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志愿服务参与能培育大学生非认知能力吗——基于追踪调研和双重差分技术的因果分析
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作者 胡平平 牛新春 汪卫平 《复旦教育论坛》 北大核心 2024年第2期54-63,共10页
已有众多研究基于人格特质理论和经验学习理论,揭示了志愿服务参与和大学生非认知能力存在双向因果关系。本文基于湖南省高校大学生发展追踪调查数据,采用双重差分法检验志愿服务参与和非认知能力的因果关系,以揭示志愿服务参与究竟是... 已有众多研究基于人格特质理论和经验学习理论,揭示了志愿服务参与和大学生非认知能力存在双向因果关系。本文基于湖南省高校大学生发展追踪调查数据,采用双重差分法检验志愿服务参与和非认知能力的因果关系,以揭示志愿服务参与究竟是筛选还是培育了大学生的非认知能力。研究结果证实了志愿服务参与对外向性和尽责性有筛选作用,对宜人性有培育作用,对情绪稳定性和开放性既没有筛选作用,也没有培育作用。这些结果表明高校志愿服务主要通过人格特质机制筛选了学生的非认知能力,对非认知能力的培育作用有限,促使我们重新审视高校志愿服务如何发挥实践育人的功能。 展开更多
关键词 志愿服务参与 非认知能力 因果关系 双重差分法 追踪调研
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从“单主轴”到“大拼盘”:美国沙特关系的重组
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作者 牛新春 《当代世界》 2024年第10期51-56,共6页
能源革命、美国中东战略收缩和沙特独立自主性增强三大因素交织叠加,导致“石油换安全”的根基受到严重冲击,美沙关系面临新一轮危机。2021年拜登政府上台后,经过一年多的较量美沙关系出现“回暖”迹象。乌克兰危机和新一轮巴以冲突等因... 能源革命、美国中东战略收缩和沙特独立自主性增强三大因素交织叠加,导致“石油换安全”的根基受到严重冲击,美沙关系面临新一轮危机。2021年拜登政府上台后,经过一年多的较量美沙关系出现“回暖”迹象。乌克兰危机和新一轮巴以冲突等因素,增加了美沙重塑双边关系的紧迫性。美沙尝试拓展双边关系基础,实现环环相扣的三边大交易,使美沙关系从“单主轴时代”进入“大拼盘时代”。“大拼盘”含有诸多内在悖论和微妙平衡,能够顺利实现的不确定性很多。未来,美沙关系或将长期在困境中徘徊摸索。 展开更多
关键词 美沙关系 中东局势 美国中东战略 沙特外交 沙伊关系 巴以冲突
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中国斡旋沙伊复交:新格局、新规则和新力量 被引量:2
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作者 牛新春 《当代世界》 北大核心 2023年第4期66-67,共2页
2023年3月10日,中国、沙特和伊朗三国在北京发表联合声明,沙特与伊朗同意两个月内恢复外交关系。中东地区影响最广泛的一对矛盾有望缓和,未来可能持续产生积极、正面的扩散效应。对于饱受战争冲突蹂躏的中东而言,这代表着合力谋发展的... 2023年3月10日,中国、沙特和伊朗三国在北京发表联合声明,沙特与伊朗同意两个月内恢复外交关系。中东地区影响最广泛的一对矛盾有望缓和,未来可能持续产生积极、正面的扩散效应。对于饱受战争冲突蹂躏的中东而言,这代表着合力谋发展的新格局;对于以丛林法则、西方意识形态为底色的国际政治而言,这代表着相互尊重、平等对待的新规则;对于被西方大国控制、主导的中东地区乃至国际秩序而言,这代表着冷战后世界政治舞台中心已经出现非西方的新力量。 展开更多
关键词 西方意识形态 丛林法则 恢复外交关系 西方大国 中东地区 新格局 政治舞台 扩散效应
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乘势而上:中国斡旋沙特伊朗复交及其影响 被引量:2
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作者 牛新春 李绍先 《国际问题研究》 北大核心 2023年第3期38-54,139,140,共19页
中东权力格局进入多极化时代,地区国家争相改善外部环境,以发展经济为首要任务,主要大国间关系有所改善,中东进入以政治缓和、经济发展为主要特征的新时代。以2022年12月中阿峰会为标志,中国中东政策从以经济为中心向融合经济、政治、... 中东权力格局进入多极化时代,地区国家争相改善外部环境,以发展经济为首要任务,主要大国间关系有所改善,中东进入以政治缓和、经济发展为主要特征的新时代。以2022年12月中阿峰会为标志,中国中东政策从以经济为中心向融合经济、政治、安全等维度的综合性政策转变。中国适时抓住中东变化机遇,成功斡旋沙特与伊朗建交,既为中东和平作出重大贡献,也为中国的新中东外交开了好头。 展开更多
关键词 中东政治 中国对中东政策 沙特与伊朗关系
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“两国方案”必须重回巴以谈判桌
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作者 牛新春 《当代世界》 北大核心 2023年第11期72-73,共2页
在新一轮巴以冲突(以下简称“加沙冲突”)不断升级之际,“两国方案”却出人意料地成为相关各方使用的高频词,时隔20多年后再次成为国际焦点。此轮加沙冲突造成1948年以来以色列平民最大伤亡,也导致近几十年来巴勒斯坦人最大伤亡,巴以关... 在新一轮巴以冲突(以下简称“加沙冲突”)不断升级之际,“两国方案”却出人意料地成为相关各方使用的高频词,时隔20多年后再次成为国际焦点。此轮加沙冲突造成1948年以来以色列平民最大伤亡,也导致近几十年来巴勒斯坦人最大伤亡,巴以关系遭到重创。历史的车轮可能转向和平的道路,也可能转向更暴力的轨道。 展开更多
关键词 巴以冲突 巴以关系 两国方案 高频词 巴勒斯坦人 伤亡 以色列 加沙
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乘势而上:中国斡旋沙特伊朗复交及其影响
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作者 牛新春 李绍先 《China International Studies》 2023年第4期5-28,共24页
On March 10,2023,China,Saudi Arabia and Iran issued a trilateral joint statement in Beijing,in which Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to resume their diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies and missions within a p... On March 10,2023,China,Saudi Arabia and Iran issued a trilateral joint statement in Beijing,in which Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to resume their diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months.The Saudi-Iran confrontation has been one of the most intractable regional conflicts in the Middle East.The announcement of the two countries to restore their diplomatic ties resulted from the interplay of several favorable factors and is expected to set off a series of positive developments that might de-escalate many regional hotspot issues in Yemen,Syria,Iraq,and Lebanon. 展开更多
