The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit an...The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.展开更多
面对日益严峻的能源短缺和环境恶化问题,氢能作为绿色、高效且具有可持续性的柔性二次能源被广泛关注和研究。借鉴欧洲的电转气技术(power to gas),将可再生能源电解制成氢气后,以一定比例掺入到天然气管网中供给居民使用,被认为是改善...面对日益严峻的能源短缺和环境恶化问题,氢能作为绿色、高效且具有可持续性的柔性二次能源被广泛关注和研究。借鉴欧洲的电转气技术(power to gas),将可再生能源电解制成氢气后,以一定比例掺入到天然气管网中供给居民使用,被认为是改善城镇燃气质量与烟气排放的有效途径之一。因此,基于互换性理论分析了掺氢天然气作为家用燃气具燃料的掺氢比例,并基于12T基准天然气测试与验证了掺氢天然气在家用燃气具上燃烧的安全性能与排放性能。研究结果表明:①掺氢比例体积分数不应高于20%;②掺氢天然气在家用燃气具中燃烧的点火率、火焰稳定性与烟气排放性能全部合格,未发现安全性问题;③家用燃气具的烟气排放指标满足标准要求,并且随着氢气的体积分数增加,烟气中CO与NO_x排放量有所降低。展开更多
基金funded by the Chongqing Social Sciences Planning Project (2023NDQN22)the Social Sciences and Philosophy Project of the Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (23SKGH097)the Youth Program of Science and Technology Research of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (KJQN202300545)。
文摘The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.
文摘面对日益严峻的能源短缺和环境恶化问题,氢能作为绿色、高效且具有可持续性的柔性二次能源被广泛关注和研究。借鉴欧洲的电转气技术(power to gas),将可再生能源电解制成氢气后,以一定比例掺入到天然气管网中供给居民使用,被认为是改善城镇燃气质量与烟气排放的有效途径之一。因此,基于互换性理论分析了掺氢天然气作为家用燃气具燃料的掺氢比例,并基于12T基准天然气测试与验证了掺氢天然气在家用燃气具上燃烧的安全性能与排放性能。研究结果表明:①掺氢比例体积分数不应高于20%;②掺氢天然气在家用燃气具中燃烧的点火率、火焰稳定性与烟气排放性能全部合格,未发现安全性问题;③家用燃气具的烟气排放指标满足标准要求,并且随着氢气的体积分数增加,烟气中CO与NO_x排放量有所降低。
