Predicting short-term thromboembolic risk following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass using supervised machine learning

BACKGROUND Roux-en-Y gastric bypass(RYGB)is a widely recognized bariatric procedure that is particularly beneficial for patients with class III obesity.It aids in significant weight loss and improves obesity-related medical conditions.Despite its effectiveness,postoperative care still has challenges.Clinical evidence shows that venous thromboembolism(VTE)is a leading cause of 30-d morbidity and mortality after RYGB.Therefore,a clear unmet need exists for a tailored risk assessment tool for VTE in RYGB candidates.AIM To develop and internally validate a scoring system determining the individualized risk of 30-d VTE in patients undergoing RYGB.METHODS Using the 2016–2021 Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation Quality Improvement Program,data from 6526 patients(body mass index≥40 kg/m^(2))who underwent RYGB were analyzed.A backward elimination multivariate analysis identified predictors of VTE characterized by pulmonary embolism and/or deep venous thrombosis within 30 d of RYGB.The resultant risk scores were derived from the coefficients of statistically significant variables.The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating curves through 5-fold cross-validation.RESULTS Of the 26 initial variables,six predictors were identified.These included a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with a regression coefficient(Coef)of 2.54(P<0.001),length of stay(Coef 0.08,P<0.001),prior deep venous thrombosis(Coef 1.61,P<0.001),hemoglobin A1c>7%(Coef 1.19,P<0.001),venous stasis history(Coef 1.43,P<0.001),and preoperative anticoagulation use(Coef 1.24,P<0.001).These variables were weighted according to their regression coefficients in an algorithm that was generated for the model predicting 30-d VTE risk post-RYGB.The risk model's area under the curve(AUC)was 0.79[95%confidence interval(CI):0.63-0.81],showing good discriminatory power,achieving a sensitivity of 0.60 and a specificity of 0.91.Without training,the same model performed satisfactorily in patients with laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy with an AUC of 0.63(95%CI:0.62-0.64)and endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty with an AUC of 0.76(95%CI:0.75-0.78).CONCLUSION This simple risk model uses only six variables to assist clinicians in the preoperative risk stratification of RYGB patients,offering insights into factors that heighten the risk of VTE events.

Peptic ulcer disease in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease hospitalizations:A new challenge on the horizon in the United States

BACKGROUND Peptic ulcer disease(PUD)is frequently seen in patients with liver cirrhosis.However,current literature lacks data on PUD in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)hospitalizations.AIM To identify trends and clinical outcomes of PUD in NAFLD hospitalizations in the United States.METHODS The National Inpatient Sample was utilized to identify all adult(≥18 years old)NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD in the United States from 2009-2019.Hospitalization trends and outcomes were highlighted.Furthermore,a control group of adult PUD hospitalizations without NAFLD was also identified for a comparative analysis to assess the influence of NAFLD on PUD.RESULTS The total number of NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD increased from 3745 in 2009 to 3805 in 2019.We noted an increase in the mean age for the study population from 56 years in 2009 to 63 years in 2019(P<0.001).Racial differences were also prevalent as NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD increased for Whites and Hispanics,while a decline was observed for Blacks and Asians.The all-cause inpatient mortality for NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD increased from 2%in 2009 to 5%in 2019(P<0.001).However,rates of Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)infection and upper endoscopy decreased from 5%in 2009 to 1%in 2019(P<0.001)and from 60%in 2009 to 19%in 2019(P<0.001),respectively.Interestingly,despite a significantly higher comorbidity burden,we observed lower inpatient mortality(2%vs 3%,P=0.0004),mean length of stay(LOS)(11.6 vs 12.1 d,P<0.001),and mean total healthcare cost(THC)($178598 vs$184727,P<0.001)for NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD compared to non-NAFLD PUD hospitalizations.Perforation of the gastrointestinal tract,coagulopathy,alcohol abuse,malnutrition,and fluid and electrolyte disorders were identified to be independent predictors of inpatient mortality for NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD.CONCLUSION Inpatient mortality for NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD increased for the study period.However,there was a significant decline in the rates of H.pylori infection and upper endoscopy for NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD.After a comparative analysis,NAFLD hospitalizations with PUD had lower inpatient mortality,mean LOS,and mean THC compared to the non-NAFLD cohort.

