Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)experiments.Two cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on growth.The perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF case.The vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case dependence.Furthermore,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source perturbations.For the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive interactions.In the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

Improved Weather Radar Echo Extrapolation Through Wind Speed Data Fusion Using a New Spatiotemporal Neural Network Model

Weather radar echo extrapolation plays a crucial role in weather forecasting.However,traditional weather radar echo extrapolation methods are not very accurate and do not make full use of historical data.Deep learning algorithms based on Recurrent Neural Networks also have the problem of accumulating errors.Moreover,it is difficult to obtain higher accuracy by relying on a single historical radar echo observation.Therefore,in this study,we constructed the Fusion GRU module,which leverages a cascade structure to effectively combine radar echo data and mean wind data.We also designed the Top Connection so that the model can capture the global spatial relationship to construct constraints on the predictions.Based on the Jiangsu Province dataset,we compared some models.The results show that our proposed model,Cascade Fusion Spatiotemporal Network(CFSN),improved the critical success index(CSI)by 10.7%over the baseline at the threshold of 30 dBZ.Ablation experiments further validated the effectiveness of our model.Similarly,the CSI of the complete CFSN was 0.004 higher than the suboptimal solution without the cross-attention module at the threshold of 30 dBZ.

Ideal Case Study of Adaptive Localization in Storm-scale Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation

This study explores the use of the hierarchical ensemble filter to determine the localized influence of observations in the Weather Research and Forecasting ensemble square root filtering(WRF-EnSRF)assimilation system.With error correlations between observations and background field state variables considered,the adaptive localization approach is applied to conduct a series of ideal storm-scale data assimilation experiments using simulated Doppler radar data.Comparisons between adaptive and empirical localization methods are made,and the feasibility of adaptive localization for storm-scale ensemble Kalman filter assimilation is demonstrated.Unlike empirical localization,which relies on prior knowledge of distance between observations and background field,the hierarchical ensemble filter provides continuously updating localization influence weights adaptively.The adaptive scheme improves assimilation quality during rapid storm development and enhances assimilation of reflectivity observations.The characteristics of both the observation type and the storm development stage should be considered when identifying the most appropriate localization method.Ultimately,combining empirical and adaptive methods can optimize assimilation quality.

中尺度对流系统的动热力特征及其演变对风垂直切变的响应

为探究环境风切变在对流系统发生发展与维持过程中的重要性,利用2009年6月5日20时(北京时)上海宝山站的探空资料生成理想试验初始场,设计了包含改变整层、中层和低层风切变在内的多组试验,对比分析各试验系统的动热力结构特征及其演变发现:(1)整层环境风切变的改变对中尺度对流系统的影响最显著,其次是中层风切变。增大整层风切变时,对流系统强度及组织性最强,生命史增长。减小整层风切变时,系统强度最弱且组织结构易发散。(2)风切变增加,水平涡度增大,其受垂直运动影响转化为垂直涡度,涡旋对与垂直运动间相互作用形成的正反馈过程是系统强度增强并可以长时间维持线状结构的重要原因。(3)风切变减小,对流系统移动速度远小于阵风锋,阵风锋移至系统前方,阻断系统前沿上升气流必需的暖输送。阵风锋后冷而稳定的环境令系统逐渐消散。

0-10 KM TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES RETRIEVAL FROM GROUND-BASED MICROWAVE RADIOMETER

Deviation exists between measured and simulated microwave radiometer sounding data. The bias results in low-accuracy atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles simulated by Back Propagation artificial neural network models. This paper evaluated a retrieving atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles method by adopting an input data adjustment-based Back Propagation artificial neural networks model. First, the sounding data acquired at a Nanjing meteorological site in June 2014 were inputted into the Mono RTM Radiative transfer model to simulate atmospheric downwelling radiance at the 22 spectral channels from 22.234 GHz to 58.8 GHz, and we performed a comparison and analysis of the real observed data; an adjustment model for the measured microwave radiometer sounding data was built. Second, we simulated the sounding data of the 22 channels using the sounding data acquired at the site from 2011 to 2013. Based on the simulated rightness temperature data and the sounding data, BP neural network-based models were trained for the retrieval of atmospheric temperature, water vapor density and relative humidity profiles. Finally, we applied the adjustment model to the microwave radiometer sounding data collected in July 2014, generating the corrected data. After that, we inputted the corrected data into the BP neural network regression model to predict the atmospheric temperature, vapor density and relative humidity profile at 58 high levels from 0 to 10 km. We evaluated our model's effect by comparing its output with the real measured data and the microwave radiometer's own second-level product. The experiments showed that the inversion model improves atmospheric temperature and humidity profile retrieval accuracy; the atmospheric temperature RMS error is between 1 K and 2.0 K; the water vapor density's RMS error is between 0.2 g/m^3 and 1.93 g/m3; and the relative humidity's RMS error is between 2.5% and 18.6%.

Comparisons of Two Cloud-Detection Schemes for Infrared Radiance Observations

The cloud-detection procedure developed by McNally and Watts(MW03) was added to the Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation System. To provide some guidelines for setting up cloud-detection schemes, this study compares the MW03 scheme to the Multivariate and Minimum Residual(MMR) scheme for both simulated and real Advanced Infrared Sounder(AIRS) radiances. Results show that there is a high level of consistency between the results from simulated and real AIRS data. As expected, both cloud-detection schemes perform well in finding the cloud-contaminated channels based on the channels' peak levels. The clouddetection results from MW03 are sensitive to the prescribed brightness temperature innovation threshold and brightness temperature gradient threshold. When increasing the brightness temperature innovation threshold for MW03 to roughly eight times the default threshold, the two cloud-detection schemes produce consistent data rejection distributions overall for high channels. MMR generally retains more data for long-wave channels. For both cloud-detection schemes, there is a high level of consistency between the cloud-free pixels and the visible/near-IR(Vis/NIR) cloud mask.