Prediction model of moisture content of dead fine fuel in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain,Northeast China

Preventing and suppressing forest fires is one of the main tasks of forestry agencies to reduce resource loss and requires a thorough understanding of the importance of factors affecting their occurrence.This study was carried out in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain in order to develop models for predicting the moisture content of dead fine fuel using meteorological and soil variables.Models by Nelson(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)and Van Wagner and Pickett(Can For Service 33,1985)describing the equilibrium moisture content as a function of relative humidity and temperature were evaluated.A random forest and generalized additive models were built to select the most important meteorological variables affecting fuel moisture content.Nelson’s(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)model was accurate for Pinus koraiensis,Pinus sylvestris,Larix gmelinii and mixed Larix gmelinii—Ulmus propinqua fuels.The random forest model showed that temperature and relative humidity were the most important factors affecting fuel moisture content.The generalized additive regression model showed that temperature,relative humidity and rain were the main drivers affecting fuel moisture content.In addition to the combined effects of temperature,rainfall and relative humidity,solar radiation or wind speed were also significant on some sites.In P.koraiensis and P.sylvestris plantations,where soil parameters were measured,rain,soil moisture and temperature were the main factors of fuel moisture content.The accuracies of the random forest model and generalized additive model were similar,however,the random forest model was more accurate but underestimated the effect of rain on fuel moisture.

Moisture content thresholds for ignition and rate of fire spread for various dead fuels in northeast forest ecosystems of China

Fuel moisture content is one of the important factors that determine ignition probability and fire behaviour in forest ecosystems.In this study,ignition and fire spread moisture content thresholds of 40 dead fuel were performed in laboratory experiments,with a focus on the source of ignition and wind speed.Variability in fuel moisture content at time of ignition and during fire spread was observed for different fuels.Matches were more efficient to result in ignition and spread fire with high values of fuel moisture content compared to the use of cigarette butts.Some fuels did not ignite at 15%moisture content,whereas others ignited at 40%moisture content and fire spread at 38%moisture content in the case of matches,or ignited at 27%moisture content and spread fire at 25%moisture content using cigarette butts.A two-way ANOVA showed that both the source of ignition and the wind speed affected ignition and fire spread threshold significantly,but there was no interaction between these factors.The relationship between ignition and fire spread was strong,with R2=98%for cigarette butts,and 92%for matches.Further information is needed,especially on the density of fuels,fuel proportion(case of mixed fuels),fuel age,and fuel combustibility.