Understanding the factors influencing cloud-core vertical accelerations during deep convection formation in the WRF model

本文将扰动气压利用一个线性诊断关系代替,重新推导了WRF模式框架地形追随坐标系下的垂直动量方程,建立了垂直加速与对流触发(DCI)影响因子(如温度,水汽等)的直接联系.研究发现,DCI过程与对流核垂直加速相关,三维副散,扰动位势在垂直方向的二阶非均匀性,扰动位温垂直梯度,比湿及其垂直梯度,水凝物拖曳,均是能够直接影响垂直加速和对流触发的物理因子,这些量与模式基本预报量相关,通过解析基本预报量对对流发展的直接影响,可能有助于理解模式对DCI过程预测失败的原因.

Impact of Soil Moisture Uncertainty on Summertime Short-range Ensemble Forecasts

To investigate the impact of soil moisture uncertainty on summertime short-range ensemble forecasts（SREFs）, a fivemember SREF experiment with perturbed initial soil moisture（ISM） was performed over a northern China domain in summertime from July to August 2014. Five soil moisture analyses from three different operational/research centers were used as the ISM for the ensemble. The ISM perturbation produced notable ensemble spread in near-surface variables and atmospheric variables below 800 h Pa, and produced skillful ensemble-mean 24-h accumulated precipitation（APCP24） forecasts that outperformed any single ensemble member. Compared with a second SREF experiment with mixed microphysics parameterization options, the ISM-perturbed ensemble produced comparable ensemble spread in APCP24 forecasts, and had better Brier scores and resolution in probabilistic APCP24 forecasts for 10-mm, 25-mm and 50-mm thresholds. The ISM-perturbed ensemble produced obviously larger ensemble spread in near-surface variables. It was, however, still under-dispersed, indicating that perturbing ISM alone may not be adequate in representing all the uncertainty at the near-surface level, indicating further SREF studies are needed to better represent the uncertainties in land surface processes and their coupling with the atmosphere.

Comparative Analysis of the Generalized Omega Equation and Generalized Vertical Motion Equation

Research on vertical motion in mesoscale systems is an extraordinarily challenging effort.Allowing for fewer assumptions,a new form of generalized vertical motion equation and a generalized Omega equation are derived in the Cartesian coordinate system(nonhydrostatic equilibrium)and the isobaric coordinate system(hydrostatic equilibrium),respectively.The terms on the right-hand side of the equations,which comprise the Q vector,are composed of three factors:dynamic,thermodynamic,and mass.A heavy rain event that occurred from 18 to 19 July 2021 in southern Xinjiang was selected to analyze the characteristics of the diagnostic variable in the generalized vertical motion equation(Qz)and the diagnostic variable in the generalized Omega equation(Qp)using high-resolution model data.The results show that the horizontal distribution of the Qz-vector divergence at 5.5 km is roughly similar to the distribution of the Qp-vector divergence at 500 hPa,and that both relate well to the composite radar reflectivity,vertical motion,and hourly accumulated precipitation.The Qz-vector divergence is more effective in indicating weak precipitation.In vertical cross sections,regions with alternating positive and negative large values that match the precipitation are mainly concentrated in the middle levels for both forms of Q vectors.The temporal evolutions of vertically integrated Qz-vector divergence and Qp-vector divergence are generally similar.Both perform better than the classical quasigeostrophic Q vector and nongeostrophic Q vector in indicating the development of the precipitation system.

