Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production ...Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.展开更多
As both a beneficiary of global supply chain integration and a contributor to the creation of a new supply chain ecosystem,China is of immense importance to the growth of international supply chains.For example,it’s ...As both a beneficiary of global supply chain integration and a contributor to the creation of a new supply chain ecosystem,China is of immense importance to the growth of international supply chains.For example,it’s manufacturing industry is indispensable across every stage of the global supply chain from raw material to intermediate goods production and the assembly of finished products.And with a large consumer base,China has been the place where global goods and services are consumed.展开更多
Global industrial chains(GICs)have become a hallmark of the world economy underpinning the global production cycle.Since the reform and opening up was introduced in 1978,China has taken an active role in global value ...Global industrial chains(GICs)have become a hallmark of the world economy underpinning the global production cycle.Since the reform and opening up was introduced in 1978,China has taken an active role in global value chains(GVCs)and become the world’s factory floor.Under the external shocks to GICs,such as US trade frictions with China and the COVID-19 pandemic,China’s traditional comparative advantages in manufacturing which include its labor force and costs are waning.This has manifested in a wave of industrial relocations from China to other countries as well as China’s weakening international competitiveness.We took stock of the concepts and journey of GVCs and elaborated the intrinsic relationship between GVCs and the new development pattern of“dual circulations”.We also analyzed the trends of GVCs,the current status and problems of China’s industrial chains,and China’s market heft,complete industrial chains and the digital economy as new strengths for industrial chain upgrade.In our conclusion,this paper put forth some policy recommendations for China’s industrial chain upgrade in the context of dual circulations.展开更多
Under the global value chain, a country extensively employs foreign intermediate inputs in manufacturing its export products, which may not employ entirely local technology. Science-based measurement of technology con...Under the global value chain, a country extensively employs foreign intermediate inputs in manufacturing its export products, which may not employ entirely local technology. Science-based measurement of technology content in and structure of exports should be conducted using production process data. Using world input-output tables(WIOTs) of 1995-2011, this paper developed a new method for measuring the export technology content of China and other major countries. Our research findings suggest that, since 1995, there has been some technology upgrade of Chinese exports. China's overall and sector-specific technology contents, and domestic technology contents and indexes all increased and demonstrated a weak convergence towards the average level of developed countries. Judging by the relative rankings of sector-specific technology levels, China is almost locked at the lowest level in the world, and cannot challenge the technological superiority of developed countries like the U.S. and Japan.展开更多
企业在全球价值链中的位置,关系到企业的治理能力和绩效,进而影响一国的经济发展质量乃至国际地位。本文从增加值视角重新阐述了全球价值链位置测度和结构分解方法,并改进了Chor et al.(2014)的企业位置测度方法,进而实证测算分析了中...企业在全球价值链中的位置,关系到企业的治理能力和绩效,进而影响一国的经济发展质量乃至国际地位。本文从增加值视角重新阐述了全球价值链位置测度和结构分解方法,并改进了Chor et al.(2014)的企业位置测度方法,进而实证测算分析了中国企业在全球价值链中的位置及其结构变化。研究发现:(1)2000—2014年中国整体上游度和生产复杂度显著提高,产业链向上游延伸。(2)一般贸易企业的综合进出口位置、出口上游度高于加工贸易企业,但进口下游度低于加工贸易企业。一般贸易企业出口产品更多地用于中间投入品,离最终需求的距离相对较远,进口相对上游产品进行生产,而加工贸易一般进口相对下游的产品进行简单组装加工形成最终消费品再出口。(3)东部地区企业的综合进出口位置、出口上游度相对较低,偏向于最终消费品出口,而进口下游度较大,偏向于进口基本成型的中间品,体现了东部地区的加工组装特点。(4)相对于其他所有制类型企业,国有企业各类出口上游度相对较高但进口下游度相对较低,进而导致国有企业的综合进出口位置最高。此外,企业全要素生产、人均工资水平和资本密集度对企业出口上游度具有正向影响,而企业规模的影响为负。展开更多
基金the Special Project of the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC)“Open Development of China’s Trade and Investment:Basic Patterns,Overall Effects,and the Dual Circulations Paradigm”(Grant No.72141309)NSFC General Project“GVC Restructuring Effect of Emergent Public Health Incidents:Based on the General Equilibrium Model Approach of the Production Networks Structure”(Grant No.72073142)+1 种基金NSFC General Project“China’s Industrialization Towards Mid-and High-End Value Chains:Theoretical Implications,Measurement and Analysis”(Grant No.71873142)the Youth project of The National Social Science Fund of China“Research on the green and low-carbon development path and policy optimization of China’s foreign trade under the goal of‘dual carbon’”(Grant No.22CJY019).
