Use of the Max Ent model to predict changes in sloth bear(Melursus ursinus)habitats in the Gandaki River Basin,Nepal

The Gandaki River Basin(GRB),located in the central Himalaya,provides habitats for a large number of important flora and fauna species.The habitats of key protected species have changed over time as a result of climate changes and human activities related to land use change,including the development of roads.This study assessed the present and future distributions of sloth bear(Melursus ursinus)habitats using the maximum entropy(Max Ent)model.Bioclimatic data,a digital elevation model and roads were used as environmental layers to assess current and future distributions of habitat.Results show that the overall habitat within the study area is likely to undergo important changes in the future.Bio 8(the mean temperature of the wettest quarter)and slope were found to be important variables affecting the distribution of the species.The habitats very highly suitable for sloth bears currently cover an area of 148 km^(2) within the GRB.These habitats are predicted to increase by 122 km^(2) more by 2050.Overall,a net change by 680.38 km^(2) was found in the GRB.Conservation measures are necessary for this key protected species and its habitat within the GRB and elsewhere in Nepal.

Review of studies on land use and land cover change in Nepal

Land use and land cover(LULC) in Nepal has undergone constant change over the past few decades due to major changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors and their impacts on the national and regional environment and climate.This comprehensive review of past and present studies of land use and land cover change(LUCC) in Nepal concentrates on cropland, grassland, forest, snow/glacier cover and urban areas. While most small area studies have gathered data from different sources and research over a short period, across large areas most historical studies have been based on aerial photographs such as the Land Resource Mapping Project in 1986. The recent trend in studies in Nepal is to focus on new concepts and techniques to analyze LULC status on the basis of satellite imagery, with the help of geographic information system and remote sensing tools. Studies based on historical documents, and historical and recent spatial data on LULC, have clearly shown an increase in cropland areas in Nepal,and present results indicating different rates and magnitudes. A decrease in forest and snow/glacier coverage is reported in most studies. Little information is available on grassland and urban areas from past research. The unprecedented rate of urbanization in Nepal has led to significant urban land changes over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, long term historical LUCC research in Nepal is required for extensive work on spatially explicit reconstructions on the basis of historical and primary data collection, including LULC archives and drivers for future change.

Erratum to:Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin,central Himalaya,from 1977 to 2010,derived from Landsat satellite images

The article Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin,central Himalaya,from 1977 to 2010,derived from Landsat satellite images,written by Finu SHRESTHA,GAO Xiao,Narendra Raj KHANAL,Sudan Bikash MAHARJAN,Rajendra Bahadur SHRESTHA,WU Li-zong,Pradeep Kumar MOOL and Samjwal Ratna BAJRACHARYA,was originally erroneously published electronicaliy on the publisher's internet portal(currently SpringerLink)on 04 October 2017 without open access.

Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin, central Himalaya, from 1977 to 2010, derived from Landsat satellite images

Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas.Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km^2 and average size of 0.06 km^2 in the Koshi basin. Of these,47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km^2 in 1977 to 127.61 km^2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size(≤ 0.1km^2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km^2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km^2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92km^2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km^2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas(in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas(in Nepal).Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period(1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km^2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOF.

Satellite Image-based Monitoring of Urban Land Use Change and Assessing the Driving Factors in Pokhara and Bharatpur Metropolitan Cities, Gandaki Basin, Nepal

Urban growth is a key indicator of economic development.At the same time,haphazard urban growth creates serious socioeconomic,environmental and urban land management problems.In this context,understanding the process of urban landscape change is important for guiding the sustainable growth of urban areas.This study analyzes the urban land changes during 1990–2018 in two metropolitan cities of Gandaki basin:Pokhara and Bharatpur.Landsat satellite images were analyzed using supervised classification methods.The results revealed that the built-up area has increased significantly by 300%in Pokhara and by nearly 500%in the Bharatpur during the past 28 years.Population growth,migration from surrounding areas due to urban facilities and the easy lifestyle in cities were found to be major determinants of urban growth within the study area.In addition,the changing urban definition and expansion of municipal boundaries are key factors for rapid urban growth.Both cities are likely to grow in the future as they are both located in areas that encompass the high levels of commercial activity and modern service facilities.The haphazard urban growth should be minimized through planning and policies for sustainable urban development.

Composition and Regeneration of Trees in the Community Forests of Lamjung District,Nepal

The community forest program in Nepal is one of the successful conservation initiatives.Tree species in a forest ecosystem have a fundamental role in maintaining the vegetation structure,complexity,and heterogeneity.This study analyzes the composition and regeneration of tree species in five community forests(CFs)of the sub-tropical region,Lamjung district,Nepal for preparing baseline data for long-term research projects and helps the community to manage their CFs scientifically.Tree species data were generated by stratified random sampling using 35 quadrate plots(size:20 m x 20 m).The density of adult trees in the forests ranged from 575 Ind ha^(-1)(Tilahar CF)to 1196 Ind/ha(Deurali Thadopakha CF).The sapling ranged from 2533 Ind ha^(-1)(Tilahar CF)to 4000 Ind ha^(-1)(Thuliban CF)and seedling from 19583 Ind ha^(-1)(Tilahar CF)to 37500 Ind ha^(-1)(Thuliban CF).Similarly,the adult tree basal area varied from 28.34 m^(2) ha^(-1)(Tilahar CF)to 49 m^(2) ha^(-1)(Deurali CF).The adult tree diversity index(Shannon-Weiner’s H)also ranged from 1.08(Thuliban CF)to 1.88(Tilahar CF).The tree species such as Sapium insigne,Ficus benghalensis,Lagerstroemia parviflore,Albizia sp.and Pinus roxburghii were weak regeneration.In general,the forests have good regeneration status except for Tilahar Community Forest,but based on the DBH size class distribution diagram,there is no sustainable regeneration.Among the five community forests the DBH size of adults was significantly different,and the DBH of Deurali Thadopakha was the lowest.But only few species have good regeneration and most of the species have weak,poor to no regeneration.The dominancy of fewer species like Shorea robusta,Castanopsis indica,and Schima wallichii accordingly maintain the overall regeneration of tree of CFs,so further plantation needs to be done inside the CF by triage accordingly those species whose regeneration has poor.