关键词 diplomatic STATEMENT EXCEEDING
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政治极化与美国对华政策转型 被引量:9
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作者 牛新春 《学术前沿》 CSSCI 北大核心 2022年第6期44-53,共10页
当前,美国政治极化的程度史无前例,西方学者使用“极端极化”来描述这一状态。美国对华政策本身正在经历1979年以来最关键的转型,政治极化增加了转型的风险、极端倾向和不确定性。近年来,美国对华政策“政治化”“工具化”态势明显,特... 当前,美国政治极化的程度史无前例,西方学者使用“极端极化”来描述这一状态。美国对华政策本身正在经历1979年以来最关键的转型,政治极化增加了转型的风险、极端倾向和不确定性。近年来,美国对华政策“政治化”“工具化”态势明显,特朗普、拜登竞相在极端强硬的方向上“一路狂奔”。未来一段时期内,美国对华政策仍然会处于“动荡期”,暂时还看不到回归理性、平衡和稳定的迹象。 展开更多
关键词 美国政治 政治极化 美国对华政策 中美关系
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为何进步、为何退步:重点大学城乡学生学业表现变化过程 被引量:4
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作者 牛新春 杨菲 杨滢 《复旦教育论坛》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第3期58-66,共9页
对于学业表现变化过程的考察指向本科教育质量这个目前被广泛关注的议题。以大学生投入理论为指导,使用教育部直属X大学的学生学业记录和跟踪调研数据,考察学生学业表现进步和退步的过程。对学生大一、大二、大三学业表现进行了聚类分析... 对于学业表现变化过程的考察指向本科教育质量这个目前被广泛关注的议题。以大学生投入理论为指导,使用教育部直属X大学的学生学业记录和跟踪调研数据,考察学生学业表现进步和退步的过程。对学生大一、大二、大三学业表现进行了聚类分析,从而将学生分为五类——持续优秀、中上等进步、中上等退步、中下等进步、持续差等。学业进步的学生大二到大三持续投入,并没有避免挑战性课程;学业退步的学生从大二开始松懈,相对回避挑战性课程,深度学习相对不足。学生大学期间对作业的态度是影响学生学业表现变化的核心因素。农村学生虽然更可能持续差等,却也更可能取得学业进步;这些学生虽然面临家庭背景劣势和学习方法不当的压力,却依然实现了学业进步。研究结果不仅对重点大学进行过程性学业支持提供了实证依据,也对基于学业表现变化进行过程性评价,并以此激励弱势学生发展有着重要启示。 展开更多
关键词 学业表现变化 学业投入 重点大学 农村学生 K均值聚类分析
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美国中东战略:转型期的迷惑 被引量:3
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作者 牛新春 《当代世界》 CSSCI 2020年第3期11-18,共8页
近年来,美国中东战略出现诸多前后矛盾、反复无常的现象。以2011年美军撤出伊拉克为标志,美国中东战略进入转型期。美国中东战略转型在一定程度上回到"离岸平衡"的"常态",诸如大规模军事干预、输出民主等以往战略... 近年来,美国中东战略出现诸多前后矛盾、反复无常的现象。以2011年美军撤出伊拉克为标志,美国中东战略进入转型期。美国中东战略转型在一定程度上回到"离岸平衡"的"常态",诸如大规模军事干预、输出民主等以往战略行动被搁置。过去十年,美国在中东的几大利益重要性发生变化,导致其中东战略目标发生漂移。随着中东形势及美国国内政治的变化,美国实现中东战略目标的军事威慑、结盟援助与和平谈判三大手段明显乏力失灵。然而,美国短期内不会大规模减少在中东的投入,未来相当长时期内仍将是对中东最有影响的外部国家。 展开更多
关键词 美国中东战略 战略转型期 中东利益 战略目标
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“大二低谷”现象探究 被引量:18
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作者 郑雅君 李晓 牛新春 《高教发展与评估》 CSSCI 北大核心 2018年第5期46-59,115,116,共16页
基于认知-情绪-意图-行动相结合的经典理论框架,从"知-情-意-行"四个维度对"大二低谷"现象进行实证考察。利用F大学连续两年的本科生调研数据以及"准追踪调研"的特点,研究发现:在认知-情绪-意图-行为四... 基于认知-情绪-意图-行动相结合的经典理论框架,从"知-情-意-行"四个维度对"大二低谷"现象进行实证考察。利用F大学连续两年的本科生调研数据以及"准追踪调研"的特点,研究发现:在认知-情绪-意图-行为四个学生发展的维度中,除了"情"——学生满意度,其他维度均未出现"大二低谷"现象。更进一步的分析发现,即使满意度总体存在"大二低谷",但在实质上涉及学生成长发展的激励维度的满意度并没有在大学二年级时下降,学生仅仅对于支持性、外部性保健维度的满意度在大学二年级时显著下降。据此提出,"大二低谷"现象更可能体现了大学二年级学生在目标寻求、角色转换这一转折阶段的成长之痛,而并非一种发展的停滞或倒退。高校工作者对"大二低谷"现象毋须过分担心,应高度重视对大学二年级学生提供及时的心理疏导,以帮助学生平稳渡过成长阵痛期。 展开更多
关键词 大学二年级学生 大二低谷 知情意行 学生满意度 大学生成长
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Reflections on the Mechanism of Cooperation between China and Arab States 被引量:2
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作者 niu xinchun 《Contemporary International Relations》 2018年第4期40-60,共21页
