Analyzing long term urban growth trends can provide valuable insights into a city’s future growth.This study employs LANDSAT satellite images from 1990,2000,2010 and 2019 to perform a spatiotemporal assessment and pr...Analyzing long term urban growth trends can provide valuable insights into a city’s future growth.This study employs LANDSAT satellite images from 1990,2000,2010 and 2019 to perform a spatiotemporal assessment and predict Ahmedabad’s urban growth.Land Use Land Change(LULC)maps developed using the Maximum Likelihood classifier produce four principal classes:Built-up,Vegetation,Water body,and“Others”.In between 1990-2019,the total built-up area expanded by 130%,132 km^(2) in 1990 to 305 km^(2) in 2019.Rapid population growth is the chief contributor towards urban growth as the city added 3.9 km^(2) of additional built-up area to accommodate every 100,000 new residents.Further,a Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain model(MLP-MC)predicts Ahmedabad’s urban expansion by 2030.Compared to 2019,the MLP-MC model predicts a 25%and 19%increase in Ahmedabad’s total urban area and population by 2030.Unaltered,these trends shall generate many socio-economic and environmental problems.Thus,future urban development policies must balance further development and environmental damage.展开更多
基金Zero Peak Energy Demand for India(ZED-I)and Engineering and Physics Research Council EPSRC,No.EP/R008612/1。
文摘Analyzing long term urban growth trends can provide valuable insights into a city’s future growth.This study employs LANDSAT satellite images from 1990,2000,2010 and 2019 to perform a spatiotemporal assessment and predict Ahmedabad’s urban growth.Land Use Land Change(LULC)maps developed using the Maximum Likelihood classifier produce four principal classes:Built-up,Vegetation,Water body,and“Others”.In between 1990-2019,the total built-up area expanded by 130%,132 km^(2) in 1990 to 305 km^(2) in 2019.Rapid population growth is the chief contributor towards urban growth as the city added 3.9 km^(2) of additional built-up area to accommodate every 100,000 new residents.Further,a Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain model(MLP-MC)predicts Ahmedabad’s urban expansion by 2030.Compared to 2019,the MLP-MC model predicts a 25%and 19%increase in Ahmedabad’s total urban area and population by 2030.Unaltered,these trends shall generate many socio-economic and environmental problems.Thus,future urban development policies must balance further development and environmental damage.