1971-2009年珠穆朗玛峰地区尼泊尔境内气候变化

利用珠穆朗玛峰南坡尼泊尔境内(科西河流域)的10个气象站1971-2009年月平均气温、月平均最高、最低气温和逐月降水资料,采用线性趋势、Sen斜率估计、Mann-Kendall等方法分析区域气候变化状况及其时空特征,并与珠穆朗玛峰北坡地区气候进行比较,分析了珠穆朗玛峰地区气候变化的特征与趋势。结果表明:(1)1971-2009年间,珠穆朗玛峰南坡年平均气温为20.0℃,线性升温率为0.25℃/10a,与北坡主要受年平均最低气温影响相反,增幅主要受年平均最高气温升高的影响,并且在1974年及1992年间出现两次显著增温,增温特别明显的月份为2月和9月;(2)该地区降水变化的局地性较强,近40年间年平均降水量为1729.01mm,年平均降水量以每年约4.27mm的线性增幅有所增加,但并不显著,且降水月变化和季变化特征均不明显;(3)由于珠穆朗玛峰南坡受到季风带来暖湿气流和喜马拉雅山阻挡的双重影响,珠峰南坡的年平均降水量远高于北坡;(4)珠穆朗玛峰南坡气温变暖的海拔依赖性并不明显,且南坡地区的变暖趋势并没有北坡变暖趋势明显。

Change in the Distribution of National Bird (Himalayan Monal) Habitat in Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalayas

Gandaki River Basin(GRB) is part of the central Himalayan region, which provides habitat for numerous wild species. However, due to changes in climate and land cover, the habitats of many protected species are at risk. Based on the maximum entropy(MaxEnt) model, coupled with bioclimatic layers, land cover and DEM data, the impacts of environmental factors on habitat suitability of Himalayan Monal(Lophophorus impejanus), a national bird of Nepal, was quantified. This study further assessed the present and future habitat and distribution of the Himalayan Monal in the context of climate and land cover changes. The results of this study show that the highly suitable habitat of Himalayan Monal presently occupies around 749 km^2 within the northern, eastern and western parts, particularly protected areas such as Langtang National Park, Manaslu Conservation Area and Annapurna Conservation Area, while it is likely to decrease to 561 km^2 by 2050, primarily in the northern and northwestern parts(i.e., Chhyo, Tatopani, Humde and Chame). These expected changes indicate increasing risk for Himalayan Monal due to a decline in its suitable habitat area.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Vulnerable Species in Gandaki River Basin,Central Himalayas

Gandaki River Basin(GRB)is an important part of the central Himalayan region,which provides habitat for numerous wild species.However,climatic changes are making the habitat in this basin more vulnerable.This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distributions of habitat changes for two vulnerable species,Himalayan black bear(Ursus thibetanus laniger)and common leopard(Panthera pardus fusca),using the maximum entropy(Max Ent)species distribution model.Species occurrence locations were used along with several bioclimatic and topographic variables(elevation,slope and aspect)to fit the model and predict the potential distributions(current and future)of the species.The results show that the highly suitable area of Himalayan black bear within the GRB currently encompasses around 1642 km^(2)(5.01%area of the basin),which is predicted to increase by 51 km^(2) in the future(2050).Similarly,the habitat of common leopard is estimated as 3999 km^(2)(12.19%of the GRB area),which is likely to increase to 4806 km^(2) in 2050.Spatially,the habitat of Himalayan black bear is predicted to increase in the eastern part(Baseri,Tatopani and north from Bhainse)and to decrease in the eastern(Somdang,Chhekampar),western(Burtibang and Bobang)and northern(Sangboche,Manang,Chhekampar)parts of the study area.Similarly,the habitat of common leopard is projected to decrease particularly in the eastern,western and southern parts of the basin,although it is estimated to be extended in the southeastern(Bhainse),western(Harichaur and northern Sandhikhark)and north-western(Sangboche)parts of the basin.To determine the habitat impact,the environmental variables such as elevation,Bio 15(precipitation seasonality)and Bio 16(precipitation of wettest quarter)highly contribute to habitat change of Himalayan black bear;while Bio 13(precipitation of wettest month)and Bio 15 are the main contributors for common leopard.Overall,this study predicted that the suitable habitat areas of both species are likely to be impacted by climate change at different altitudes in the future,and these are the areas that need more attention in order to protect these species.

A geo-spatial database about the eco-environment and its key issues in South Asia

The South Asia has high variability in geographical features,climate,andlandscapes.With the rapid economic development and population growth,the increased pressure on natural resources,land degradation,water crisis,and climate change become the common concerns forthe countries in the region.To get a deep and general idea about the land and water natural resources and environment in South Asia,a knowl-edge database was constructed based on the climatic condition,land use/cover,waterresources,water disasters,and geohazards.There sults presented a scientific insight regarding the spatio-temporal changing pattern of the eco-environ mental components in this region.Risk assessments were performed for the floods,droughts,and geohazards which occurred with a high frequency.In general,the big knowledge database established in this study would be helpful to aid the devel-opment of future policies and programs(like the Belt and Road Initiative)for environmental issues adaptation in the region,including initiatives for regional cooperation and capacity building in natural resources and environment management.