Assessing hydrological consequences of climate change at the catchment scale is recently among key problems in hydrology.This study focuses on the estimation of changes in the hydrological regime in the Fuglebekken ca...Assessing hydrological consequences of climate change at the catchment scale is recently among key problems in hydrology.This study focuses on the estimation of changes in the hydrological regime in the Fuglebekken catchment in SW Spitsbergen(Svalbard).For this purpose,50 rainfll-runoff models were calibrated using available hydrometeorological observations.The models were validated based on archival flow and SWE observations,and proxy data from time-lapse cameras.Six models(FLEX-IS,GSM-SOCONT,PRMS,HBV,Nordic HBV,and GR4J)with the best performance were applied to reconstruct the past hydrological conditions and analyse the trends in flow regime in the period 1979-2020.Statistically significant changes at 0.05 level in the flow regime indicators were detected,including the number of days with the active flow during the calendar year(10.8 d per decade),during the mid-May-November period(9.8 d per decade),the date of the first day with the flow(-4.7 d per decade),and the last day with the flow during mid-May-November(8.4 d per decade).A statistically significant increase in runoff was estimated for two periods from mid-May to the end of June and the second part of August till mid-November.The changes in the first period result from increases in air temperature and earlier snowmelt-driven floods.An estimated runoff increase in the second period corresponds to large increases in rainfall.The increase in air temperature,earlier disappearance of snow,and decrease in precipitation in July and the first part of August result in runoff reduction.The presented results show that the Fuglebekken‘catchment's hydrological regime has already changed.The magnitude of the changes is larger compared to catchments located in lower latitudes.展开更多
基金supported by the Polish National Science Centre(2017/27/B/ST10/01269 and 2020/38/E/ST10/00139)and partially by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education subsidy for the Institute of Geophysics,Polish Academy of Sciences.The hydrometeorological time series are summarised by Wawrzyniak et al.(2021),and access to the data is available in the PANGAEA repository(https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.921921).Archival meteorological time series is also available in the PANGAEA repository(https:/l doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.909042)with the data overview described by Wawrzyniak and Osuch(2020).
文摘Assessing hydrological consequences of climate change at the catchment scale is recently among key problems in hydrology.This study focuses on the estimation of changes in the hydrological regime in the Fuglebekken catchment in SW Spitsbergen(Svalbard).For this purpose,50 rainfll-runoff models were calibrated using available hydrometeorological observations.The models were validated based on archival flow and SWE observations,and proxy data from time-lapse cameras.Six models(FLEX-IS,GSM-SOCONT,PRMS,HBV,Nordic HBV,and GR4J)with the best performance were applied to reconstruct the past hydrological conditions and analyse the trends in flow regime in the period 1979-2020.Statistically significant changes at 0.05 level in the flow regime indicators were detected,including the number of days with the active flow during the calendar year(10.8 d per decade),during the mid-May-November period(9.8 d per decade),the date of the first day with the flow(-4.7 d per decade),and the last day with the flow during mid-May-November(8.4 d per decade).A statistically significant increase in runoff was estimated for two periods from mid-May to the end of June and the second part of August till mid-November.The changes in the first period result from increases in air temperature and earlier snowmelt-driven floods.An estimated runoff increase in the second period corresponds to large increases in rainfall.The increase in air temperature,earlier disappearance of snow,and decrease in precipitation in July and the first part of August result in runoff reduction.The presented results show that the Fuglebekken‘catchment's hydrological regime has already changed.The magnitude of the changes is larger compared to catchments located in lower latitudes.