Acute pancreatitis in liver transplant hospitalizations:Identifying national trends,clinical outcomes and healthcare burden in the United States

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP)in liver transplant(LT)recipients may lead to poor clinical outcomes and development of severe complications.AIM We aimed to assess national trends,clinical outcomes,and the healthcare burden of LT hospitalizations with AP in the United States(US).METHODS The National Inpatient Sample was utilized to identify all adult(≥18 years old)LT hospitalizations with AP in the US from 2007–2019.Non-LT AP hospitalizations served as controls for comparative analysis.National trends of hospitalization characteristics,clinical outcomes,complications,and healthcare burden for LT hospitalizations with AP were highlighted.Hospitalization characteristics,clinical outcomes,complications,and healthcare burden were also compared between the LT and non-LT cohorts.Furthermore,predictors of inpatient mortality for LT hospitalizations with AP were identified.All P values≤0.05 were considered statistically significant.RESULTS The total number of LT hospitalizations with AP increased from 305 in 2007 to 610 in 2019.There was a rising trend of Hispanic(16.5%in 2007 to 21.1%in 2018,P-trend=0.0009)and Asian(4.3%in 2007 to 7.4%in 2019,p-trend=0.0002)LT hospitalizations with AP,while a decline was noted for Blacks(11%in 2007 to 8.3%in 2019,P-trend=0.0004).Furthermore,LT hospitalizations with AP had an increasing comorbidity burden as the Charlson Comorbidity Index(CCI)score≥3 increased from 41.64%in 2007 to 62.30%in 2019(P-trend<0.0001).We did not find statistically significant trends in inpatient mortality,mean length of stay(LOS),and mean total healthcare charge(THC)for LT hospitalizations with AP despite rising trends of complications such as sepsis,acute kidney failure(AKF),acute respiratory failure(ARF),abdominal abscesses,portal vein thrombosis(PVT),and venous thromboembolism(VTE).Between 2007–2019,6863 LT hospitalizations with AP were compared to 5649980 non-LT AP hospitalizations.LT hospitalizations with AP were slightly older(53.5 vs 52.6 years,P=0.017)and had a higher proportion of patients with CCI≥3(51.5%vs 19.8%,P<0.0001)compared to the non-LT cohort.Additionally,LT hospitalizations with AP had a higher proportion of Whites(67.9%vs 64.6%,P<0.0001)and Asians(4%vs 2.3%,P<0.0001),while the non-LT cohort had a higher proportion of Blacks and Hispanics.Interestingly,LT hospitalizations with AP had lower inpatient mortality(1.37%vs 2.16%,P=0.0479)compared to the non-LT cohort despite having a higher mean age,CCI scores,and complications such as AKF,PVT,VTE,and the need for blood transfusion.However,LT hospitalizations with AP had a higher mean THC($59596 vs$50466,P=0.0429)than the non-LT cohort.CONCLUSION In the US,LT hospitalizations with AP were on the rise,particularly for Hispanics and Asians.However,LT hospitalizations with AP had lower inpatient mortality compared to non-LT AP hospitalizations.

Relationships of hospitalization outcomes and timing to endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding:A nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND The optimal timing of esophagogastroduodenoscopy(EGD)and the impact of clinico-demographic factors on hospitalization outcomes in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding(NVUGIB)remains an area of active research.AIM To identify independent predictors of outcomes in patients with NVUGIB,with a particular focus on EGD timing,anticoagulation(AC)status,and demographic features.METHODS A retrospective analysis of adult patients with NVUGIB from 2009 to 2014 was performed using validated ICD-9 codes from the National Inpatient Sample database.Patients were stratified by EGD timing relative to hospital admission(≤24 h,24-48 h,48-72 h,and>72 h)and then by AC status(yes/no).The primary outcome was all-cause inpatient mortality.Secondary outcomes included healthcare usage.RESULTS Of the 1082516 patients admitted for NVUGIB,553186(51.1%)underwent EGD.The mean time to EGD was 52.8 h.Early(<24 h from admission)EGD was associated with significantly decreased mortality,less frequent intensive care unit admission,shorter length of hospital stays,lower hospital costs,and an increased likelihood of discharge to home(all with P<0.001).AC status was not associated with mortality among patients who underwent early EGD(aOR 0.88,P=0.193).Male sex(OR 1.30)and Hispanic(OR 1.10)or Asian(aOR 1.38)race were also independent predictors of adverse hospitalization outcomes in NVUGIB.CONCLUSION Based on this large,nationwide study,early EGD in NVUGIB is associated with lower mortality and decreased healthcare usage,irrespective of AC status.These findings may help guide clinical management and would benefit from prospective validation.

