Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia

Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin （CRB）, a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT）. The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961-1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models （GCMs） in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under three radiative forcing scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5）. In this study, the period 1966-1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identi- fied in the average annual runoff in glacier （-26.6% to -1.0%）, snow （-21.4% to ＋1.1%） and streamflow （-27.7% to -6.6%） for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection.

高应力条件下尾矿破碎特性及坝体稳定性研究

高应力条件下尾矿破碎特性与坝体稳定性研究是高尾矿坝避免溃坝事故的重要参考。分析尾矿颗粒破碎过程中级配曲线的演化规律,提出采用BET测试颗粒比表面积以定量化表征颗粒破碎指标;在室内高应力三轴试验的基础上,阐述高应力条件下尾矿的力学行为,提出高应力条件下尾矿强度准则,并基于该准则对工程实例进行应用分析。结果表明:相比于常用破碎指标,从能量观点出发的BET法比表面积表征尾矿颗粒破碎更为合理;采用线性Mohr-Coulomb准则计算尾矿在低应力阶段的内摩擦角,采用幂函数Mohr强度准则计算尾矿在高应力阶段的内摩擦角;提出1套考虑高应力条件下尾矿强度折减的坝体稳定性分析方法,以供实际工程参考。

西北现代生态灌区建设理论与技术保障体系构建

灌区是我国粮食安全和现代农业发展的基础保障,同时也是区域经济发展和生态环境保护的重要基石。然而西北地区独特的气候、地貌及社会经济状况导致了灌区生产能力和生态服务功能难以满足现代生态农业发展的需求。通过系统分析西北灌溉农业发展中面临的水资源过度开发、土壤盐碱化严重、生态环境功能低下等方面的问题,阐述了西北现代生态灌区的内涵与特征,并基于农业生产“功能水分”来源,将西北灌区划分成了灌溉依赖型灌区、灌溉主导型灌区、灌溉补充型灌区和灌溉提质型灌区4类。以灌区农业生产系统、物能输配系统、生态环境系统为建设对象,提出了灌区生态服务功能优化配置、灌区农田物能调控和灌区生态系统安全评估三大核心理论,构建了灌区系统控污与景观价值提升技术、灌排系统管控技术、作物生境要素综合调控技术三大关键技术,从而形成了西北现代生态灌区理论与技术保障体系,为我国西北灌溉农业高质量可持续发展提供理论与技术指导。

西北旱区农业高质量发展体系的生态农业内涵与路径

西北旱区自然条件恶劣,水土资源不匹配,农业发展受到诸多障碍。为探索一条突破环境制约,且资源集约高效利用的现代农业发展道路,该文系统分析了国内外农业发展沿革与趋势,明晰了西北旱区农业发展面临的问题与挑战,构建了针对西北旱区的生态农业发展理论框架,提出了西北旱区多业态生态农业结构与提质增效途径。研究发现,生态农业是通过现代科学技术与生态工程原理,形成产供销全链条绿色循环且生态功能持续提升的一种农业体系。生态农业应具备农业资源集约化、生产过程生态化、农业经营产业化、农业管理智能化、农业功能多元化五大基本特征。该文构建了以高效益、高效率、高品质、高素质为目标的生态农业高质量发展体系,提出了集优质棉业、精品果业、优质粮草、生态养殖、特色小镇、地理产品为一体的西北旱区多业态生态农业结构,阐明了以节水控盐协同模式、生境智能管控模式、“园机”一体化模式、循环经济发展模式、城乡统筹发展模式、“三产”一体化模式为核心的西北旱区生态农业提质增效技术体系,明确了以农业高效用水和生态功能提升为核心的关键途径。同时实践经验显示,绿色可持续的生态农业发展理念对促进区域经济水平与生态环境建设效果显著,如陕西眉县绿色林果业品牌入选中欧地理标志产品名单、综合产值达58.5亿元,甘肃广河县和宁夏青铜峡市畜禽粪污资源化率超90%,新疆生产建设兵团七十七团通过秸秆资源化技术单产增加8%、土壤有机质达21.2%,内蒙古科尔沁旗通过优质牧草种植、良种培育的生态畜牧业实现了规模生产与草场保护的双赢。