Using Copula functions to predict climatic change impacts on floods in river source regions

Flood frequency in river source regions is significantly affected by rainfall and snowmelt as part of climatic changes.A traditional univariate flood frequency analysis cannot reflect the complexity of floods,and when used in isolation,it can only underestimate flood risk.For effective flood prevention and mitigation,it is essential to consider the combined effects of precipitation and snowmelt.Copula functions can effectively quantify the joint distribution relationship between floods and their associated variables without restrictions on their distribution characteristics.This study uses copula functions to consider a multivariate probability distribution model of flood peak flow(Q)with cumulative snowmelt(CSm)and cumulative precipitation(CPr)for the Hutubi River basin located in northern Xinjiang,China.The joint frequencies of rainfall and snowmelt floods are predicted using copula models based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data.The results show that Q has a significant positive correlation with 24-d CSm(r=0.559,p=0.002)and 23-d CPr(r=0.965,p<0.05).Flood frequency will increase in the future,and mid-(2050e2074)and long-term(2075e2099)floods will be more severe than those in the near-term(2025e2049).The probability of flood occurrence is higher under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios than under SSP5-8.5.Precipitation during the historical period(1990e2014)led to extreme floods,and increasing future precipitation trends are found to be insignificant.Snowmelt increases with rising temperatures and occurs earlier than estimated,leading to an earlier flood period in the basin and more frequent snowmelt floods.The Q under the joint return period is larger than that during the same univariate return period.This difference indicates that neglecting the interaction between precipitation and snowmelt for floods leads to an underestimation of the flood risk(with underestimations ranging from 0.3%to 22%).The underestimations decrease with an increase in the return period.The joint risks of rainfall or snowmelt according to various flood periods should be considered for rivers with multi-source runoff recharge in flood control design.This study reveals the joint impact of precipitation and snowmelt on extreme floods under climate change in river source regions.This study also provides a scientific basis for regional flood prevention and mitigation strategies,as well as for the rational allocation of water resources.

Antibacterial activities of a novel Cu-bearing high-entropy alloy against multi-drug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii and Staphylococcus aureus

Acinetobacter baumannii and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA)are two prevalent pathogens and have developed high resistant to most antibiotics.Therefore,it is a pressing need to develop a new method to inhibit the spread of drug-resistant bacteria.Copper containing high-entropy alloy(HEA,Al0.4CoCr-CuFeNi)is a new kind of alloy material,which shows extensive antibacterial activity and mechanical properties in our previous research.This study further develops another HEA(CoCrCuFeNi)and evaluates its resistance against gram-negative A.baumannii and Gram-positive MRSA.The antibacterial tests show that the antibacterial rate of the HEA toward both bacteria reached nearly 99%,far better than the traditional copper-bearing 304 stainless steel(304 Cu-SS).The biofilm observation shows that the HEA could not only kill the planktonic bacteria,but also effectively inhibit the formation of biofilm.These data demonstrate that CoCrCuFeNi HEA possesses effective antibacterial and antibiofilm activities,making it a potential candidate for using in hospital,food industry,and domestic kitchens.

Interfacial Oxides Evolution of High-Speed Steel Joints by Hot-Compression Bonding

The interfacial oxidation behavior of Cr_(4)Mo_(4) V high-speed steel(HSS)joints undergoing hot-compression bonding was investigated by using optical microscopy(OM),scanning electron microscopy(SEM),and transmission electron microscopy(TEM).In the heating and holding processes,dispersed rod-like and granularδ-Al_(2)O_(3) oxides were formed at the interface and in the matrix near the interface due to the selective oxidation and internal oxidation of Al,while irregular Si-Al-O compounds and spheroidal SiO_(2) particles were formed at the interface.After the post-holding treatment,SiO_(2) oxides and Si-Al-O compounds were dissolved into the matrix,andδ-Al_(2)O_(3) oxides were transformed into nanoscaleα-Al_(2)O_(3) particles,which did not deteriorate the mechanical properties of the joints.The formation and migration of newly-formed grain boundaries by plastic deformation and post-holding treatment were the main mechanism for interface healing.The tensile test results showed that the strength of the healed joints was comparable to that of the base material,and the in-situ tensile observations proved that the fracture was initiated at the grain boundary of the matrix rather than at the interface.The clarification of interfacial oxides and microstructure is essential for the application of hot-compression bonding of HSSs.

Modeling motion and growth of multiple dendrites during solidification based on vector-valued phase field and two-phase flow models

Movement and growth of dendrites are common phenomena during solidification.To numerically investigate these phenomena,two-phase flow model is employed to formulate the FSI(fluid-structure interaction)problem during dendritic solidification.In this model,solid is assumed to have huge viscosity to maintain its own shape and an exponential expression is constructed to describe variable viscosity across s-l(solid-liquid)interface.With an effective preconditioner for saddle point structure,we build a N-S(Navier-Stokes)solver robust to tremendous viscosity ratio(as large as 10^(10))between solid and liquid.Polycrystalline solidification is computed by vector-valued phase field model,which is computationally convenient to handle contact between dendrites.Locations of dendrites are updated by solving advection equations.Orientation change due to dendrite's rotation has been considered as well.Calculation is accelerated by two-level time stepping scheme,adaptive mesh refinement,and parallel computation.Settlement and growth of a single dendrite and multiple dendrites in Al-Cu alloy were simulated,showing the availability of the provided model to handle anisotropic growth,motion and impingement of dendrites.This study lays foundation to simulate solidification coupled with deformation in the future.

Sensitivity of the Impact Toughness and Microstructure of 15CrNi3MoV Steel Under Different Quenching Rates

The sensitivities of the mechanical properties and microstructure of 15CrNi3MoV alloy steel under different quenching rates were investigated in the present study.After subjection to quenching with four different cooling rates(water cooling,forced air cooling,static air cooling and furnace cooling)followed by tempering,the microstructure was characterized by scanning electron microscopy(SEM),electron back-scattered diffraction(EBSD),and transmission electron microscopy(TEM);and the low-temperature(−20°C)impact toughness was evaluated.The results showed that the tempered microstructure and mechanical properties had high sensitivity to the quenching rate.With a decrease in the quenching rate,the low-temperature impact energy of tempered specimens decreased with increasing fluctuation.Correspondingly,the fracture morphology changed from completely ductile to brittle.In addition,as the quenching cooling rate decreased,the as-quenched matrix changed from a lathy to a polygonal structure with the presence of carbides and martensite-austenite(M-A)constituents,and the effective grain size increased.Tempered martensite with dispersed fine carbides was found in the tempered water cooling specimen,and tempered bainite with a polygonal structure containing large carbides and rare incomplete undecomposed M-A constituents was found in the tempered forced air cooling,static air cooling and furnace cooling specimens.The small effective grain size and fine carbides contributed to the good temperature impact toughness of the tempered water cooling specimens.