The Impact of Deformation on Vortex Development in a Baroclinic Moist Atmosphere

A mathematical relation between deformation and vertical vorticity tendency is built by introducing the frontogenesis function and the complete vertical vorticity equation, which is derived by virtue of moist potential vorticity. From the mathematical relation, it is shown that properly configured atmospheric conditions can make deformation exert a positive contribution to vortex development at rates comparable to other favorable factors. The effect of deformation on vortex development is not only related to the deformation itself, but also depends on the current thermodynamic and dynamic structures of the atmosphere, such as the convective stability, moist baroclinicity and vertical wind shear （or horizontal vorticity）. A diagnostic study of a heavy-rainfall case that occurred during 20-22 July 2012 shows that deformation has the most remarkable effect on the increase in vertical vorticity during the rapid development stage of the low vortex during its whole life cycle. This feature is mainly due to the existence of an approximate neutral layer （about 700 hPa） in the atmosphere where the convective stability tends to be zero. The neutral layer makes the effect of deformation on the vertical vorticity increase significantly during the vortex development stage, and thus drives the vertical vorticity to increase.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Inertia-Gravity Waves during an Orographic Precipitation Event

A numerical experiment was performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model to analyze the generation and propagation of inertia-gravity waves during an orographic rainstorm that occurred in the Sichuan area on 17 August 2014. To examine the spatial and temporal structures of the inertia-gravity waves and identify the wave types, three wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis methods（Fourier analysis, cross-spectral analysis, and wavelet cross-spectrum analysis）were applied. During the storm, inertia-gravity waves appeared at heights of 10-14 km, with periods of 80-100 min and wavelengths of 40-50 km. These waves were generated over a mountain and propagated eastward at an average speed of 15-20 m s^（-1）. Meanwhile, comparison between the reconstructed inertia-gravity waves and accumulated precipitation showed there was a mutual promotion process between them. The Richardson number and Scorer parameter were used to demonstrate that the eastward-moving inertia-gravity waves were trapped in an effective atmospheric ducting zone with favorable reflector and critical level conditions, which were the primary causes of the long lives of the waves. Finally, numerical experiments to test the sensitivity to terrain and diabatic heating were conducted, and the results suggested a cooperative effect of terrain and diabatic heating contributed to the propagation and enhancement of the waves.

Analysis and Simulation of the Stratospheric Quasi-zero Wind Layer over Korla, Xinjiang Province, China

The stratospheric quasi-zero wind layer (QZWL) is a transition region with low zonal wind speeds in the lower stratosphere at an altitude of ~20 km. The zonal wind direction above the QZWL layer is opposite to that below the QZWL layer and the north –south wind component is small. The atmospheric wind field near the stratospheric QZWL is an important factor affecting the flight altitude and dynamic control of stratospheric airships. It is therefore necessary to study the stratospheric QZWL to provide better environmental information for these aircraft. High-resolution radiosonde data were used to analyze the characteristics of the stratospheric QZWL over Korla, Xinjiang Province, China. A weak wind layer in which the wind direction suddenly reversed from westerly to easterly was observed at ~20 km in the lower stratosphere, characteristic of the stratospheric QZWL. The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the profiles of the horizontal wind speed and direction over Korla. The forcing effect of each diagnostic term in the equation on the zonal wind speed was analyzed. The results showed that the advection term was the dominant factor forcing the zonal wind speed. The wave term had a secondary forcing role, although the forcing effect of the wave term on the zonal wind speed was significant in some regions.

On the Mechanism of a Terrain-Influenced Snow Burst Event during Midwinter in Northeast China

Short-duration snow bursts with heavy snow represent one type of hazardous weather in winter which can be easily missed by the winter weather warnings but often results in great hazards.In this paper,the mechanism for the occurrence of such events was investigated with the aid of a localized terrain-influenced snow burst event in Northeast China.The snow burst was produced by an eastward-moving cold-frontal snowband which encountered the downstream complex terrain of the Changbai Mountains and intensified.To ascertain the role of orography on the snow burst,numerical experiments,together with a parallel sensitivity experiment removing Changbai Mountains,were performed to attempt to distinguish the contributions of cold-frontal system and orographic effects to produce the heavy snow.Diagnosis showed that without the influence of Changbai Mountains,the release of conditional instability(CI)and inertial instability(II)within a weak frontogenetical environment was responsible for the snowband maintenance.Orographic effects played important roles in enhancing the snowband and increasing the snowfall intensities.The enhancement mechanism was related to the interactions of the cold-frontal snowband and the topography.On the one hand,orographic frontogenesis and persistent ascent,created by orographic gravity waves over the terrain,greatly enhanced the orographic lifting.The intensification of the lifting promoted the release of CI and thus enhanced the snowfall.On the other hand,pre-existing orographic instabilities were released due to the passing of the cold-frontal snowband,which could also serve to intensify the snowband over terrain and thus increase the snowfall.

