The Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)Project in Central Asia:The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project

Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy.By its nature of intensive water use,agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change.Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region.Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack,which are the foundation of the region’s water resources,and a changing precipitation regime.Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,leading to transboundary water resource issues.Summer already has extremely high temperatures.Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing.The warming is expected to increase,but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios.Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type,amount,and distribution.Regional Hydroclimate Projects(RHPs)are an approach to studying these issues.Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues.It was followed up with an online workshop and then,in 2023,an in-person workshop,held in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)project for the region include both observations and modeling,as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations,all of which are topics for the next workshop.A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.

Human Health Cost of Air Pollution in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, like other former Soviet Republics, inherited a number of serious environmental problems. Air pollution is one of these serious problems, leading to significant environmental health effects on the population of Kazakhstan. This study provides a baseline analysis of health damages from air pollution, based on readily available information. Mean estimates of mortality risk attributable to air pollution are about 16,000 cases per year with a 95% confidence level of the risk not exceeding 25,500. Even taking into account all the uncertainties related to the collection and processing of primary data, as well as the application of risk analysis methodology, we conclude that air pollution in Kazakhstan constitutes a significant contribution to the environmental burden of diseases. In relative terms, the impact of air pollution on premature mortality in Kazakhstan is notably higher than in Russia and the Ukraine.

Risk Assessment Capacity Building Program in Zaporizhzhia Ukraine: Emissions Inventory Construction, Ambient Modeling, and Hazard Results

Historically, Ukraine has been a major source of industrial production for the former Soviet Union and the source of pollution associated with an aging industrial infrastructure. The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the Ukrainian Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MENR) entered into partnership to develop Ukrainian expertise and capacity in risk assessment so that Ukraine could more effectively use its National and Regional Environmental Protection Funds and set priorities for cleanup and regulation. Ukrainian scientists, local officials, and EPA consultants conducted a pilot study in the heavily industrialized Zaporizhzhia Oblast so that the process, analytical tools, and approach for a risk assessment could be developed for and tailored to Ukrainian needs. As a first step, site-specific information was obtained from multiple sources of air pollution and an emissions inventory of air pollution developed. Efforts by local officials were critical for emissions inventory construction. After refinements were made to the inventory, Ukrainian scientists then performed exposure modeling using this information so that ambient concentrations of pollutants could be estimated. 11 industry types (i.e., enterprises) were identified as a major emission source. Results of the modeling effort demonstrated that emissions estimates of particulate matter (as measured by particles of less than 10 micron diameter or “PM10”) and a number of carcinogens were consistent with those from other cities with high concentrations of metallurgical industries in former Soviet Union countries, and were above safety standards. Hazard information was gathered from international databases for each of the estimated pollutants. Using such data, prioritization and identification of potential health concerns can be made, but most importantly, the expertise and experience gained from the pilot allowed for continued support of risk assessment capacity building in the Ukraine and support by the World Bank.