Northward Shift in Landfall Locations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during the Last Four Decades

This study analyzes landfall locations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific during 1979–2018.Results demonstrate that the landfall locations of TCs over this region have shifted northward during the last four decades,primarily due to the shift of landfalling TC tracks,with the decreasing/increasing proportion of westward/northward TC tracks.In particular,the northward shift of the landfalling TCs was not related to their formation locations,which have not markedly changed,whereas"no-landed"TCs have significantly shifted northward.TC movement was significantly and positively correlated to the zonal component of the steering flow,while the correlation between TC movement and the meridional component of the steering flow was relatively unobvious.The westward steering flow in the tropical central Pacific that occurred around the formation and early development of the westward TCs was significantly weakened,which was unfavorable for their westward movement,thereby,causing the higher proportions of northward moving tracks.This weakened westward flow was related to the northward shift of the subtropical high ridge,which was caused by significant weakening of the southern part of the subtropical high.The vertical wind shear,sea surface temperature,and convective available potential energy also showed that the northern region of the western North Pacific became more favorable for TC development,whereas the upper divergence,low-layer relative vorticity,and accumulated water vapor content were not obviously related to the northward shift of TCs.

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones （TCs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m （MWS10） from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea （SCS）; however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS （1.93 h） is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP （2.83 h）. The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit （2008）. The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.