Ever-increasing diversity of drug-induced pancreatitis

With over 100000 hospital admissions per annum,acute pancreatitis remains the leading gastrointestinal cause of hospitalization in the United States and has farreaching impact well beyond.It has become increasingly recognized that druginduced pancreatitis(DIP),despite accounting for less than 3%of all cases,represents an important and growing though often inconspicuous cause of acute pancreatitis.Nevertheless,knowledge of DIP is often curtailed by the limited availability of evidence needed to implicate given agents,especially for nonprescription medications.Indeed,the majority of available data is derived from case reports,case series,or case control studies.Furthermore,the mechanism of injury and causality for many of these drugs remain elusive as a definitive correlation is generally not established(<10%of cases).Several classification systems have been proposed,but no single system has been widely adopted,and periodic updates are required in light of ongoing pharmacologic expansion.Moreover,infrequently prescribed medications or those available over-thecounter(including herbal and other alternative remedies)are often overlooked as a potential culprit of acute pancreatitis.Herein,we review the ever-increasing diversity of DIP and the potential mechanisms of injury with the goal of raising awareness regarding the nature and magnitude of this entity.We believe this manuscript will aid in increasing both primary and secondary prevention of DIP,thus ultimately facilitating more expedient diagnosis and a decrease in DIPrelated morbidity.

Artificial intelligence and cholangiocarcinoma:Updates and prospects

Artificial intelligence(AI)is the timeliest field of computer science and attempts to mimic cognitive function of humans to solve problems.In the era of“Big data”,there is an ever-increasing need for AI in all aspects of medicine.Cholangiocarcinoma(CCA)is the second most common primary malignancy of liver that has shown an increase in incidence in the last years.CCA has high mortality as it is diagnosed in later stages that decreases effect of surgery,chemotherapy,and other modalities.With technological advancement there is an immense amount of clinicopathologic,genetic,serologic,histologic,and radiologic data that can be assimilated together by modern AI tools for diagnosis,treatment,and prognosis of CCA.The literature shows that in almost all cases AI models have the capacity to increase accuracy in diagnosis,treatment,and prognosis of CCA.Most studies however are retrospective,and one study failed to show AI benefit in practice.There is immense potential for AI in diagnosis,treatment,and prognosis of CCA however limitations such as relative lack of studies in use by human operators in improvement of survival remains to be seen.

Global geoepidemiology of gastrointestinal surgery rates in Crohn’s disease

BACKGROUND Data regarding the worldwide gastrointestinal surgery rates in patients with Crohn’s disease(CD)remains limited.AIM To systematically review the global variation in the rates of surgery in CD.METHODS A comprehensive search analysis was performed using multiple electronic databases from inception through July 1,2020,to identify all full text,randomized controlled trials and cohort studies pertaining to gastrointestinal surgery rates in adult patients with CD.Outcomes included continent based demographic data,CD surgery rates over time,as well as the geoepidemiologic variation in CD surgery rates.Statistical analyses were conducted using R.RESULTS Twenty-three studies spanning four continents were included.The median proportion of persons with CD who underwent gastrointestinal surgery in studies from North America,Europe,Asia,and Oceania were 30%(range:1.7%-62.0%),40%(range:0.6%-74.0%),17%(range:16.0%-43.0%),and 38%respectively.No clear association was found regarding the proportion of patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery over time in North America(R^(2)=0.035)and Europe(R^(2)=0.100).A moderate,negative association was seen regarding the proportion of patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery over time(R^(2)=0.520)in Asia.CONCLUSION There appears to be significant inter-continental variation regarding surgery rates in CD.Homogenous evidencebased guidelines accounting for the geographic differences in managing patients with CD is prudent.Moreover,as a paucity of data on surgery rates in CD exists outside the North American and European continents,future studies,particularly in less studied locales,are warranted.

