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Compliance with NPIs and possible deleterious effects on mitigation of an epidemic outbreak
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作者 maria vittoria barbarossa Jan Fuhrmann 《Infectious Disease Modelling》 2021年第1期859-874,共16页
The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus,which since the early day... The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus,which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic,NPIs aimed at reducing transmission-enabling contacts between individuals.The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures.Here,we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic. 展开更多
关键词 Non-pharmaceutical intervention Epidemic model COMPLIANCE Reproduction number COVID-19
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Deterministic approaches for head lice infestations and treatments
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作者 Noemi Castelletti maria vittoria barbarossa 《Infectious Disease Modelling》 2020年第1期386-404,共19页
Pediculus humanus capitis are human ectoparasites which cause infestations,mostly in children,worldwide.Understanding the life cycle of head lice is an important step in knowing how to treat lice infestations,as the p... Pediculus humanus capitis are human ectoparasites which cause infestations,mostly in children,worldwide.Understanding the life cycle of head lice is an important step in knowing how to treat lice infestations,as the parasite behavior depends considerably on its age and gender.In this work we propose a mathematical model for head lice population dynamics in hosts who could be or not quarantined and treated.Considering a lice population structured by age and gender we formulate the model as a system of hyperbolic PDEs,which can be reduced to compartmental systems of delay or ordinary differential equations.Besides studying fundamental properties of the model,such as existence,uniqueness and nonnegativity of solutions,we show the existence of(in certain cases multiple)equilibria at which the infestation persists on the host’s head.Aiming to assess the performance of treatments against head lice infestations,by mean of computer experiments and numerical simulations we investigate four possible treatment strategies.Our main results can be summarized as follows:(i)early detection is crucial for quick and efficient eradication of lice infestations;(ii)dimeticone-based products applied every 4 days effectively remove lice in at most three applications even in case of severe infestations and(iii)minimization of the reinfection risk,e.g.by mean of synchronized treatments in families/classrooms is recommended. 展开更多
关键词 Head lice Population dynamics Differential equations Structured populations Stability analysis Delay equations
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