Past assessments report negative impacts of the climate crisis in boreal areas;but milder and shorter winters and elevated atmospheric CO_(2) may provide opportunities for agricultural productivity potentially playing...Past assessments report negative impacts of the climate crisis in boreal areas;but milder and shorter winters and elevated atmospheric CO_(2) may provide opportunities for agricultural productivity potentially playing a significant role in future food security.Arable cropping systems are expanding in boreal areas,but the regional mainstay will likely continue to be livestock production.Agroecological models can when appropriately calibrated and evaluated,facilitate improved productivity while minimising environmental impacts by identifying system interactions,and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions,soil carbon stocks and fertiliser use.While models designed for temperate and tropical zones abound,few are developed specifically for boreal zones,and there is uncertainty around the performance of existing models in boreal areas.We reviewed model performance across boreal environments and management systems.We identified a dearth of modelling studies in boreal regions,with the publication of three or less papers per year since the year 2000,constituting a significant research gap.Models IFSM and BASGRA_N performed best in grassland production,DNDC best in predicting soil N_(2)O and NH_(3) emissions.No model outperformed all others,strengthening the case for ensemble modelling.Existing agroecological models would be worthy of further evaluation,providing model improvements designed for boreal systems.展开更多
基金supported by funding from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Finland(Helsinki,FI)(Project:Clover for biogas,Project NC-GRASS:VN/28562/2020-MMM-2)the support from the Academy of Finland funded ENSINK project(Decision number 334422).
文摘Past assessments report negative impacts of the climate crisis in boreal areas;but milder and shorter winters and elevated atmospheric CO_(2) may provide opportunities for agricultural productivity potentially playing a significant role in future food security.Arable cropping systems are expanding in boreal areas,but the regional mainstay will likely continue to be livestock production.Agroecological models can when appropriately calibrated and evaluated,facilitate improved productivity while minimising environmental impacts by identifying system interactions,and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions,soil carbon stocks and fertiliser use.While models designed for temperate and tropical zones abound,few are developed specifically for boreal zones,and there is uncertainty around the performance of existing models in boreal areas.We reviewed model performance across boreal environments and management systems.We identified a dearth of modelling studies in boreal regions,with the publication of three or less papers per year since the year 2000,constituting a significant research gap.Models IFSM and BASGRA_N performed best in grassland production,DNDC best in predicting soil N_(2)O and NH_(3) emissions.No model outperformed all others,strengthening the case for ensemble modelling.Existing agroecological models would be worthy of further evaluation,providing model improvements designed for boreal systems.