During the Cold War,China’s diplomacy failed to treat the Arab states as a whole.It was not until the end of the Cold War that China established diplomatic relations with all 22 Arab states.Since then,a multilateral ... During the Cold War,China’s diplomacy failed to treat the Arab states as a whole.It was not until the end of the Cold War that China established diplomatic relations with all 22 Arab states.Since then,a multilateral cooperation mechanism between China and Arab states has come into existence and become steadily developed.In 2004,the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum was established.In 2010,China and the Arab states announced the establishment of a strategic cooperative relationship.After the Gulf War,the Arab world entered a period of fragmentation and division.The situation deteriorated after the drastic changes in the Middle East in 2011,to the point of entering an era of granulation.The ability of The League of Arab States to operate as a single international actor has been greatly impaired.In the era of the fragmentation of the Arab world,the mechanism of multilateral cooperation between China and the Arab States has developed in spite of these great difficulties.In future,the role and function of the multilateral mechanism of cooperation between China and the Arab states needs to be clarified,and efficiency needs to be improved based on the existing mechanisms. 展开更多
关键词 China' s diplomacy the Arab world the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum
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The U.S. Global Strategy as Seen from the Debate in the Primary Election
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作者 niu xinchun 《和平与发展》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第4期58-64,共7页
There may be more than one year to go before the 2008 U.S. presidential election, but the primary election of the two parties has already begun ahead of time. Both the Democratic and Republican candidates for
关键词 总统预选 美国 全球策略 辩论
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Global Politics:The Middle East Remains the Darkest Place in 2015
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作者 niu xinchun Li Hongli 《Contemporary International Relations》 2015年第2期47-51,共5页
Over the past four years,political changes in the Middle East have always appeared to be unexpected and dazzling.Anti-government'Arab Spring'movements against strongman politics broke out in 2011;political Isl... Over the past four years,political changes in the Middle East have always appeared to be unexpected and dazzling.Anti-government'Arab Spring'movements against strongman politics broke out in 2011;political Islam gained power through elections in Tunisia and Egypt in2012;an Egyptian military coup occurred in 2013;and in 2014 the'Islamic State'sprung up in Iraq and Syria.All these seemingly irrational episodes in fact share an inherent logical relationship.Looking ahead to2015,there is no end in sight to the military conflicts currently rife in the Middle East.This includes civil wars such as those in Iraq,Syria,and Libya,and the Yemen and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.There is no hope 展开更多
关键词 中东地区 政治 军事冲突 逻辑关系 伊斯兰 阿拉伯 突尼斯 叙利亚
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Collective Blindness:A Reflection on Predictions by Chinese Academics about the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
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作者 niu xinchun Hong Jianjun 《Contemporary International Relations》 2014年第3期62-83,5,共22页
