Assessment of Impacts and Risks of Air Pollution Applying Two Strategies of Numerical Chemistry Transport Modelling

Assessment of harmful impacts and risks of air pollution in case of accidents as well as of long lasting exposition is an important challenge of chemical transport modeling. Sad confirmation of this statement unexpectedly has come from the nuclear power plant accident in Fukushima which occurred while this paper was finalized. Two strategies to comply with the task of impact and risk assessment in extended regions like Central Europe or the Balkans are described. The first one is characterized by application of a single model system to an extended domain. The other one is based on the combined application of several chemical transport models designed for the use in various sub-domains in the region under consideration. Advantages and disadvantages exist for both approaches. For instance, the single model strategy allows unified and harmonized assessment of risks in a larger region, whereas the combined model strategy may pro-vide faster and locally more specific response in emergency cases. The single model approach is treated exploiting applications of the EURAD model system. The combined model approach is a novel way of joint use of chemical transport model systems developed for the Balkans. The models are described and the accuracy of simulations carried out with them is briefly demonstrated by comparison of simulated and observed concentrations of air pollutants. Applications regarding the search of sources for high pollution events and the assessment of risks through known sources are exem-plarily discussed.

来源特异性颗粒物空气污染与高敏C-反应蛋白之间的相关性:局部交通和工业排放物

[背景]长期颗粒物空气污染（PM2.5和PM10）暴露和高交通负荷与全身性炎症标志物相关。流行病学调查主要集中于总PM,代表不同来源污染物的混合物。[目的]探讨来源特异的PM与高敏C-反应蛋白（hs-CRP,一种心血管疾病的独立预测因子）之间的相关性。[方法]采用Heinz Nixdorf回忆研究（Heinz Nixdorf Recall study）中第一次（2000—2003年）和第二次（2006—2008年）的检测数据。Heinz Nixdorf回忆研究是一项在德国进行的、以人群为基础的前瞻性队列研究,初始参加者为4 814人（45~75岁）。利用化学传输模型估计参加者的住宅局部交通和行业特异性细颗粒物（PM2.5）长期暴露的状况。使用线性混合模型,以参与者作为随机截距,来估计特定来源的PM与hs-CRP水平的自然对数变换值之间的关联,并设置年龄、性别、教育程度、体质指数、低和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇、吸烟变量、体力活动、季节、湿度和城市等因素的对照（总共8 204名观察对象）。[结果]总PM2.5每增加1μg/m3与血清hs-CRP浓度增加4.53%相关（95%CI：2.76%~6.33%）。交通和行业特异性的PM2.5增加1μg/m3分别与血清hs-CRP升高17.89%（95%CI：7.66%~29.09%）和7.96%（95%CI：3.45%~12.67%）相关。PM10具有相似的关联性。[结论]与总PM相比,长期局部交通特异性PM（PM2.5,PM10）暴露与全身性炎症反应的相关性更强。全身性炎症反应与局部行业特异性PM的关联比与总PM的关联稍强,但二者无显著性差异。