Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric pr...Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric process. The TC Viyaru is taken as an example, which is formed at the end of 11 May 2013 and sustains up to 17 May 2013 during pre-monsoon season. Argo data are used to investigate ocean response processes by comparing pre-and post-conditions of the TC. Eight oceanic parameters including the sea surface temperature(SST), the sea surface salinity(SSS), and the barrier layer thickness(BLT), the 26°C isotherm depth in the ocean(D26), the isothermal layer depth(ILD), the mixed layer depth(MLD), the tropical cyclone heat potential(TCHP) and the effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis(EOLC) are chosen to evaluate the pre-and post-conditions of the TC along the track of Viyaru. The values of the SST, D26, BLT, TCHP and EOLC in the pre-cyclonic condition are higher than the post-cyclonic condition, while the SSS, ILD and MLD in the post-cyclonic condition are higher than the pre-cyclonic condition of the ocean due to strong cyclonic winds and subsurface upwelling. It is interesting that the strong intensity of the TC reduces less SST and vice versa. The satisfied real time Argo data is not available in the northern Bay of Bengal especially in the coastal region. A weather research and forecasting model is employed to hindcast the track of Viyaru, and the satellite data from the National Center Environmental Prediction are used to assess the hindcast.展开更多
文摘Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric process. The TC Viyaru is taken as an example, which is formed at the end of 11 May 2013 and sustains up to 17 May 2013 during pre-monsoon season. Argo data are used to investigate ocean response processes by comparing pre-and post-conditions of the TC. Eight oceanic parameters including the sea surface temperature(SST), the sea surface salinity(SSS), and the barrier layer thickness(BLT), the 26°C isotherm depth in the ocean(D26), the isothermal layer depth(ILD), the mixed layer depth(MLD), the tropical cyclone heat potential(TCHP) and the effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis(EOLC) are chosen to evaluate the pre-and post-conditions of the TC along the track of Viyaru. The values of the SST, D26, BLT, TCHP and EOLC in the pre-cyclonic condition are higher than the post-cyclonic condition, while the SSS, ILD and MLD in the post-cyclonic condition are higher than the pre-cyclonic condition of the ocean due to strong cyclonic winds and subsurface upwelling. It is interesting that the strong intensity of the TC reduces less SST and vice versa. The satisfied real time Argo data is not available in the northern Bay of Bengal especially in the coastal region. A weather research and forecasting model is employed to hindcast the track of Viyaru, and the satellite data from the National Center Environmental Prediction are used to assess the hindcast.
