Availability of reliable knowledge on future climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are considered key elements to improving adaptive capacities and developing proper adaptation actions. The Nile Delta ...Availability of reliable knowledge on future climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are considered key elements to improving adaptive capacities and developing proper adaptation actions. The Nile Delta vulnerability to Sea Level Rise (SLR) has been the subject of a relatively significant number of studies in Egypt. The research question that this paper intends to address is “to what extent have the produced scientific knowledge supported climate change adaptation policy making, concerning inundation by SLR in the Nile Delta”. To address this question, the paper begins with a review of the literature on policy-research interaction, based on which a framework of policy-research interactions is developed. This is followed by examining generated knowledge from research and the role of such knowledge on adaptation strategy development in Egypt. It was found that the research cycle has provided ample knowledge on the Nile Delta vulnerability to inundation by SLR. Additionally, the bulk of this research work and produced knowledge have been the main source of information for climate change adaptation policymaking. The interaction between research and policymaking interest in the climate change adaptation arena in Egypt confronted several challenges that may have reduced impacts of research on policymaking. These challenges included low interest in the far future, uncertain sea level rise impacts among policymakers and the uncoordinated research and varied estimates of sea level rise impacts provided by the research cycle. Moreover, the lack of proper and effective communication channels between the two cycles may have further hindered possible interaction.展开更多
Malaria is one of the largest problems threatening global public health that is expected to increase in the future under climate change due to associated warming and wetter conditions. This will exacerbate disease bur...Malaria is one of the largest problems threatening global public health that is expected to increase in the future under climate change due to associated warming and wetter conditions. This will exacerbate disease burden in Burundi as one of sub-Saharan African countries, where 2 million cases of malaria were reported in 2015. This highlights the need for developing a methodology for mapping malaria risk under climate change and delineating those regions that may potentially experience malaria epidemics in the future. Malaria transmission and distribution are generally determined by a wide range of climatic, topographic and socioeconomic factors. The paper in hand is intended to map malaria risk in Burundi under climate change up to 2050. For this purpose, a GIS-based model was developed for mapping malaria as a function of various climatic and topographic determinants of malaria. The developed GIS-model was used in mapping malaria risk under current climatic conditions. Thereafter, the produced risk map was validated compared to malaria morbidity data in Burundi at health district level. Finally, the GIS-model was applied to map malaria risk in the future under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios up to 2050. It was found that about 34.6% and 44% of Burundi land surface will be highly vulnerable to malaria risk by 2050 under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenario, respectively. Also, it was noted that such highly vulnerable areas are distributed mainly in northern parts of the country. The suggested GIS-based model for mapping malaria risk under climate change can contribute largely to more informed decision-making and policy making process in terms of planning for intervention and control malaria risk. This in turn can support reducing disease burden and improving resilience to climate change.展开更多
文摘Availability of reliable knowledge on future climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are considered key elements to improving adaptive capacities and developing proper adaptation actions. The Nile Delta vulnerability to Sea Level Rise (SLR) has been the subject of a relatively significant number of studies in Egypt. The research question that this paper intends to address is “to what extent have the produced scientific knowledge supported climate change adaptation policy making, concerning inundation by SLR in the Nile Delta”. To address this question, the paper begins with a review of the literature on policy-research interaction, based on which a framework of policy-research interactions is developed. This is followed by examining generated knowledge from research and the role of such knowledge on adaptation strategy development in Egypt. It was found that the research cycle has provided ample knowledge on the Nile Delta vulnerability to inundation by SLR. Additionally, the bulk of this research work and produced knowledge have been the main source of information for climate change adaptation policymaking. The interaction between research and policymaking interest in the climate change adaptation arena in Egypt confronted several challenges that may have reduced impacts of research on policymaking. These challenges included low interest in the far future, uncertain sea level rise impacts among policymakers and the uncoordinated research and varied estimates of sea level rise impacts provided by the research cycle. Moreover, the lack of proper and effective communication channels between the two cycles may have further hindered possible interaction.
文摘Malaria is one of the largest problems threatening global public health that is expected to increase in the future under climate change due to associated warming and wetter conditions. This will exacerbate disease burden in Burundi as one of sub-Saharan African countries, where 2 million cases of malaria were reported in 2015. This highlights the need for developing a methodology for mapping malaria risk under climate change and delineating those regions that may potentially experience malaria epidemics in the future. Malaria transmission and distribution are generally determined by a wide range of climatic, topographic and socioeconomic factors. The paper in hand is intended to map malaria risk in Burundi under climate change up to 2050. For this purpose, a GIS-based model was developed for mapping malaria as a function of various climatic and topographic determinants of malaria. The developed GIS-model was used in mapping malaria risk under current climatic conditions. Thereafter, the produced risk map was validated compared to malaria morbidity data in Burundi at health district level. Finally, the GIS-model was applied to map malaria risk in the future under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios up to 2050. It was found that about 34.6% and 44% of Burundi land surface will be highly vulnerable to malaria risk by 2050 under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenario, respectively. Also, it was noted that such highly vulnerable areas are distributed mainly in northern parts of the country. The suggested GIS-based model for mapping malaria risk under climate change can contribute largely to more informed decision-making and policy making process in terms of planning for intervention and control malaria risk. This in turn can support reducing disease burden and improving resilience to climate change.