A Three-dimensional Wave Activity Flux of Inertia–Gravity Waves and Its Application to a Rainstorm Event

A three-dimensional transformed Eulerian-mean(3D TEM) equation under a non-hydrostatic and non-geostrophic assumption is deduced in this study. The vertical component of the 3D wave activity flux deduced here is the primary difference from previous studies, which is suitable to mesoscale systems. Using the 3D TEM equation, the energy propagation of the inertia–gravity waves and how the generation and dissipation of the inertia–gravity waves drive the mean flow can be examined. During the mature stage of a heavy precipitation event, the maximum of the Eliassen–Palm(EP) flux divergence is primarily concentrated at the height of 10–14 km, where the energy of the inertia–gravity waves propagates forward(eastward) and upward. Examining the contribution of each term of the 3D TEM equation shows that the EP flux divergence is the primary contributor to the mean flow tendency. The EP flux divergence decelerates the zonal wind above and below the high-level jet at the height of 10 km and 15 km, and accelerates the high-level jet at the height of 12–14 km. This structure enhances the vertical wind shear of the environment and promotes the development of the rainstorm.

A multi-location joint field observation of the stratosphere and troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau

The unique geographical location and high altitude of the Tibetan Plateau can greatly influence regional weather and climate.In particular, the Asian summer monsoon(ASM) anticyclone circulation system over the Tibetan Plateau is recognized to be a significant transport pathway for water vapor and pollutants to enter the stratosphere. To improve understanding of these physical processes, a multi-location joint atmospheric experiment was performed over the Tibetan Plateau from late July to August in 2018, funded by the fiveyear(2018–2022) STEAM(stratosphere and troposphere exchange experiment during ASM) project, during which multiple platforms/instruments—including long-duration stratospheric balloons, dropsondes, unmanned aerial vehicles, special sounding systems, and ground-based and satellite-borne instruments—will be deployed. These complementary methods of data acquisition are expected to provide comprehensive atmospheric parameters(aerosol, ozone, water vapor, CO_2, CH_4, CO, temperature, pressure,turbulence, radiation, lightning and wind); the richness of this approach is expected to advance our comprehension of key mechanisms associated with thermal, dynamical, radiative, and chemical transports over the Tibetan Plateau during ASM activity.

Potential Deformation and Its Application to the Diagnosis of Heavy Precipitation in Mesoscale Convective Systems

Many observational studies have shown that deformation, like vertical vorticity and divergence, is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation. In this paper, to involve deformation in precipitation diagnosis, a new parameter called potential deformation（PD） is derived and then applied to precipitation detection within a simulated mesoscale convective system（MCS）. It is shown that PD includes both stretching deformation and shearing deformation and shares similar characteristics with deformation insofar as it does not change with the rotating coordinate. Diagnosis of the simulated MCS reveals that PD performs well in tracing the MCS＇ precipitation. In terms of their distributional pattern, the large-value areas of PD are similar to the precipitation in the different development stages of the MCS. A detailed analysis of the physical processes contained within the PD shows that it can reflect the three-dimensional moisture variation,vertical wind shear and wind deformation within the MCS. These structures are usually a comprehensive reflection of the characteristics of the surface cold pool, rear inflow jet, downward cold air flow and upward warm moist flow within the precipitating convective cells. For this reason, the PD shows much stronger anomalies in the precipitating atmosphere than the non-precipitating atmosphere, which implies considerable potential for its application in detecting heavy precipitation within MCSs.