During the early part of the 21 st century,Chinese academic circles made judgments and forecasts about U.S.war aims in Afghanistan and the Middle East,the possible process of the wars,and outcomes of postwar reconstru... During the early part of the 21 st century,Chinese academic circles made judgments and forecasts about U.S.war aims in Afghanistan and the Middle East,the possible process of the wars,and outcomes of postwar reconstruction.After the U.S.-led attack on Afghanistan on October 7,2001,and its military invasion of Iraq on March 20,2003,these big events were analyzed in the context of the international politics of the time.Since these two conflicts are coming to a conclusion,at least in their direct military scope,it is time to look back upon the forecasting framework to see whether alterations and improvements can be made.On December 18,2011,all American combat troops pulled out of Iraq,and the end is in sight for U.S.withdrawal from Afghanistan—either in December 2014,or thereafter. 展开更多
关键词 阿富汗战争 伊拉克 学术界 预测 中国 失明 集体 中东战争
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China Needs a New Diplomatic Focus
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作者 niu xinchun Ma Zongshi 《Contemporary International Relations》 2013年第2期47-58,4,共12页
Thanks to an improved extemal environment and a growing national strength, conditions are ripe for China to shift the focus of its foreign policy from politics/security to the economy. In the long term, China should c... Thanks to an improved extemal environment and a growing national strength, conditions are ripe for China to shift the focus of its foreign policy from politics/security to the economy. In the long term, China should concentrate solely on becoming a global economic power and not dilute its strategic resources in the pursuit of unrealistic political/security goals. Meanwhile, China should redirect its foreign policy away from the U.S.-led West and towards the developing world. These readjustments should be made according to the distribution of its diplomatic resources, makeup of its diplomatic personnel and with the aim of broadening their horizons and improving their work methods. 展开更多
关键词 发展中国家 外交政策 战略资源 安全目标 重定向 经济 政治 国力
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Trends in Middle Eastern Politics
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作者 niu xinchun Li Hongli 《Contemporary International Relations》 2013年第1期18-36,4,共19页
The politics in the Middle East has now entered into a new era from rigid, stagnant and stable period into a vibrant, unrest and conflict stage. This is not only a window of hope but also a thorny road, which can be c... The politics in the Middle East has now entered into a new era from rigid, stagnant and stable period into a vibrant, unrest and conflict stage. This is not only a window of hope but also a thorny road, which can be called "creative destruction." Facing new opportunities and challenges of its policies in the Middle East, China should promote research and discussion in depth. 展开更多
关键词 政治 中东 意识形态 阿拉伯 内源性 运动 权力 宗教
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On China's International Identity A Horizontal Analysis
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作者 niu xinchun Zheng Shiyun 《Contemporary International Relations》 2015年第1期39-55,4,共17页
According to Intemational Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics released in spring 2014, China, with its PPP-based GDP totaling $17.6 trillion, is set to replace the U.S. as the largest economy in the world.' Accordingly,... According to Intemational Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics released in spring 2014, China, with its PPP-based GDP totaling $17.6 trillion, is set to replace the U.S. as the largest economy in the world.' Accordingly, a new round of discussions on China's international status and identity arises. In recent years, this topic has been so controversial and sophisticated that it can be likened to a mountain assuming diverse shapes when viewed from different sides. 展开更多