文摘Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.
文摘As both a beneficiary of global supply chain integration and a contributor to the creation of a new supply chain ecosystem,China is of immense importance to the growth of international supply chains.For example,it’s manufacturing industry is indispensable across every stage of the global supply chain from raw material to intermediate goods production and the assembly of finished products.And with a large consumer base,China has been the place where global goods and services are consumed.
文摘Global industrial chains(GICs)have become a hallmark of the world economy underpinning the global production cycle.Since the reform and opening up was introduced in 1978,China has taken an active role in global value chains(GVCs)and become the world’s factory floor.Under the external shocks to GICs,such as US trade frictions with China and the COVID-19 pandemic,China’s traditional comparative advantages in manufacturing which include its labor force and costs are waning.This has manifested in a wave of industrial relocations from China to other countries as well as China’s weakening international competitiveness.We took stock of the concepts and journey of GVCs and elaborated the intrinsic relationship between GVCs and the new development pattern of“dual circulations”.We also analyzed the trends of GVCs,the current status and problems of China’s industrial chains,and China’s market heft,complete industrial chains and the digital economy as new strengths for industrial chain upgrade.In our conclusion,this paper put forth some policy recommendations for China’s industrial chain upgrade in the context of dual circulations.
文摘Under the global value chain, a country extensively employs foreign intermediate inputs in manufacturing its export products, which may not employ entirely local technology. Science-based measurement of technology content in and structure of exports should be conducted using production process data. Using world input-output tables(WIOTs) of 1995-2011, this paper developed a new method for measuring the export technology content of China and other major countries. Our research findings suggest that, since 1995, there has been some technology upgrade of Chinese exports. China's overall and sector-specific technology contents, and domestic technology contents and indexes all increased and demonstrated a weak convergence towards the average level of developed countries. Judging by the relative rankings of sector-specific technology levels, China is almost locked at the lowest level in the world, and cannot challenge the technological superiority of developed countries like the U.S. and Japan.
文摘企业在全球价值链中的位置,关系到企业的治理能力和绩效,进而影响一国的经济发展质量乃至国际地位。本文从增加值视角重新阐述了全球价值链位置测度和结构分解方法,并改进了Chor et al.(2014)的企业位置测度方法,进而实证测算分析了中国企业在全球价值链中的位置及其结构变化。研究发现:(1)2000—2014年中国整体上游度和生产复杂度显著提高,产业链向上游延伸。(2)一般贸易企业的综合进出口位置、出口上游度高于加工贸易企业,但进口下游度低于加工贸易企业。一般贸易企业出口产品更多地用于中间投入品,离最终需求的距离相对较远,进口相对上游产品进行生产,而加工贸易一般进口相对下游的产品进行简单组装加工形成最终消费品再出口。(3)东部地区企业的综合进出口位置、出口上游度相对较低,偏向于最终消费品出口,而进口下游度较大,偏向于进口基本成型的中间品,体现了东部地区的加工组装特点。(4)相对于其他所有制类型企业,国有企业各类出口上游度相对较高但进口下游度相对较低,进而导致国有企业的综合进出口位置最高。此外,企业全要素生产、人均工资水平和资本密集度对企业出口上游度具有正向影响,而企业规模的影响为负。
