An MW6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido,Japan on September 6th,2018.Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution(3 m)planet satellite,we manually inte...An MW6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido,Japan on September 6th,2018.Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution(3 m)planet satellite,we manually interpret 9293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide,such as elevation,slope,slope direction,road distance,flow distance,peak ground acceleration(PGA)and lithology.Then,9293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3.In detail,the training sample has 6505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2788 landslide points.The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades,including very low risk area,low risk area,moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area.The results show that there are 7576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area,accounting for81.52%of the total landslide number,and the landslide area is 22.93 km^2,accounting for 74.35%of the total area.The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation.The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number.The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50%and the prediction rate is 78.43%.The evaluation results are satisfactory,indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.展开更多
随着“双碳”目标的提出,多能源交互和新能源消纳的区域综合能源系统(region integrated energy system,RIES)成为研究热点。为兼顾RIES中各主体利益,文中提出一种考虑风光不确定和碳交易的RIES双层博弈优化运行策略。首先,基于多智能...随着“双碳”目标的提出,多能源交互和新能源消纳的区域综合能源系统(region integrated energy system,RIES)成为研究热点。为兼顾RIES中各主体利益,文中提出一种考虑风光不确定和碳交易的RIES双层博弈优化运行策略。首先,基于多智能体技术,建立以能源销售代理商(energy sales agent,ESA)、能源运营代理商(energy operation agent,EOA)和用户代理商(energy use agent,EUA)为主体的双层多智能体系统模型;其次,针对风光出力不确定性,采用蒙特卡洛法进行随机场景生成并通过k-means聚类和同步回代消除技术进行场景削减;然后,在考虑源侧各主体运行收益、碳交易成本以及负荷侧综合需求响应基础上,搭建纵向Stackelberg博弈嵌套横向EOA非合作博弈竞价的双层博弈框架并证明Nash均衡;最后,利用改进双变异差分进化算法结合YALMIP工具箱和商业软件CPLEX在MATLAB中进行仿真分析,算例结果表明所提优化策略可有效实现各主体利益提升的同时减少弃风光率和碳排放量。展开更多
基金supported by the BasicScientific Fund of the Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(IGCEA1604)。
文摘An MW6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido,Japan on September 6th,2018.Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution(3 m)planet satellite,we manually interpret 9293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide,such as elevation,slope,slope direction,road distance,flow distance,peak ground acceleration(PGA)and lithology.Then,9293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3.In detail,the training sample has 6505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2788 landslide points.The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades,including very low risk area,low risk area,moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area.The results show that there are 7576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area,accounting for81.52%of the total landslide number,and the landslide area is 22.93 km^2,accounting for 74.35%of the total area.The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation.The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number.The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50%and the prediction rate is 78.43%.The evaluation results are satisfactory,indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.
文摘随着“双碳”目标的提出,多能源交互和新能源消纳的区域综合能源系统(region integrated energy system,RIES)成为研究热点。为兼顾RIES中各主体利益,文中提出一种考虑风光不确定和碳交易的RIES双层博弈优化运行策略。首先,基于多智能体技术,建立以能源销售代理商(energy sales agent,ESA)、能源运营代理商(energy operation agent,EOA)和用户代理商(energy use agent,EUA)为主体的双层多智能体系统模型;其次,针对风光出力不确定性,采用蒙特卡洛法进行随机场景生成并通过k-means聚类和同步回代消除技术进行场景削减;然后,在考虑源侧各主体运行收益、碳交易成本以及负荷侧综合需求响应基础上,搭建纵向Stackelberg博弈嵌套横向EOA非合作博弈竞价的双层博弈框架并证明Nash均衡;最后,利用改进双变异差分进化算法结合YALMIP工具箱和商业软件CPLEX在MATLAB中进行仿真分析,算例结果表明所提优化策略可有效实现各主体利益提升的同时减少弃风光率和碳排放量。