Diagnosis of the Forcing of Inertial-gravity Waves in a Severe Convection System

The non-hydrostatic wave equation set in Cartesian coordinates is rearranged to gain insight into wave generation in a mesoscale severe convection system. The wave equation is characterized by a wave operator on the lhs, and forcing involving three terms—linear and nonlinear terms, and diabatic heating—on the rhs. The equation was applied to a case of severe convection that occurred in East China. The calculation with simulation data showed that the diabatic forcing and linear and nonlinear forcing presented large magnitude at different altitudes in the severe convection region. Further analysis revealed the diabatic forcing due to condensational latent heating had an important influence on the generation of gravity waves in the middle and lower levels. The linear forcing resulting from the Laplacian of potential-temperature linear forcing was dominant in the middle and upper levels. The nonlinear forcing was determined by the Laplacian of potential-temperature nonlinear forcing. Therefore, the forcing of gravity waves was closely associated with the thermodynamic processes in the severe convection case. The reason may be that, besides the vertical component of pressure gradient force, the vertical oscillation of atmospheric particles was dominated by the buoyancy for inertial gravity waves. The latent heating and potential-temperature linear and nonlinear forcing played an important role in the buoyancy tendency. Consequently, these thermodynamic elements influenced the evolution of inertial-gravity waves.

Evolution of Instability before and during a Torrential Rainstorm in North China

NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were used to analyze the characteristics and evolution mechanism of convective and symmetric instability before and during a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012.Approximately twelve hours before the rainstorm,the atmosphere was mainly dominated by convective instability in the lower level of 900-800 hPa.The strong southwesterly low-level jet conveyed the moist and warm airflow continuously to the area of torrential rain,maintaining and enhancing the unstable energy.When the precipitation occurred,unstable energy was released and the convective instability weakened.Meanwhile,due to the baroclinicity enhancement in the atmosphere,the symmetric instability strengthened,maintaining and promoting the subsequent torrential rain.Deriving the convective instability tendency equation demonstrated that the barotropic component of potential divergence and the advection term played a major role in enhancing the convective instability before the rainstorm.Analysis of the tendency equation of moist potential vorticity showed that the coupled term of vertical vorticity and the baroclinic component of potential divergence was the primary factor influencing the development of symmetric instability during the precipitation.Comparing the effects of these factors on convective instability and symmetric instability showed some correlation.

Response of a westerly-trough rainfall episode to multi-scale topographic control in southwestern China

中国西南部地形复杂,降水频发,地形对降水的影响至关重要.本文基于观测和数值模拟,定量揭示了青藏高原,横断山脉和四川盆地多尺度地形对该地区西风槽降水的影响.发现横断山脉是影响槽东南伸展,降水传播的关键地形要素,而四川盆地可加速西风槽东移,改变槽线倾斜方向,进而改变降水的位置和方向.对于极端降水事件,移除横断山脉屏障后,降水覆盖率约增加3倍(从1.8%增至7.2%),小时面雨量增强4倍.这些研究,可为地形复杂地区降水的未来预报决策和有效模式改进提供参考.

Impacts of changes in land cover and topography on a heavy precipitation event in Central Asia

本研究利用数值试验方法,定量评估了地形效应和土地利用类型的变化对中亚降水事件的影响.考虑到可能的地表覆盖变化趋势,绿洲化,沙漠化和城市化可改变近地表湿热环境和边界层向上热通量,导致区域平均降水增加3.0%,减少5.3%和4.7%;相对而言,地形效应对降水的影响更为显著(1/2和1/4原始地形高度时,降水减少13.1%和24.9%),主要影响途径是风场和微物理过程(低空急流和云)的变化.以上研究结果对改善生态环境,加强防灾能力具有重要战略意义.

