年代前后极端高温日数的年代际减少,主要归因于模式未能模拟出1980s前后日最高气温均值的年代际减小,而模式未能模拟出日最高温方差的年代际减弱也起很大作用。

Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year(1981-2003) retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction system.It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal,which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models.By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature(SST) boundary conditions including observed,predicted,and persistent SSTs,the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated.It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill.Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill,which is closely related to model's capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin.This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies(SSTAs) in equatorial oceans.

Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China

A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) was investigated using two different models: a coupled land surface hydrological model(CLHMS), and a large-scale hydrological model(LSX-HMS). The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.

Uncertainty in Dust Budget over East Asia Simulated by WRF/Chem with Six Different Dust Emission Schemes

In this study, the dependence of dust budgets on dust emission schemes is investigated through the simulation of dust storm events, which occurred during 14–25 March 2002, over East Asia, by the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry(WRF/Chem) model coupled with six dust emission schemes. Generally, this model can reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of surface dust concentration; however, the simulated total dust budget differs significantly with different emission schemes. Moreover, uncertainties in the simulated dust budget vary among regions. It is suggested that the dust emission scheme affects the regional dust budget directly through its impact on the total emitted dust amount; however, the inflow and outflow of dust aerosols simulated by different schemes within a region also depend on the geographical location of the dust emission region. Furthermore, the size distribution of dust particles for a specific dust emission scheme has proven to be important for dust budget calculation due to the dependence of dust deposition amount on dust size distribution.

基于EOF分解的季节预测误差订正方法的改进及其应用检验（英文）

本文针对短期气候预测中的EOF误差订正方法,提出基于逐步回归改进EOF订正模态的选取及确定各模态对应时间系数的方法。改进后的订正方法显著提高了IAP AGCM4.1对中国东南地区夏季降水异常的预测技巧,30年(1981–2010年)平均的观测与订正后的模式回报夏季降水距平的空间相关系数(PCC)达到0.29,远高于订正前的0.01。该方法应用于2016年夏季降水的实际预测检验表明,采用改进后的订正方法可使得预测与模式预测结果的PCC提高到0.59,显著优于采用了改进前的订正方法的结果(PCC=0.37)。

Impact of Trans-Atlantic-Pacific Ocean Dipole–like pattern on summer precipitation variability over West Africa

本研究基于资料统计分析发现西非地区夏季降水与热带大西洋和太平洋海温异常存在紧密的关系;在此基础上提出可表征热带大西洋-太平洋海温异常结构特征的跨大西洋-太平洋偶极型(TAPOD)指数,该指数与西非夏季降水异常存在显著正相关。合成分析表明,当TAPOD指数为正位相时,热带大西洋地区海温为正异常、热带东太平洋海温为负异常,此时热带大西洋地区存在着显著的西风异常,西非地区则存在水汽净幅合异常,有利于该地区夏季降水的异常偏多;反之亦然。

The Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in a Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System

The potential predictability of climatological mean circulation and the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) were investigated using hindcast results from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System (IAP DCP),along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from the period of 1980-2000.The large-scale characteristics of the SCSSM monthly and seasonal mean low-level circulation have been well reproduced by IAP DCP,especially for the zonal wind at 850 hPa;furthermore,the hindcast variability also agrees quite well with observations.By introducing the South China Sea summer monsoon index,the potential predictability of IAP DCP for the intensity of the SCSSM has been evaluated.IAP DCP showed skill in predicting the interannual variation of SCSSM intensity.The result is highly encouraging;the correlation between the hindcasted and observed SCSSM Index was 0.58,which passes the 95% significance test.The result for the seasonal mean June-July-August SCSSM Index was better than that for the monthly mean,suggesting that seasonal forecasts are more reliable than monthly forecasts.

MJO potential predictability and predictive skill in IAP AGCM 4.1

MJO模拟及预报是现阶段大气科学研究的前沿问题。本文利用中科院大气物理所大气环流模式(IAP AGCM4.1)的集合回报结果,分析了MJO潜在可预报性及预报技巧。研究表明IAP AGCM4.1对MJO有着较好的潜在可预报性,且集合预报的潜在可预报性要明显优于单样本预报;就MJO的预报技巧而言,集合预报同样优于单样本预报;模式对MJO的预报技巧还显著依赖于预报初始时刻的MJO状态,初始MJO信号越强,模式对MJO的预报技巧也越高,且更接近可预报性的上限。

一种感温绝缘线夹

文章公开了某专利产品——一种实用新型感温绝缘线夹,介绍了该实用新型感温绝缘线夹的具体结构、技术方案、工作原理及优良性能。其能够直接肉眼观测到线夹的温度变化范围,安全可靠,具有防水绝缘,耐高温的特点,使用寿命长,便于拆卸。