2019年4~6月云南持续性高温天气的大气环流异常成因

2019年4~6月云南省发生了历史罕见的持续性极端高温天气,并引发了严重气象干旱。本文利用1961~2019年逐日温度和大气再分析等资料以及CESM-LE计划(Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project)模式模拟结果,分析了历史同期云南极端高温天气发生的环流特征,探讨了2019年云南破纪录持续性高温的成因。历史极端高温日的合成分析表明,云南地区对流层上层显著异常反气旋伴随的强下沉异常和到达地表太阳辐射增加,是引发该区域极端高温天气的主要成因。该异常反气旋的形成主要源自北大西洋经东欧平原、西西伯利亚平原向东亚传播的高纬度罗斯贝波和经北非、黑海、伊朗高原向东亚传播的中纬度罗斯贝波之间的相互作用。2019年极端高温的强度和与之相应异常反气旋出现自1961年以来的最强。外强迫导致的增暖对2019年极端暖异常强度的贡献约为37.51%,同时对类似2019年以及更强极端暖事件发生概率的贡献为56.32%,内部变率对该事件也具有重要贡献。2019年4~6月北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)和ENSO事件分别处于历史极端负位相和暖位相。一方面,在AO强负位相影响下,极地上空深厚的位势高度正异常向南伸至东欧平原,有利于高纬度波列和云南上空的反气旋异常增强。另一方面,ENSO事件暖位相加强了西北太平洋异常反气旋环流,令西北太平洋副热带高压增强西伸至我国内陆地区,维持了云南上空反气旋异常。两者的共同作用,造成了2019年4~6月云南上空持续的深厚异常反气旋,云南地区继而出现持续性极端高温事件。

Precipitation Changes in Wet and Dry Seasons over the 20th Century Simulated by Two Versions of the FGOALS Model

Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System （FGOALS） model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65-0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet sea- sons get wetter and the annual range （precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons） increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.

Changes of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation simulated by two versions of FGOALS model

Here we assessed the performances of IAP/LASG climate system model FGOALS-g2 and FGOAS-s2 in the simulation of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation(WC). Both models reasonably reproduce the climatological spatial distribution features of the tropical Pacific WC. We also investigated the changes of WC simulated by two versions of FGOALS model and discussed the mechanism responsible for WC changes. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure(SLP) reveals a reduction of WC during 1900–2004 and 1950–2004, and an enhancement of WC during 1982–2004. During the three different time spans, the WC in FGOALS-g2 shows a weakening trend. In FGOALS-s2, tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation shows no significant change over the past century, but the WC strengthens during 1950–2004 and 1982–2004. The simulated bias of the WC change may be related to the phase of the multi-decadal mode in coupled models, which is not in sync with that in the observations. The change of WC is explained by the hydrological cycle constraints that precipitation must be balanced with the moisture transporting from the atmospheric boundary layer to the free troposphere. In FGOALS-g2, the increasing amplitude of the relative variability of precipitation(?P/P) is smaller(larger) than the relative variability of moisture(?q/q) over the tropical western(eastern) Pacific over the three time spans, and thus leads to a weakened WC. In FGOALS-s2, the convective mass exchange fluxes increase(decrease) over the tropical western(eastern) Pacific over the past 53 a(1950–2004) and the last 23 a(1982– 2004), and thus leads to a strengthened WC. The distributions of sea surface temperature(SST) trends dominate the change of WC. Over the past 55 a and 23 a, tropical Pacific SST shows an El Ni?o-like(a La Ni?a-like) trend pattern in FGOALS-g2(FGOALS-s2), which drives the weakening(strengthening) of WC. Therefore, a successful simulation of the tropical Pacific SST change pattern is necessary for a reasonable simulation of WC change in climate system models. This idea is further supported by the diagnosis of historical sea surface temperature driven AGCM-simulations.