As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5℃,joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas(GHG)emitters-the United States(U.S.)and China-will be critical to deliver s...As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5℃,joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas(GHG)emitters-the United States(U.S.)and China-will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action.After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy,these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action.In this context,a feasible,high-impact,and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S.and China to transition away from coal to clean energy would be a major contribution toward this global effort.We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical coal retirement pathways for each country that are in line with national priorities and the global 1.5℃ target.Our plant-by-plant analysis shows that the 1.5℃-compatible pathways may result in an average retirement age of 47 years for the U.S.coal plants and 22 years for Chinese coal plants,raising important questions of how to compare broader economic,employment,and social impacts.We also demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions,lowering overall global energy-related CO_(2) emissions by about 9%in 2030 relative to 2020.A catalytic effect from the possibility of other countries taking compatible actions is estimated to reduce global emissions by 5.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2030 and by 10.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2045.展开更多
基金RC,NH,DC,LC,HM acknowledge funding support from Bloomberg Philanthropies,USA and Climate Works Foundation,USAJH Yuan acknowledges the funding of National Natural Science Foundation of China(72173043)+1 种基金WJ Cai acknowledges the funding of National Natural Science Foundation of China(71773061)the GEIGC Science and Technology Project in the framework of the“Research on Comprehensive Path Evaluation Methods and Practical Models for the Synergetic Development of Global Energy,Atmospheric Environment and Human Health”(grant No.20210302007).
文摘As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5℃,joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas(GHG)emitters-the United States(U.S.)and China-will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action.After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy,these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action.In this context,a feasible,high-impact,and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S.and China to transition away from coal to clean energy would be a major contribution toward this global effort.We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical coal retirement pathways for each country that are in line with national priorities and the global 1.5℃ target.Our plant-by-plant analysis shows that the 1.5℃-compatible pathways may result in an average retirement age of 47 years for the U.S.coal plants and 22 years for Chinese coal plants,raising important questions of how to compare broader economic,employment,and social impacts.We also demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions,lowering overall global energy-related CO_(2) emissions by about 9%in 2030 relative to 2020.A catalytic effect from the possibility of other countries taking compatible actions is estimated to reduce global emissions by 5.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2030 and by 10.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2045.