Early versus delayed necrosectomy in pancreatic necrosis:A population-based cohort study on readmission,healthcare utilization,and in-hospital mortality

BACKGROUND Acute necrotizing pancreatitis is a severe and life-threatening condition.It poses a considerable challenge for clinicians due to its complex nature and the high risk of complications.Several minimally invasive and open necrosectomy procedures have been developed.Despite advancements in treatment modalities,the optimal timing to perform necrosectomy lacks consensus.AIM To evaluate the impact of necrosectomy timing on patients with pancreatic necrosis in the United States.METHODS A national retrospective cohort study was conducted using the 2016-2019 Nationwide Readmissions Database.Patients with non-elective admissions for pancreatic necrosis were identified.The participants were divided into two groups based on the necrosectomy timing:The early group received intervention within 48 hours,whereas the delayed group underwent the procedure after 48 hours.The various intervention techniques included endoscopic,percutaneous,or surgical necrosectomy.The major outcomes of interest were 30-day readmission rates,healthcare utilization,and inpatient mortality.RESULTS A total of 1309 patients with pancreatic necrosis were included.After propensity score matching,349 cases treated with early necrosectomy were matched to 375 controls who received delayed intervention.The early cohort had a 30-day readmission rate of 8.6% compared to 4.8%in the delayed cohort(P=0.040).Early necrosectomy had lower rates of mechanical ventilation(2.9%vs 10.9%,P<0.001),septic shock(8%vs 19.5%,P<0.001),and in-hospital mortality(1.1%vs 4.3%,P=0.01).Patients in the early intervention group incurred lower healthcare costs,with median total charges of $52202 compared to$147418 in the delayed group.Participants in the early cohort also had a relatively shorter median length of stay(6 vs 16 days,P<0.001).The timing of necrosectomy did not significantly influence the risk of 30-day readmission,with a hazard ratio of 0.56(95%confidence interval:0.31-1.02,P=0.06).CONCLUSION Our findings show that early necrosectomy is associated with better clinical outcomes and lower healthcare costs.Delayed intervention does not significantly alter the risk of 30-day readmission.

Incidence, mortality, and risk factors of immunotherapy-associated hepatotoxicity: A nationwide hospitalization analysis

Background and aims Anti-neoplastic immunotherapy has revolutionized cancer management;however,its safety profile with respect to liver-related injury remains largely unexplored.Herein,we analyzed a United States national database to determine the incidence,mortality,and predictors of hepatotoxicity in the setting of anti-neoplastic immunotherapy.Methods This was a nationwide retrospective study of hospital encounters from 2011 to 2014 using the National Inpatient Sample(NIS)database.We utilized the International Classification of Diseases,Ninth Revision(ICD-9)coding system to identify all adult patients who underwent anti-neoplastic immunotherapy during hospitalization.The primary outcome was the incidence of hepatotoxicity during the same hospitalization.Secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality as well as socioeconomic and ethno-racial predictors of hepatotoxicity.Analyses were performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0.Results The sample included 3002 patients who underwent inpatient anti-neoplastic immunotherapy.The incidence of hepatotoxicity was 10.1%,which was significantly higher as compared to a matched inpatient population(adjusted odds ratio(aOR)4.93,95%confidence interval(CI):3.80–6.40,P=0.001).No significant mortality difference was seen in those that developed hepatotoxicity compared to those who did not(aOR 0.47,95%CI:0.03–8.03,P=0.612).Age under 60(aOR 1.56,95%CI:1.23–1.78,P=0.050)and white race(aOR 1.85,95%CI:1.35–2.04,P<0.010)were independent risk factors for developing immunotherapy-associated hepatotoxicity.Conclusions In this large,nationwide database analysis,we found that anti-neoplastic immunotherapy was associated with a nearly five-fold risk of in-hospital hepatotoxicity as compared to a matched inpatient population,though without an associated mortality difference.Additionally,younger age and white race were identified as predictors of immunotherapy-associated hepatotoxicity.Heightened vigilance and prospective investigation of the risk factors and liver-related adverse effects of anti-neoplastic immunotherapy are warranted.