40 Years of Surface Warming in the Northern US Rocky Mountains: Implications for Snowpack Retreat

The northern US Rocky Mountains are experiencing rapid warming. Combined analysis of Ground Temperature (GT) measurements at two high-fidelity boreholes with Surface Air Temperature (SAT) measurements near Helena Montana spanning the past 40 years indicate the northern US Rockies have warmed on average 0.12°C - 0.32°C/decade since 1975, at least a factor of ~5 higher than the predicted 500-year-average. Warming appears to be accelerating, with warming rates since 2013 4 - 7 times higher than the 40 year average. Though uncertainty exists, the most significant GT warming appears to occur at higher elevation. Warming estimates are consistent with modelling predictions, snowpack observations, and stream temperature studies, all suggesting rapid surface temperature change in this region during the past ~40 years. The analysis indicates GT warming measured at remote borehole sites is slightly lower than regional SAT measurements collected near urban environments. We associate the discrepancy between GT/SAT measurements to both anthropogenic effects (urban development) that increase warming at the nearest SAT measurement station and a 14-year period of anomalously low snowfall that reduces surface insulation and GT warming. Using a derived average forty-year surface warming rate of 0.22°C/ decade and regional temperature-elevation trends, we calculate that the elevation of the winter freeze line during the three coldest months of the year (December, January, and February) in the northern US Rocky Mountains is retreating upward, on average, 33 m/decade. This implies a 21% reduction in freeze-line area since 1974. If this trend continues, we estimate that within the next 40 years (by 2060), the total area where ground freeze occurs during the three coldest months of the year will be ~60% of 1974 values. Since GT measurements indicate accelerated warming, this may be an underestimate. The analysis has important implications for the snowpack-water budget for Montana and the northern US Rocky Mountains.

Factors Contributing to the 2005-Present, Rapid Rise in Lake Levels, Dominican Republic and Haiti (Hispaniola)

Lakes Enriquillo and Azuei, the two largest lakes in Hispaniola and in the Caribbean, have risen 10 and 5 m respectively within the last 8 years. Higher lake levels have submerged towns, road systems, agricultural lands and utilities, and have threatened to submerge the major overland highway that connects the Dominican Republic and Haiti. In this study, we use CHIRP seismic data, satellite imagery, and regional meteorological data to quantify and assess controls on the recent lake level rises. Although data are limited, the analyses indicate that the lakes’ water level changes may be attributed to a combination of increased rainfall and natural or man-made changes to the hydraulic connectivity of the various water bodies within the drainage basin. We show that a weak correlation exists between changes in Lake Enriquillo’s and Azuei’s water levels and precipitation rates (0.2 and 0.08 respectively, 1984-2012) and that both lakes experience periods of anti-correlation where, for example, water level drops at Lake Azuei (~20 masl) coincide with water level rises at Lake Enriquillo (41 mbsl). From these observations, we propose that the lakes experience intermittent periods of hydraulic connectivity along reactivated or newly developed stratigraphic-controlled sub-surface transport pathways. We also note that moderately small earthquakes along the large active fault system that extends through both lakes may promote or limit hydraulic conductivity on decadal or shorter time scales. The extents to which recent earthquakes have triggered changes in groundwater flow at this site remain unclear but represent an important topic of future research.