关键词 中国 国际 IMF GDP PPP 经济
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China's Interests in and Influence over the Middle East
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作者 niu xinchun Xing Haibing 《Contemporary International Relations》 2014年第1期37-58,4,共22页
The Middle East became a critical region for China after 1993, when Beijing became a net oil importer. From this point, it became enmeshed in the complicated regional situation. And so China must realize its basic int... The Middle East became a critical region for China after 1993, when Beijing became a net oil importer. From this point, it became enmeshed in the complicated regional situation. And so China must realize its basic interests and policy objectives in the Middle East as well as set up an overall, balanced, clear and long-term strategic framework. Policy choices should be made in accordance with such factors as diplomatic tradition, national strength and political ideology. 展开更多
关键词 中东地区 中国 利益 石油净进口 意识形态 关键区
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Islamic State Reflects the Darker Side of International Politics
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作者 niu xinchun Hong Jianjun 《Contemporary International Relations》 2014年第5期136-140,共5页
In revolutions,it is crucial to identify who is the enemy and who is the friend.But when we look at Islamic State it is difficult to distinguish between the two.If there are only two participants,and the relationship ... In revolutions,it is crucial to identify who is the enemy and who is the friend.But when we look at Islamic State it is difficult to distinguish between the two.If there are only two participants,and the relationship is linear,there is no problem.But when there are multiple players,the problem becomes complex.When each player has many targets,and these targets overlap,conflict and vary,the friend-foe relationship 展开更多
关键词 国际政治 伊斯兰 状态 参与者 多目标
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The Disintegration of the Middle East Retreating to the "Weak Sovereignty Era"
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作者 niu xinchun 《Contemporary International Relations》 2017年第5期1-10,共10页
The Arab Spring in the spring of 2011 soon brought the Middle East into an abyss of chaos, instability, terrorism and civil war. Over the past six years, the Syria conflict in some areas tended to cool down. President... The Arab Spring in the spring of 2011 soon brought the Middle East into an abyss of chaos, instability, terrorism and civil war. Over the past six years, the Syria conflict in some areas tended to cool down. President Trump reached an agreement with Russian President Putin on building a new "conflict relegation zone" on July 7, 2017. After three years of hard fighting, Iraq liberated Mosul on July 9, 2017. Full restoration of territorial integrity is just around the comer. ISIS lost Mosul, and was trapped in Racca. Further loss of land and territory is just a matter of time. 展开更多
关键词 The Disintegration the Middle East Retreating the "Weak Sovereignty Era"
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