青藏高原东部暴雨的中尺度有效位能收支分析

针对2018年7月10-11日青藏高原东部一次暴雨过程,利用模式模拟资料分析了有效位能分布特征,成因及其对降水发展演变的影响.结果表明,有效位能主要分布在对流层低层4km以下和高层8-14km,高层有效位能和降水有更好的对应性西北冷平流和降水粒子下落的蒸发作用是低层有效位能高值中心的主要成因,而降水过程释放潜热带来的热力扰动叠加高原大地形造成的位温扰动是导致高层有效位能高值的主要原因.有效位能收支分析表明,有效位能的通量输送项以及与动能间的转换项是主要源汇项.低层有效位能的经向通量输送和动能向有效位能的转化补给了有效位能的耗散;高层有效位能向垂直动能转化增强垂直运动是促进降水发展演变的主要因素.高层有效位能与垂直运动之间的正反馈过程使得两者相关性较强;低层较长时间内均存在垂直动能向有效位能的转化,削弱了垂直运动,而西北冷平流使得低层有效位能有增强的趋势,因此二者相关性较弱.

An Experiment on the Prediction of the Surface Wind Speed in Chongli Based on the WRF Model:Evaluation and Calibration

In this study,the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to generate accurate near-surface wind speed forecasts at kilometer-to subkilometer-scale resolution along race tracks(RTs)in Chongli during the wintertime is evaluated.The performance of two postprocessing methods,including the decaying-averaging(DA)and analogy-based(AN)methods,is tested to calibrate the near-surface wind speed forecasts.It is found that great uncertainties exist in the model’s raw forecasts of the near-surface wind speed in Chongli.Improvement of the forecast accuracy due to refinement of the horizontal resolution from kilometer to subkilometer scale is limited and not systematic.The RT sites tend to have large bias and centered root mean square error(CRMSE)values and also exhibit notable underestimation of high-wind speeds,notable overestimation or underestimation of the near-surface wind speed at high altitudes,and notable underestimation during daytime.These problems are not resolved by increasing the horizontal resolution and are even exacerbated,which leads to great challenges in the accurate forecasting of the near-surface wind speed in the competition areas in Chongli.The application of postprocessing methods can greatly improve the forecast accuracy of near-surface wind speed.Both methods used in this study have comparable abilities in reducing the(positive or negative)bias,while the AN method is also capable of decreasing the random error reflected by CRMSE.In particular,the large biases for high-wind speeds,wind speeds at high-altitude stations,and wind speeds during the daytime at RT stations can be evidently reduced.

东北一次雪飑事件的触发机制研究

2017年1月26日,中国东北地区发生了一次短时强降雪过程.本文利用ECMWF再分析数据诊断该过程的可能触发机制.分析表明,该过程可分两个阶段:初生阶段降雪远离高地形,低层锋生和有利的辐散场配置激发上升运动释放不稳定;增强阶段雪带接近长白山,低层锋生,地形环流以及与低空急流有关的风切变共同释放锋前不稳定.本文进一步计算了包含广义位温的修正Q矢量方程.结果表明,锋生项对沿湿等熵线的负Q矢量散度贡献较大,而拟涡度项在暖区强风切变区域中比较显著,两项在激发上升运动中同等重要.

The Earth Summit Mission-2022:Successful ozone soundings contribute to source identification in the north Mt.Qomolangma region

As part of“The Earth Summit Mission-2022”during the second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)in April and May 2022,we conducted the ozone sounding experiment(an ozonesonde mated to a radiosonde)at Mt.Qomolangma Base Camp(MQBC;86.85°E,28.14°N;5200 m),a location at an extremely high altitude.A total of ten sounding profiles were obtained between April 30 and May 06,2022,of which seven profiles were above35 km in altitude,with a maximum detection altitude up to 39.0 km.This study presents the temporal variation and vertical distributions of atmospheric temperature,humidity,and ozone during the MQBC campaign.The averaged ozone concentration was high(68.3 ppbv)at the surface and then increased smoothly until peaking(~110 ppbv)in the middle troposphere(approximately 10 km),and afterward,the ozone concentration increased rapidly from the upper troposphere to a maximum of~10 ppmv at~30 km.The enhanced ozone concentration in the middle troposphere was associated with the blocking high pressure,and transport from the southern flank of the Himalayas occurred during the campaign period.The average total ozone column was 291.9±21.4 DU for the seven profiles exceeding 35km in altitude.The ozonesonde measurements were also compared with the vertical ozone profiles retrieved from the space-borne ozone products from the Microwave Limb Sounder(MLS)onboard the Aura satellite and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder(AIRS)onboard the Aqua satellite.

