This paper intends to develop suitable methods to provide likely scenarios in order to support decision making for slow dynamic processes such as the underlying of agribusiness. A new method to analyze the short- and ...This paper intends to develop suitable methods to provide likely scenarios in order to support decision making for slow dynamic processes such as the underlying of agribusiness. A new method to analyze the short- and long-term time series forecast and to model the behavior of the underlying process using nonlinear artificial neural networks (ANN) is presented. The algorithm can effectively forecast the time-series data by stochastic analysis (Monte Carlo) of its future behavior using fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The algorithm was used to forecast country risk time series for several countries, both for short term that is 30 days ahead and long term 350 days ahead scenarios.展开更多
In this paper, a practical analysis of stability by simulation for the effect of incorporating a Kalman estimator in the control loop of the inverted pendulum with a neurocontroller is presented. The neurocontroller i...In this paper, a practical analysis of stability by simulation for the effect of incorporating a Kalman estimator in the control loop of the inverted pendulum with a neurocontroller is presented. The neurocontroller is calculated by approximate optimal control, without considering the Kalman estimator in the loop following the Theorem of the separation. The results are compared with a time-varying linear controller, which in noiseless conditions in the state or in the measurement has an acceptable performance, but when it is under noise conditions its operation closes into a state space range more limited than the one proposed here.展开更多
文摘This paper intends to develop suitable methods to provide likely scenarios in order to support decision making for slow dynamic processes such as the underlying of agribusiness. A new method to analyze the short- and long-term time series forecast and to model the behavior of the underlying process using nonlinear artificial neural networks (ANN) is presented. The algorithm can effectively forecast the time-series data by stochastic analysis (Monte Carlo) of its future behavior using fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The algorithm was used to forecast country risk time series for several countries, both for short term that is 30 days ahead and long term 350 days ahead scenarios.
文摘In this paper, a practical analysis of stability by simulation for the effect of incorporating a Kalman estimator in the control loop of the inverted pendulum with a neurocontroller is presented. The neurocontroller is calculated by approximate optimal control, without considering the Kalman estimator in the loop following the Theorem of the separation. The results are compared with a time-varying linear controller, which in noiseless conditions in the state or in the measurement has an acceptable performance, but when it is under noise conditions its operation closes into a state space range more limited than the one proposed here.