Characteristics for the sources and sinks of gravity waves in an orographic heavy snowfall event

The characteristics of the mesoscale gravity waves during a snowfall event on November 30,2018 over the Ili Valley and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are analyzed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation.The vertical distribution of Ro is similar to that of the residual of the nonlinear balance equation(△NBE),with their high-value areas located over the leeward slope and the fluctuations extending upwardly with time,indicating the characteristics of strong ageostrophy and non-equilibrium of atmospheric motions.In addition,the Ro and(△NBE)are first developed in the lower layers over the leeward slope,revealing that the generation of the gravity waves is closely related to the topography.Thus,the topographic uplifting greatly affects this snowfall,and the ageostrophic motion in the whole troposphere and the lower stratosphere,as well as the unbalanced motions between convergence and divergence over the peak and the leeward slope are conductive to the development of the inertia-gravity waves.In terms of the horizontal scale of the gravity waves,the Barnes’bandpass filter is applied to separate the mesoscale waves and the synoptic-scale basic flow.The vertical distributions of the vorticity and divergence perturbations have a phase difference ofπ/2,indicating the polarization state of gravity waves.The analyses on the sources and sinks of gravity waves by the non-hydrostatic wave equation show that the main forcing term for orographic gravity waves is the second-order nonlinear term,whose magnitude mainly depends on the nonlinear thermal forcing.This term is mainly related to the vertical transport of potential temperature perturbations.During the snowfall,the potential temperature perturbations are mainly caused by the topographic relief and the release of condensation latent heat.Therefore,the gravity waves in this snowfall are caused by the topographic forcing and condensation latent heating.

Historical Changes and Future Projections of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

Based on multiresource high-resolution in situ and satellite merged observations along with model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX),this study first investigated historical changes in extreme temperature and precipitation during the period of 1979-2018 in areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and then projected the future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation under the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.This paper is expected to enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in the extreme temperature and precipitation along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and to provide scientific basis to advance the Sichuan-Tibet Railway construction and operation.The results show that temperatures in the Sichuan-Tibet region display a noticeable warming trend in the past 40 years,and the increase of minimum temperature is significantly higher than that of maximum temperature in the northwest of the region.Significant increase of precipitation is found mainly over the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau.Except for Lhasa and its surrounding areas,precipitation over other areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway shows no significant change in the past 40 years,as indicated in five datasets;however,precipitation along the railway has shown a remarkable decrease in the past 20 years in the TRMM satellite dataset.The warm days and nights have clearly increased by 6 and 5 day decade1-for 1979-2019,while cold days and nights have markedly decreased by about 6.6 and 3.6 day decade-1,respectively.In the past 20 years,the areas with increased precipitation from very wet days and extremely wet days are mainly distributed to the north of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,while in the areas along the railway itself,the very wet days and extremely wet days are decreasing.Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5,the temperature in the Sichuan-Tibet region will increase significantly,and the frequency of extreme high(low)temperature events in the late 21 st century(2070-2099)will greatly increase(decrease)by about 50%-80%(10%)compared with occurrences in the late 20 th century(1970-1999).Meanwhile,the frequency of very wet days and extremely wet days in the Sichuan-Tibet region will increase by about 2%-19% and 2%-5%,respectively,and the areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway will be affected by more extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation events.